The Ol' Ballfield

A Great Problem to Have: Managing the Yankees' Astounding Lineup

by Carnival Matleuse
October 2, 2006
All data valid through games of October 1, 2006



It seems like the only thing anyone really knows for sure about lineups is the following:

1) The higher up the lineup you are, the more at bats you get.
2) Having a bunch of lefties in a row makes the other team's bullpen stronger.

There are a lot of tips for making a proper lineup. Speedy on-base guy leading off, good contact hitter number two, power hitters at three and four. This of course will only play out exactly how you want it to in the first inning; after that, it's a crap-shoot as to in what scenarios guys will come up to bat. Billy Martin picked his lineup out of a hat for a while.... and it didn't make much of a difference. "Not much of a difference", however, is still a difference, the kind that can be magnified in the playoffs, and intensely magnified in a five-game series. As far as the scenario only playing out in the first inning... well, most of the runs scored in MLB play are scored in the first inning, by a long shot. This may be evidence that while batting orders aren't as sure as we think they are, big-league managers probably know what they're doing in terms of maximizing production... at least in the first.

It's playoff time and I want to talk playoff baseball. And one lineup that has already been released is the most potent lineup in baseball, recent memory... and perhaps history. The New York Yankees' scorecard, barring injury, will look like this on Tuesday night:

1. Johnny Damon CF (L)
2. Derek Jeter SS (R)
3. Bobby Abreu RF (L)
4. Gary Sheffield 1B (R)
5. Jason Giambi DH (L)
6. Alex Rodriguez 3B (R)
7. Hideki Matsui LF (L)
8. Jorge Posada C (S)
9. Robinson Cano 2B (R)

Only in New York would the kid with the third-best batting average in the league be bringing up the rear. There is a lot to talk about in that lineup, but what still intrigues me the most is what no one is talking about: Damon and Jeter at the top.

1. Leadoff

Johnny Damon was brought to New York to be the leadoff hitter and a warm body in center field. There is little question about his role with the team. Leadoff hitters must do two things: they must get on base at a very good clip, and they must run the bases expertly. Does Johnny Damon do these things?

The easiest way to tell how well someone gets on base is on base percentage. Damon's comes in at .359 for the 2006 season and .353 for his career. Those are pretty average numbers, and for the leadoff hitter of the best lineup in baseball, they are pretty unimpressive. In fact, if hitting leadoff were decided by OBP alone (not a bad long-term strategy, considering you are maximizing at-bats for this person), Damon would be the eighth-best leadoff hitter on his team. Jeter's is nearly 60 points higher.

Running, however, is also a big factor in determining who leads off, and one might argue that Jeter's OBP is higher because Damon's potential on the basepaths combined with the power down the lineup causes Jeter to see more pitches. Power down the lineup is hard to argue with, although it should be mentioned that not only does Jeter lead his team in average, his .483 slugging percentage is the best of his career. He ranks third on the team in walks, and third on the team in strikeouts. It's tough from this information to make the argument that Jeter is getting that much of a benefit from his lineup. As far as Damon's running prowess is concerned, he has 25 stolen bases, second on the team. He has also been caught 10 times, by twofold the most on his team. Using the analysis put forth by Prospectus that to be effective a basestealer must be successful approximately 72% of the time, Damon barely makes that mark. Effectively, he is an average base-stealer, but he does still STEAL more bases than a normal runner, making him a threat to throw the pitcher's rhythm.

It has been said throughout his career that Jeter is the "prototypical" two-hole hitter. I've never thought this was enough reason to keep him from leading off. In 2004 he led off for 62 games, putting up a .293/.354/.510 line (henceforth BA/OBP/SLG), with 13 of his 23 homers. He hits better than Damon, plays more than Damon, walks slightly more than Damon, and hits for slightly more extra base hits than Damon. All things being equal it comes down to baserunning; Jeter is recognized as one of if not the best baserunner in the league. He has nine more stolen bases than Damon and has been caught five fewer times. Jeter should be leading off for the Yankees. Why not hit 'em with everything ya got up front.

Of course, the Jeter-Damon punch has been the formula all year, if it ain't broke, why fix it? I would propose sending Damon to hit number nine, where his OBP belongs, preserving whatever punch there was for every inning after the first. In the NL, it's a different story, but we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

2. The Power Alley

The next big question mark in Joe's projected lineup surrounds everyone's favorite water-cooler scapegoat, Alex Rodriguez. Rodriguez will be lining up in the sixth position for the just the ninth such at-bat in his entire career on Tuesday, the first such at-bat in over seven years. Taking Rodriguez's place in his customary cleanup spot is Gary Sheffield, recently returned from a wrist injury. In his nine games back, Sheffield has gone seven-for-28 with two home runs. Nothing special, but enough to show Torre that Sheffield shouldn't be a question mark in the postseason. The question is, is it enough to warrant the clean-up spot over the Yankees' highest-paid player?

The way I've always understood the concept of the "clean-up" hitter, is such that, in the first inning, if your first three men were to get on base (presumably via walks or short singles), then you'd want your best power hitter up to hit a grand slam. Why this still prevails in baseball is beyond me, perhaps someone can explain it. Yes, the order is geared towards scoring in the first, but why take away a guaranteed AB from your most productive hitter just for the off-chance that he can drive in a few with a home run? I would say that your best power hitter should bat third or fourth; after the first, it will matter little anyway, especially with this lineup.

Rodriguez OPSed .914 on the season, second only on the Yankees to Jason Giambi. (This would be a good time to point out that in all these calculations, I am using Bobby Abreu's stats for the entire season, not just with the Yankees.) He led the team with 121 RBI, was two short of the team lead with 35 home runs, and came in third with 113 runs scored. As any of you that read the New York media know, he also managed to have a terrible season and should be traded.

Of course there is much more to it than that. Rodriguez's time in New York has been plagued with cries that he did not do well in clutch situations. Let's see if the numbers stand up to that for this year:

Bases Empty: .288/.377/.511
Runners On: .293/.404/.534
RISP: .302/.431/.508
RISP w/ 2 out: .313/.495/.475
Bases Loaded: .474/.500/.789

This indicates that Rodriguez did "pretty fucking awesome" in clutch situations this year. I don't have immediate access to inning-by-inning data, but it would be damn hard to convince me that a three-run home run in the ninth is worth more than a three-run home run in the first. Two things are certain in baseball: runs are runs and outs are outs. Speaking of outs, with runners in scoring position and two outs, Rodriguez did not get out nearly half the time. That is a number you can take to the bank.

Unfortunately, Sheffield's lack of time this season means we don't have any meaningful numbers to compare. He had a pretty good return at the end of September, but Rodriguez was dynamite in September, hitting .358/.465/.691 with eight home runs and 25 RBI. Rodriguez's health is a sure thing; Sheffield's is not. Sheffield is also more likely to have to be replaced in the middle of a game, both due to health and his inexperience at first base. Rodriguez had a terrible year at third, but he, I can almost guarantee, will not be substituted for defensively this playoffs. It's better to have pinch-fielders down in the lineup than up in it.

This is, however, the playoffs. Another castigation of Rodriguez has been due to playoff performance. Let's, again, see what the numbers tell us:

Rodriguez, career:
.305/.393/.534
118 AB
6 HR

Sheffield, career:
.262/.421/.423
149 AB
6 HR

The numbers favor Rodriguez, but the numbers don't account for the stage of New York. A-Rod had a notoriously bad ALDS against Anaheim last season, going .133/.381/.200, which indicates he didn't get much to swing at. The 2004 ALCS saw A-Rod hit .258/.378/.516, certainly not bad, and his ALDS that season was a .421/.476/.737 line, which is downright great. Sheffield's numbers in New York? He had a similar '05 LDS, a better '04 LCS, and a far worse '04 LDS.

Rodriguez has owned the Tigers this season, OPSing over 1.000. Sheffield had one game against them the whole year. Sheffield is a better fastball hitter, but the Tigers' game one starter, Nate Robertson, has a low-90s fastball. Once on base, Rodriguez is incomparably better on the basepaths.

Is Joe Torre attempting to "send a message" or challenge Rodriguez with this placement? My question would be, why? Rodriguez, having his "head cas-iest" year yet, but put up better numbers than anyone on his team save Jeter and Giambi. What's the message Joe would be sending? "I listen to the media?" Not a good message for one of the most respected managers in baseball. Alex Rodriguez should be hitting third or fourth, with the other spot going to Giambi; these two are, by far, the best power hitters on the team.

3. The Bottom

The Yankees' weakest hitter in this lineup is Jorge Posada, who has actually been having an age- and injury-defying season, putting up a .274/.374/.492 line with 23 home runs, good for fourth on the power-stocked Bombers. Sticking him at eighth is a great idea; the Yankees have enough options to put someone that can hit like Damon or Cano in the nine slot to keep the order powerful no matter where it falls at the beginning of an inning. Cano is the Yankees' most inexperienced and arguably most undisciplined hitter (although his average .365 OBP is still better than Damon's), and the nine-slot is a great place to put someone that can bring fireworks, but for intangible reasons may be a question mark.

My favorite thing about Torre's batting order is the complete alternation of left and right-handed hitters. He has managed to do this while still creating a very sensible (despite all my bitching) order, thereby decreasing the chances of a lefty specialist (Jamie Walker) coming in and handling the Yankees late.

4. Carnival's Solution

Am I satisfied with this order? Yes. Do I think I could do it better? Naturally. Here is AL Manager of the Year Carnival Matleuse's proposed batting order:

1. Jeter (R)
2. Abreu (L)
3. Rodriguez (R)
4. Giambi (L)
5. Sheffield (R)
6. Matsui (L)
7. Cano (R)
8. Posada (S)
9. Damon (L)

Cano has been a better hitter than Damon this season, so I'd trade his OBP up for Damon's power down. (Decide for yourself who has better power; Damon has nine more home runs, Cano forty more points of SLG.) Abreu is a good contact hitter (.292./.424/.462) to hit behind Jeter, while Matsui is still returning to form after a season-long injury. Every other move has been explained above and I still managed to maintain the L/R alternation.

The one issue left is protection. Even Magic Johnson knows that. I think that with the Yankees' lineup, the issue of protection is negligible. If you want to argue that Matsui is better protection for Posada than Cano, go ahead. Other than that I think you're trading six of one for a half dozen of the other. Put anybody on base unnecessarily, and these guys will make you pay.

But, nobody asked Carnival. Nobody ever does. Enjoy the postseason, everyone!

posted by Carnival @ 10/03/2006