The Ol' Ballfield

Arizona Fall League Hitters Update

Who knows how long it will be until we see Major League ball again, so let's take a look at who's performing well in the southwest winter league:

Batting

Chip Cannon (Toronto) - 1B, Phoenix Desert Dogs
DOB: 11/30/1981, B:L T:R, 6'5", 225, The Citadel
Selected by Toronto in the eighth round of the 2004 amateur draft.

Cannon is hitting .372/.472/.767 in 12 games, and shares the league lead with five home runs, two of which have come in his last two games. On Wednesday he went 4-for-6 with a home run, a double, and three RBI in a 23-9 rout of the Peoria Javelinas. It could be inferred that Cannon is playing a bit over his head, as in 135 games with New Hampshire in the Eastern League this year, his OBP was only .335, and he strikes out more than once a game. He did hit 27 home runs with New Hampshire, however.

Most impressive are Cannon's numbers in big situations: with runners on he is 9-for-17 with three home runs and 12 RBI. His number with RISP are almost as impressive.

Cannon put up numbers close to this with Dunedin of the Class A-Advanced Florida State League last season, but again suffered when he faced the pitching of AA New Hampshire. A third straight mediocre season in AA would be a bad sign for Cannon, who turns 25 at the end of the month.


Ryan Braun (Milwaukee) - 3B, Scottsdale Scorpions
DOB: 11/17/1983, B:R T:R, 6'2", 200, Miami (FL)
Selected by Milwaukee in the first round of the 2005 amateur draft.

Braun has been moving up through the minors at a steady pace since being drafted fifth overall in 2005. Starting last year with Helena in the Rookie ball Pioneer league, he was promoted to West Virginia of the South Atlantic league. He started 2006 with Brevard County of the Florida State League and finished with 59 games with Huntsville of the Southern League. He hit .303/.367/.589 with Huntsville, and hit 15 home runs. This fall with Scottsdale he is .311/.385/.756 with five home runs in 45 at-bats. Braun has also been called "by far the top Jewish prospect in baseball", for what it's worth.

Interesting about Braun is the fact that he has 500 points more of OPS against righties than lefties this fall. I don't know enough about the minors to say definitively why this is, but I'd guess that either a) the LHP talent in A ball and below is not very good, so he's finally seeing some good pitches from a southpaw, or b) he's just naturally a better righties hitter. Braun also has impressive situational numbers, OPSing 1.556 with runners on and 1.524 with RISP. And only .446 (that's an OPS) with the bases empty...

I would guess (CONJECTURE WARNING) that Braun will start the season with Huntsville next year, but expect to see him in Nashville (AAA) at least once before the season is out. And hey, if the Brewers' three-deep at third continues to look like this, who knows?


Kevin Frandsen (San Francisco) - 2B, Scottsdale Scorpions
DOB: 5/24/1982, B:R T:R, 6'0", 175, San Jose State
Selected by San Francisco in the 12th round of the 2004 amateur draft.

Frandsen, Braun's teammate at Scottsdale, caught my attention because of one number: .537, his on base percentage. He also leads the league with a .406 batting average. (.406! .406!) This has to be heartening to Giants brass who saw Frandsen hit .215/.284/.323 in 41 games in the majors this season. That's not an overly discouraging start for a 24-year-old (especially with his two home runs), but a hot season in Arizona could solidify his status as the successor to Ray Durham. Frandsen has equalled that home run total in nine games with Scottsdale, and is OPSing over 1.000 in every split except home games. He was used primarily as a pinch-hitter down the stretch for San Fran after returning from a fractured jaw, but started the Giants' final three games. He is also a blogger.


Josh Whitesell (Washington) - 1B, Peoria Saguaros
DOB: 4/14/1982, B:L T:L, 6'3", 220, Loyola Marymount
Selected by Montreal in the sixth round of the 2003 amateur draft.

Whitesell is posting a .394/.488/.758 line with Peoria this fall, with two home runs, 11 RBI, and nine strikeouts in nine games. He is DESTROYING left-handers with a 1.848 OPS, albeit in only 11 at-bats. Still, maybe my guess about Ryan Braun seeing better lefties in Arizona was way off the mark...

After tearing it up with Potomac of the Carolina League (A+) last season, Whitesell regressed significantly in 2006, going .264/.354/.433 with double-A Harrisburg of the Eastern League. While his PECOTA projections are, um, less than flattering, Whitesell is impressing down in Arizona. Don't, however, expect him to crack the majors next year; unless he can produce like this for a long period of time in the minors proper, there's no way Whitesell will see RFK any time soon.


Hunter Pence (Houston) - LF, Mesa Solar Sox
DOB: 4/13/1983, B:R T:R, 6'4", 220, University of Texas-Arlington
Selected by Houston in the second round of the 2004 amateur draft.

Pence, long thought to have been drafted too highly by Houston, is hitting .340/.386/.566 in Arizona, with two home runs and six stolen bases in 13 games. After being listed as a centerfielder, many scouts thought he lacked agility despite his good speed, and suggested he'd be better off in one of the corners, where he is now. Pence's speed was demonstrated in a three-stolen base game a week ago against Scottsdale.

After an incredible start with Lexington of the Carolina League (A), and a slightly disappointing promotion to Salem of the Carolina League (A+) in 2005, Pence hit well in 2006 with the AA Corpus Christi Hooks of the Texas league, going .283/.357/.533 with 28 dingers, 95 RBI and 31 doubles, as well as 17 stolen bases. Pence has an "ungainly" swing, and chokes up a bit too much for a big hitter, but he apparently takes instruction well and will work on getting his walk total up. Look for him in Round Rock (AAA) at some point next year, but, barring a lost season for Houston in '07, I don't see him getting significant time until 2008. It could happen towards then end of next season, though.


That's your five hitter profiles in the Arizona Fall League. I'll be back with five hurlers tomorrow.

posted by Carnival @ 10/26/2006