The Ol' Ballfield

Theo Epstein: Money Shot (Plus, A Lil' Somethin' About Rey Ordoñez!)

So the Boston Red Sox won the Matsuzaka sweepstakes with a $51.1 million dollar bid to the Seibu Lions to negotiate with the righty.

That's $51,100,000.

EDIT: This is the largest posting bid since the Mariners spent $13.1 million for the right to negotiate Ichiro Suzuki away from the the Orix BlueWave. Ichiro won the MVP his first year in the bigs.

This brings up the interesting point of how to structure a contract when such a hefty bid is involved. How does a team reconcile a) the total amount of money it spends on a pitcher with b) the amount of money Matsuzaka (and, more importantly, Scott Boras) believes himself to be worth.

At Baseball Prospectus, Christina Kahrl demonstrated that Matsuzaka's numbers in Japan, when translated, equal out to Roger Clemens' numbers from 2003-06. Clemens earned an average of $11.4 million during those years; an equal contract for Matsuzaka would be, over a five-year period, five years for $55 million. A good Hardball Times article puts forth that with the workload Matsuzaka had been under so far in his career, anything after age 31 is not a guarantee. A three-year contract would be the smartest thing, and that is probably around what Boras will be looking for, so that his client doesn't lose value before his next negotiation period.

EDIT: I've re-thought a lot of this. Clemens' contract over the past three years is not one to judge anything by, considering he made $10 million in '03, $5 million in '04, and $18 million in '05. BUT if you think the top pitcher on this year's market (has to be Barry Zito) will get five years for $75 million, that's not THAT much more than what we projected for Matsuzaka. But we (I) will use that figure if it makes everyone more comfortable.

The Red Sox can get a pitcher worth $45 million over three years. So far they've paid $50 million and they haven't said a word to him yet.

Other things that must be considered are the specificities of Boston's situation.

1) The AL East

Did the Red Sox splurge on Matsuzaka just to keep him away from the Yankees? This would be their best excuse. The Red Sox and Yankees both have rotations that are big question marks for 2007, but the Yankees' lineup is far and away better. Taking away this seemingly easy option for New York was a good move towards being competitive in the East in 2007 for Boston.

2) Boston's Image in the Japanese Market

This is another big plus for the Red Sox. Teams that have firmly implanted themselves with big signings in Asia include the Dodgers (Hideo Nomo), Mariners (Ichiro Suzuki), White Sox (Tahidito Iguchi) and Yankees (Hideki Matsui). If Boston wants to be competitive on a global-marketing level, this is an excellent move for the franchise. Matsuzaka is the highest-profile player to come out of Japan... maybe ever.

3) The Ballpark

This is the big question mark. Since 2003, four high-profile pitchers have come to Boston:

-Curt Schilling, 2004-06
-David Wells, 2005-mid '06
-Matt Clement, 2005-06
-Josh Beckett, 2006

Of those seven man-seasons (Clement's 2006 can effectively be called a half-season), one produced a pitcher pitching at or under his career ERA: Schilling's 2004. Either Boston has not made smart signings, or Boston is just not a place where pitchers do well. The latter we know to be true; Fenway is perennially one of the best hitter's parks in the game. Only Beckett saw his home run rate go noticably upward, but then, these are all righties; many of the home runs they give up are not affected by the monster. Has Fenway taken a toll? If so, it's hard to imagine the same effect would not appear with Matsuzaka. Another thing worth noting is that Schilling, Clement, and Beckett were all coming off of predominantly National League careers. This can be viewed as a parallel to coming out of Japan. (Not a DIRECT parallel, NL fans, but a similar circumstance.)

Money in Boston is (almost) like money in New York; it's not a pressing issue. Matsuzaka deserves his three years $30 million, even if the BoSox went overboard on the post. More than that, however, and Boston is SERIOUSLY overpaying for someone that's never pitched a game against major-league hitting.

Now, I promised you some Rey Ordoñez didn't I?

Seattle has signed him to a minor-league contract.

Here are some of Ordoñez's career numbers, in the equivalent of almost seven full seasons:

.246/.289/.310
12 HR
28 SB, 24 CS
60 OPS+
.214 EqA

Here is his best season, 1999:

.258/.319/.317
24 2B
1 HR
69 OPS+
.227 EqA

Is the Mariners' farm system so depleted that their best backup plan for Yuniesky Betancourt is this? They've got an Australian named Dean Zorn, whose minor league numbers are... hmmm, maybe this wasn't a bad signing. And if this wasn't a bad signing, that is a real bad sign. Can Ichiro play short??

You know what, at Ordoñez's age (35), I can see no logical reason for this signing. He was a pretty good fielder, but not playing a major league game since 2004 can't help, and he ain't getting any younger, and no matter how you slice it, his hitting will hurt you more than his defense will help you, by a long shot, especially in the AL. Just no logic here.

posted by Carnival @ 11/14/2006