The Ol' Ballfield

LiveBlogging the World Series, Game Four

Let's try not to let Jeff Suppan's political views (see below) distract us one way or the other; it's time for game four! The game could be suspended by rain, but there is no word yet. According to weather.com, there's a 50% chance of rain throughout the game. No official ruling on MLB.com, we'll just have to tune in.

UPDATE: Media liason Joe Buck has said that the rain is due to let up at about 9:20 EDT, and the game should start shortly after that. Oh well, I don't mind waiting a bit for ball. More analysis will follow during the delay.

NEW UPDATE: Now they're saying 10:15 EDT. Late night baseball! Also, blogger sucks and is really giving me trouble with publishing. Not sure if the LiveBlog will be so live tonight, folks.....

FINAL UPDATE: Game's rained out. Won't be able to do a LiveBlog tomorrow, but everything you find below still stands.

Lineups

DETROIT:

1. Curtis Granderson, CF
2. Craig Monroe, LF
3. Carlos Guillen, SS
4. Magglio Ordoñez, RF
5. Sean Casey, 1B
6. Ivan Rodriguez, C
7. Placido Polanco, 2B
8. Brandon Inge, 3B
9. Jeremy Bonderman, P

ST. LOUIS:

1. David Eckstein, SS
2. Chris Duncan, RF
3. Albert Pujols, 1B
4. Jim Edmonds, CF
5. Scott Rolen, 3B
6. Preston Wilson, LF
7. Yadier Molina, C
8. Aaron Miles, 2B
9. Jeff Suppan, Hidden Political Agenda, I mean P

The big story, that is, what warranted a headline on MLB.com, is the dropping of Placido Polanco to the eight-spot. The ALCS MVP, it has been well-documented, is hitless in this World Series. Guillen had normally been hitting fifth, and has earned his spot at number three as (arguably) the Tigers' best hitter this season. His OPS of .920 was the only of Tiger regular above .900. For St. Louis there are few surprises; the inclusion of slugger Chris Duncan is a no-brainer; his OPS against righties is nearly .600 points higher than against lefties. Preston Wilson kept his spot after going 1-for-3 last night with two walks.

Pitching Matchup

Jeremy Bonderman
14-8, 4.08, 202 K, 64 BB, 1.30 WHIP, .312 OBPA, 38.3 VORP
Postseason: 1-0, 3.00, 7 K, 3 BB, 0.93 WHIP, .237 OBPA
Last Start: vs. OAK (W 6-3), ND, 6 2/3 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 3 K, 2 BB, 1 HR

vs.

Jeff Suppan
12-7, 4.12, 104 K, 69 BB, 1.45 WHIP, .343 OBPA, 26.9 VORP
Postseason: 1-1, 1.86, 9 K, 9 BB, 1.03 WHIP, .269 OBPA
Last Start: @ NYM (W 3-1), ND, 7 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 K, 5 BB, 0 HR

Suppan is having a really good postseason, despite a frightening walk total. Bonderman, however, has trumped him. Bonderman was perfect through five against New York in what would be the deciding game of the ALDS, and was solid in the start displayed above, although his ass would later be saved by the most famous home run of the 2006 postseason (Sorry, So). Suppan at first glance matches up good with the Tiger offense, as he can keep the sluggers off balance with good command of his cutter, curve and change. He has trouble getting a strikeout when he needs one, though, with no real "go-to" pitch. Suppan is very able to keep St. Louis in the game, but don't expect him to dominate; in fact a couple mistakes in a row could lead to a big inning for the Tigers faster than Suppan maybe have displayed on the way to his NLCS MVP. Bonderman has more dominant stuff, and is getting better control of it all the time. His fastball is mid-90s, but has been known to hit 98 when he reaches back, and he controls it well at his age. Bonderman has a hot slider and a somewhat ineffective changeup. If his control is spot-on as it was in New York, the Tigers could easily even the series tonight. If, however, he has some problems with his location as Justin Verlander did in game one, St. Louis could be looking at the commanding 3-1 lead. With Duncan, Pujols, and Edmonds stacked at the top of that lineup, things could go wrong if Bonderman is off at the wrong time.

-The World Series gives us a certain something we only get for two other weeks out of the year, and before that not at all: AL pitchers batting. Whether or not a pitcher's mound contribution is far greater than at the plate, that is a spot in the order, and it is valuable. How do the starters, who figure to be in the game the longest, stack up against each other?

Jeremy Bonderman
2006: 0-4, 4 K, 0 SH
Career: 0-19, 12 K, 0 SH

Jeff Suppan
2006: .218/.295/.236, .198 EqA, 5 BB, 11 K, 1 2B, 9 SH
Career: .195/.241/.223, .170 EqA, 12 BB, 53 K, 4 2B, 1 HR, 35 SH

I'd say ol' Soupy has the edge! He's even enjoying a better year at the plate than he's used to.

-In an earlier post about the Tigers, I made the claim (based on data from The Hardball Times) that Detroit had the best fielding team in the league. At that point, Brandon Inge set out to destroy my reputation. His fielding numbers during the season were excellent; despite having 22 errors, fourth among third basemen, he ranks sixth in double plays turned, first in range factor, and put up 38 FRAR. In the playoffs he's muffed balls, missed throws, and gotten bowled over by Scott Rolen, giving up a run. Is he the Alex Rodriguez of fielding? No, because that is stupid. He is, however, doing badly enough to have Jim Leyland put in a defensive replacement for him in the form of Neifi Perez, in a rather nonsensicle double-switch. Of course, Inge's numbers may be inflated by a Tiger pitching staff that induced many ground balls during the season. Inge does rank fourth in the AL with 5.5 defensive win shares, however.

The Tigers have come to Inge's "defense" (har!), saying publicly that "hell, he gets ta mar balls then them other fielders, sos he makes more errors thereon, quandary!" That's not a direct quote, but I'm skeptical of the claim that Inge's increased range causes more errors. The bottom line for a scorer deciding what is an error is: If the play was made correctly, what would the outcome have been? If Inge is getting to balls an average fielder wouldn't, his mishandling of those particular balls shouldn't really count against him in the error department, unless he does things like hurry a throw, as he has already done more than once this postseason.

I think the evidence points to Inge as being an above average but undisciplined fielder. This is his second full year at third, and it can be expected that he will become more and more comfortable with the position as time goes on, unless he's the Alex Rodriguez of third base! Inge is an inconsistent fielder that for whatever reason had a great year in 2006 for a great defense in Detroit.

posted by Carnival @ 10/25/2006