LiveBlogging the NLCS, Game Six
Tonight could be the clincher for St. Louis, and I'll be providing you with half-assed commentary the whole way. Here are the starting lineups:St. Louis
1. David Eckstein, SS
2. Scott Spiezio, LF
3. Albert Pujols, 1B
4. Jim Edmonds, CF
5. Juan Encarnacion, RF
6. Scott Rolen, 3B
7. Ronnie Belliard, 2B
8. Yadier Molina, C
9. Chris Carpenter, P
New York
1. Jose Reyes, SS
2. Paul Lo Duca, C
3. Carlos Beltran, CF
4. Carlos Delgado, 1B
5. David Wright, 3B
6. Shawn Green, RF
7. Jose Valentin, 2B
8. Endy Chavez, LF
9. John Maine, P
Edmonds is bumped up to cleanup, where he was for the Cardinals' 9-6 victory in game two. Disgruntled Rolen is in the lineup, albeit at sixth. No argument here; Rolen is a sure thing at third, but is OPSing a paltry .494 in the postseason. I would like to see Chris Duncan in the place of Spiezio; despite a couple big hits, Spiezio is one of the few Cardinal regulars batting worse than Rolen. Duncan is also a left-handed bat against the right-handed Maine; why not use Spiezio's switch-hitting in a matchup situation later against the Mets' powerful bullpen?
Pitching matchup:
Chris Carpenter
Reg. Season: 15-8, 3.09, 184 K, 43 BB, 1.07 WHIP, .279 OBPA, 68.0 VORP
Postseason: 2-0, 3.93, 25 K, 15 BB, 1.42 WHIP, .346 OBPA
Last start: @ NYM (W, 9-6) ND, 5.0 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 1 K, 4 BB, 2 HR
vs.
John Maine
Reg. Season: 6-5, 3.60, 71 K, 33 BB, 1.13 WHIP, .287 OBPA, 20.1 VORP
Postseason: 0-0, 4.32, 8 K, 7 BB, 1.80 WHIP, .395 OBPA
Last start: vs. STL (L, 6-9) ND, 4.0 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 3 K, 5 BB, 1 HR
These two last met in game two, and neither pitcher fared particularly well then. Maine has a real problem with his strikeout-to-walk ratio, and Carpenter also exhibited control problems last week. Willie Randolph is hoping to get a lot of time out of Maine, especially since long-reliever Darren Oliver is a possibility to start a deciding game seven. The Cardinals are very, very beatable, but Maine can't allow the Redbirds' lineup to get good spurts against him.
If any lineup can beat Carpenter, it's the Mets'. With some good left-handed hitting, this could be another long night for last year's Cy Young winner. They could, however, go anemic as they did against righty Jeff Suppan in game three.
Should be a good game, check back for updates.
Pre-game:
-Oh, goody, an interview with Todd Jones coming up! Yuck.
-"I'm rollin' with my rims"? Yeesh. Why is FOX always trying to combine sports with pop culture? It's like if Bill Simmons had his own network. I shudder at the thought of it.
-I'm sorry, did Kevin Kennedy just say that both of Kenny Rogers' postseason starts were on the road?! Yankee and Athletic fans will tell you that is not true. How hard is it to be right about this stuff, seriously?
-When comparing Maine and Carpenter, FOX uses Carpenter's 4-0 postseason record, and Maine's four innings from last week. Carpenter's postseason has been shaky despite his record, but even if you are going to use a stupid stat, why not make it even and mention Maine's 0-0 record?! I hate hate HATE FOX.
TOP 1st:
-Glad to see the Mets are going with the pinstripes. I don't like the basic whites as much... although both are much better than the blacks, which look like BP jerseys.
-I was waiting until after the Pujols at-bat to comment on Maine. It wasn't a badly-pitched at-bat. If you can throw five straight heaters at Pujols and not get hit, you're locating them well. And even though Tim McCarver said that Maine "hung" the curveball, it actually was a good pitch; Pujols dug it out from his ankles, as Pujols is known to do.
-Great block by Lo Duca. Calm down, meat. Make your pitches. I swear this lineup is not as scary as it looks.
-Got out of it. Let's see if Maine can build off that.
0 R, 2 H, 0 E, 3 LOB
St. Louis 0, New York 0
BOTTOM 1st:
-There's that left-handed hitting.... Cy Carpenter is hiding in this series. I love Reyes' golf home run swing.
-"'Legit' #1 starter" and "First things first" do not mean anything. How is that a scouting report? I hate hate hate HATE FOX.
1 R, 1 H, 0 E, 0 LOB
New York 1, St. Louis 0
TOP 2nd:
-Another supid scouting report. Also, McCarver doesn't even elaborate, he just reads the text off the screen.
-Aaaaaaagggghhhh the "keys to the game" are even worse aaaaaagggghhhhhh. Wow, Maine is the sixth rookie pitcher to start an LCS game with his team facing elimination. I italicized all the modifiers in that sentence. WHO CARES? Okay, I'll stop complaining about FOX for a while.
0 R, 0 H, 0 E, 0 LOB
New York 1, St. Louis 0
BOTTOM 2nd:
-I wonder how much Carpenter's great numbers are inflated by his division? The answer later.
0 R, 1 H, 0 E, 0 LOB
New York 1, St. Louis 0
TOP 3rd:
-Not much. He has a sick 0.92 ERA against Pittsburgh, but he also has a 6.00 ERA against Milwaukee. He has bad and good numbers against other teams from around the league. Boring answer, sorry.
-The first walk for Maine. This could open up the floodgates.
-McCarver just said that Cardinal hitters have to lay off Maine's "high-riding" fastball, and wait for him to get the ball down. I don't know, if that high-riding fastball is anything but great, it could be a home run ball pretty easily. How close was Pujols on those two fouls straight back?
-Lo Duca having a great game behind the plate so far. If I cared, I'd want him to win the Gold Glove.
-No, no, no, Willie! Why are you walking Pujols to get to Edmonds, who hit a home run off of Maine last game, while Pujols has been having a sub-par series? Why are you walking anyone at all when you have a one-run lead?
-Edmonds just missed that one. I stand by my criticism of Randolph.
-Encarnacion did not "just" miss that one. Chalk one up to McCarver on the "lay off the high fastball" strategy. Hey, that reminds me of A League of Their Own. "Lay off the high ones!" "I like the high ones!" Oh, Geena Davis!
0 R, 1 H, 0 E, 2 LOB
New York 1, St. Louis 0
BOTTOM 3rd:
-Carpenter has a terrible pickoff move. He might as well take a three-step drop. Maybe that's why Molina's CS numbers are so high.
-Lo Duca's walking-to-the-plate music is "Stayin' Alive"! There are so many reasons to like this guy.
-Ever notice how the best any kind of player any former player has ever seen played at the same time as the commenter? That was a convoluted sentence.
-I don't care who you are, no man deserves to have Ronnie Belliard fall on him.
0 R, 1 H, 0 E, 1 LOB
New York 1, St. Louis 0
TOP 4th:
-Maine is starting to put it all together. After a shaky first couple, he is starting to buckle down and take my advice about the Cardinals' lineup.
-McCarver: "A bad walk for John Maine and the Mets, but not for the Cardinals." Thank you.
-Why, we've got ourselves a mini-pitchers' duel, with neither pitcher being particularly dominant. All it's gonna take is one team breaking it open to decide the game.
0 R, 0 H, 0 E, 1 LOB
New York 1, St. Louis 0
BOTTOM 4th:
-Jeez Chris, where's that deuce been all night?
-Yes, Joe Buck, Delgado could have hit that harder. He could have hit it so hard that it went over the fence.
-Shawn Green gets lucky to the tune of an RBI. That's two hits that have gotten through to Eckstein's right. Maybe he's shading a little too far.
1 R, 2 H, 0 E, 2 LOB
New York 2, St. Louis 0
TOP 5th:
-The ol' behind-the-back and Maine is starting to look like a big-leaguer.
-That pitch to Pujols was a lot like the one Pujols hit in the 1st... only better. Last week I said that Maine had to have more strikeouts than walks to win the game. Tonight: 5 K, 3 BB.
0 R, 0 H, 0 E, 0 LOB
New York 2, St. Louis 0
BOTTOM 5th:
-Chad Bradford was warming up in the pen at the end of that last inning. In 13 1/3 career postseason innings pitched, Bradford has never allowed an earned run. His rate stats: .308 OBPA and 1.05 WHIP.
-Met fans will get mad at me for this, but Reyes is having a Derek Jeter-type game, spraying hits all over the field.
-Not a great play by Belliard. If Eckstein catches that he has a very real chance at a double play. I should give him credit, though, for not trying to cut the lead runner after grabbing it.
0 R, 1 H, 0 E, 1 LOB
New York 2, St. Louis 0
TOP 6th:
-Maine's line: 5.1 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 5 K
Still too many walks, but you can't argue with 5 1/3 of scoreless ball. Nice job to the rookie. With Bradford coming in, look for the Mets to get out of this one. Rolen is a prime GIDP candidate.
-Bradford on the season has inherited 53 runners, and only 10 have scored. That ain't bad. Looks like he's found a niche on his third team in three years.
-And there's the GIDP. Once Carpenter leaves the game, I want to see Rolen out, Spiezio to third, and Chris Duncan in the game.
0 R, 0 H, 0 E, 0 LOB
New York 2, St. Louis 0
BOTTOM 6th:
-Carpenter is really starting to remind me of Justin Verlander, only with more hardware. If that curve is working, it is nigh unhittable. Big If.
0 R, 0 H, 0 E, 0 LOB
New York 2, St. Louis 0
TOP 7th:
-If Molina gets on here, you gotta pinch-hit with Duncan and do the double-switch. Take care of this game TONIGHT.
-Bradford's pickoff move is also submarine! I never noticed that.
-I might still put Duncan in. The Cardinals' bullpen is good.
-I am a cot-damn genius. Here comes Feliciano. This series: 4.2 IP, 1.93 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, .222 OBPA. Duncan is OPSing a cool .593 against lefties this year, without that HR last night of course.
-WHAT?! Okay, the homer last night, sure, but you are looking at a difference of .600 in OPS! This is dumb. Get Feliciano out there.
-This NLCS crew should be censured. The strike zones are terrible.
-Still dumb, GIDP notwithstanding.
0 R, 1 H, 0 E, 0 LOB
New York 2, St. Louis 0
BOTTOM 7th:
-Randolph's handling of the pitching staff is actually quite good. The Mets lead the NL (in a tie with Houston) in shutouts this season; only three of those came on complete games.
-So how do people like Luis Gonzalez, Al Leiter, Vernon Wells, Eric Byrnes, or even Bret Boone get these gigs when their teams are out? Are they selected? Or is there actually an application process, and these guys are legitimately interested?
-I can't BELIEVE LaRussa didn't double switch. Get Rolen out of the damn game, Duncan will be much, much more useful.
-Braden Looper lives for this.
-Prospectus is right. It is really unbelievable that Lastings Milledge is not on this postseason roster.
-Spiezio, 2006: 4 FRAR
Duncan, 2006: 6 FRAR
Not a big difference, but who knows about that catch....?
Of course, most will argue that Rolen's sparkling glove should be in at third. I'll bet more of the Mets' lineup will spray opposite field shots to LF than rockets to third.
-Molina usually gets that one. Sometimes I don't know about the pitch-out on a steal, it seems to upset the rhythm of a catcher used to throwing people out from the squat, or at least having to get out of it. But it works more often than not.
-I also don't know about the fake-to-third-look-to-first move. What does it accomplish? If you do mess someone up, and you put it in play, you are risking a run no matter what. That is more likely to fall in the runners' favor than the fielders'.
-Lo Duca comes up huge. That Reyes steal just makes things worse. And there's really nothing a catcher can do about it (even if the middle infielders are covering). I always thought on that play that catcher should make a convincing fake throw to second and see if he can catch the runner off third.
-Braden Looper does not live for this.
2 R, 3 H, 1 E, 2 LOB
New York 4, St. Louis 0
TOP 8th:
-Uh oh, here comes another HP Player Personality! And no, Joe Buck, we don't all remember when Scott Spiezio was on "She Spies". I certainly don't.
-So much for Heilman being a candidate to start tomorrow. I don't think it was such a bad idea, myself.
0 R, 1 H, 0 E, 1 LOB
New York 4, St. Louis 0
BOTTOM 8th:
-Thank you, Tim McCarver, for expressing the opinion that Tyler Johnson was not throwing at Shawn Green. I'm sure if he wanted to send a message to Green, the top of the 8th in game six of the NLCS is not when he would have done it.
-Valentin has left four runners on base today. So has Scott Rolen.
-Thank you, Tim McCarver, for being one of the first people I've ever heard use the word "bevy" without the word "veritable" in front of it.
-I think there's at least a small part of every baseball fan that wants to see Julio Franco do well. How do you not root for a 48-year-old? Unless you're a Mets fan, I mean.
0 R, 0 H, 0 E, 1 LOB
New York 4, St. Louis 0
TOP 9th:
-I don't have any baseball-related commentary left in me. All I can think of is Billy Wagner looks like a turtle.
-Oops, that gives me something. After my last LiveBlog, I stated that Wagner's next outing would be a quality one. Please don't prove me wrong. and WHY IS SCOTT ROLEN STILL PLAYING AAAAAAAAAAAAAAA.
-Sorry about that. Everyone is proving me wrong tonight. Wagner is hanging more shit than a framer.
-Sorry about that.
-So... Taguchi? Randolph made the Mota move based on one recent performance... will LaRussa's pay off?
-WOW Gary Darling. You are a veteran. Can't pull that shit.
-There it is for Taguchi. Clutch player of the decade?
-McCarver is actually right here. Why slider after slider? Something must be up with the fastball, they are setting it up way too much.
-All the pluckiness in the world couldn't save Eckstein on that one.
2 R, 3 H, 0 E, 1 LOB
FINAL: New York 4, St. Louis 2
A seven-game series is the only true justice in the baseball postseason. So much luck comes into play either way, but at least when you get a bigger sample size, you feel less cheated.
The biggest decision is obviously on Willie Randolph for tomorrow evening. He has two choices for starting pitcher:
Oliver Perez: 3-13, 6.55, 102 K, 68 BB, 1.75 WHIP, .370 OBPA (w/ NY), -14.3 VORP
Darren Oliver: 4-1, 3.44, 60 K, 21 BB, 1.12 WHIP, .284 OBPA, 21.7 VORP
This postseason:
Perez: 5.2 IP, 1-0, 7.94, 3 K, 1 BB, 1.76 WHIP, .385 OBPA
Oliver: 7.1 IP, 0-0, 3.68, 3 K, 1 BB, 0.95 WHIP, .269 OBPA
I mean, is there even a decision to make here? Kevin Kennedy seemed to think that not having started in a couple years will shake Oliver's confidence, and also that he is more valuable coming out of the pen than Perez. I definitely agree with the second point, but I also believe that Randolph giving him the ball will do wonders for his confidence. Perez can be dominant, but he is a veritable heart monitor, and you never know what you're going to get. In game seven, go with the guy that's given you quality innings all year. Go with Oliver. If he gets in trouble, get a couple innings out of Glavine until you get to your excellent bullpen. This should be Randolph's game plan.
The Cardinals will have Jeff Suppan throwing, who pitched eight shutout innings against New York in game three. This was a stark contrast to his start against the Mets on May 16, when he gave up four earned over 6 2/3. He also had a shaky start against San Diego in the LDS, giving up six hits and three earned over 4 1/3. I am inclined to believe that the Mets will be energized by tonight's win, and won't fall victim to Suppan in game seven.
My prediction: New York 7, St. Louis 3. Of course, what I think will happen is that Oliver Perez will start, because I don't trust Randolph. But I think it will just be a matter of where those three runs come from. In my experience, a team that doesn't close out a clinching game six on the road is a team that has made a big mistake. Combine that with the fact that New York is a better baseball team and St. Louis shouldn't have even made the playoffs, and I place my money on the Mets.
posted by Carnival @ 10/18/2006
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