The Ol' Ballfield

Meet the Mets! Meet the Mets! Can-the-Card-nals-BEAT the Mets?!

That question will not be answered tonight. Four other questions, however, will. They are, in order of appearance:

Tom Glavine (?)
John Maine (?)
Steve Trachsel (?)
Oliver Perez (?!)

Or, as the critics see them:

A losing postseason record.
An unproven rookie.
The slowest pitcher in baseball, long past his prime, that gave up #62 to McGwire.
You've got to be kidding.

Pitching was to be the big problem for the Mets, a big enough problem that their star-studded lineup might not make it past the Dodgers. Pedro Martinez, the ace of the staff, would not return until mid-2007 due to injury, and noted playoff performer Orlando Hernandez went down with a calf tear the morning of game one. New York, however, swept right past L.A., outscoring their opponents 19-11. 11 runs in three games... not bad, but not necessarily World Series caliber. Riding a seven-game winning streak, just how can the Mets do behind this rotation of question marks?

Tom Glavine

The name for game one should come as no surprise. With over 200 postseason innings pitched, Glavine is by far the most seasoned playoff veteran of this year's field. What has come into question, however, has not been his experience but his performance. Here are his career postseason numbers:

13-15, 3.34, 3 CG, 139K/82BB, 1.26 WHIP

The record is nothing to brag about, but the ERA is solid. In fact, check out these splits for Glavine:

Career LDS ERA: 4.61
Career LCS ERA: 3.31
Career WS ERA: 2.16

In his career, Glavine seems to have gotten better and better as the games got more important. More of his gems, however, came towards the beginning of his career. And what's important is not history, it's the present. Glavine's numbers in 2006:

15-7, 3.82, 131 K, 62 BB, 1.33 WHIP, 115 ERA+, 37.8 VORP

Glavine has been declining slowly for the last four years or so, but he is still, as shown here, an above average pitcher; in fact, his 37.8 VORP is the best among Mets' pitchers this season. He bookended a sub-par June and awful July with stellar opening and closing months; in ten starts since July 30, he allowed more than three earned runs only once. Glavine is a much better pitcher in Shea than away, with a road ERA of nearly two runs higher than at home. Most importantly, Glavine's last two starts, including the win in game two of the NLDS, have been stellar:

Sept. 30 @ Washington: 6.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K

Not that New York needed the help in the 13-0 win. In those six innings, Glavine threw only 71 pitches, 49 for strikes.

Oct. 6 vs. Los Angeles: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 2 K

Glavine ain't strikin' anyone out at an alarming rate, but he is pitching effectively. His pitch count was significantly higher in this one, throwing 93 pitches, 59 for strikes, but he was getting the corners and changing speeds as well as he ever does. Tommy was perfect through three in this game, and got Kenny Lofton to ground out with runners on first and third and two out in the fifth. The Mets won, 4-1.

Glavine has had only one start this season against the Cardinals:

May 17 @ St. Louis: 6.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 2 K

This game came right at the beginning of Glavine's mid-season struggles, but he still got the win, even after throwing 104 pitches, and only 60 for strikes. He allowed no hits to the top of the Cardinals' order, however, as Pujols went 0-for-4.

Glavine only had one start against St. Louis last year as well, allowing four hits and no runs in seven innings.

The playoffs are about clutch situations, and Glavine has put up good numbers this year in that arena as well. His BAA with RISP is better than otherwise, although his BAA with bases loaded is .278, not great for your top lefty. BAA with a full count: .176.

I expect Glavine to pitch well during this series; he is in the middle of a period when he should have a lot of confidence, and the St. Louis lineup has had little success against him. Don't expect him to go more than six innings, especially in a close game, as once he hits 60 pitches his BAA hits .300. Glavine, however, certainly represents the Mets' best chances in this series. For a 40-year-old lefty to be pitching this well is exactly what the decimated Mets need.

John Maine

Another man very few counted on came through for the Mets in the NLDS, and that man was rookie John Maine. Maine's 2006 numbers:

6-5, 3.60, 71 K, 33 BB, 1.15 WHIP, 122 ERA+, 15.7 VORP

Again, not dominant, but certainly above average. His ERA+ makes him look better than his VORP, but the ERA and WHIP each give signs of a good young pitcher. Maine, a 25-year-old righty, made his Mets debut in May and pitched poorly. After being sent down, he bounced back with a stellar July; although his record was 1-2 he posted a 1.63 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and .179 BAA. The final two months of the season he came back to earth, but remained a solid part of the Mets' rotation.

Maine is also riding into the NLCS on the heels of two big starts: he gave up three hits and two earned runs against Washington September 29, earning a no decision in a 4-3 win. In game one of the NLDS, unquestionably the biggest start of his career, Maine went only 4 1/3, but allowed only one earned run. The media praised Maine and were quick to question Willie Randolph's decision in relieving him, but Maine had thrown 80 pitches in those 4 1/3, and allowed nearly two baserunners an inning. Two innings later Guillermo Mota had blown the save, allowing three runs. I cannot say that Maine would have fared much better at that rate.

Maine has had the best fielding of his career on his side; his FIP for the season is 1.34 higher than his ERA. Before Wednesday, he had not allowed fewer than two runs in a start since August 6; he has not gone more than 6 1/3 since then either. In short, I don't think it's reasonable to expect any domination from Maine in this year's playoffs. His one start against St. Louis this season is also a harbringer of doom:

8/22 vs. St. Louis: 5.0 IP, 6 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 5 K

The sight of Albert Pujols should send shivers down Maine's spine. Pujols followed a three-run tater in the fourth inning of that game with a two-out grand salami in the fifth. Maybe he was pissed after Maine struck him out in the first. In any case, the playoff atmosphere gives Pujols an even greater advantage.

Maine has an excellent .169 BAA with RISP. His BAA with the bases loaded? A hefty .500.

Look for Maine to get feasted upon. His strikeouts will likely be more than made up for by his walks, and the Cardinals will take advantage.

There's more good news after this.

Steve Trachsel

15-8, 4.97, 79 K, 78 BB, 1.60 WHIP, 88 ERA+, 15.8 VORP

Trachsel is less than a month away from his 36th birthday, and he is losing street cred fast. He is coming off a September where he walked 11 batters and stuck out six. He has taken advantage of Shea as a pitcher's park to the tune of a 5.52 ERA and .297 BAA. And he just made the first postseason start of his career, which was not a success.

Well, that's being a bit harsh. Trachsel actually pitched a good first three innings. Three singles in a row in the fourth led to two Dodger runs, and when young star Andre Ethier pinch-hit for Greg Maddux, Randolph pulled Trachsel in favor of Darren Oliver. Etier lined a hard-hit ball, straight at Oliver, who caught it and caught Wilson Betemit off of third for a double play to end the inning. The Mets were still up, 4-2. The bullpen gave up three more runs, but the Mets put up five more, and took the series.

To put it bluntly, Randolph got really lucky on this one. He was lucky that this was the day after an off day, so he had a rested bullpen, and he was lucky that the Mets were up 2-0 in the series, so he could go for broke and bring in Oliver in a match-up situation in the fourth. He was also lucky his team put up nine runs in the game. With the game Trachsel had been pitching to that point, I doubt Willie takes him out in that situation in the regular season.

With THAT said, Trachsel is not a great pitcher. His ER in starts before that one look like this:

3-0-4-3-3-6-3

His record during that stretch? 4-3. Trachsel has been the beneficiary of the Mets' third-in-the-NL offense, behind only Philadephia and Atlanta with 5.15 runs a game. If the Mets DON'T score a lot of runs in this game against, say, Cy Young winner and candidate Chris Carpenter, who is scheduled for this game, Trachsel might not benefit. Glavine can out-pitch Jeff Weaver, and Maine might be able to hold his own against Jeff Suppan, but Trachsel will need a miracle to be the hero of this one.

Trachsel has two starts against St. Louis this season:

May 17 @ St. Louis: 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 2 K
Aug. 23 vs. St. Louis: 5.0 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 1 K

A gem in May for a loss; a disaster in August for a win. Go figure. The August lineup also did not feature Jim Edmonds, although Edmonds was ineffective against Trachsel in May, along with the rest of the Cardinals. This is also a tale of two ballparks, as we have shows that Trachsel has pitched terribly in Shea. Game three will be played in St. Louis. The more important story is that since the break, Trachsel has an ERA of 5.40, a BAA of .289, and more walks than strikeouts. Not good. Look for Trachsel to get knocked out early in St. Louis. It will be after an off day, though, so maybe Willie will get lucky again.

Oliver Perez

Perez came to the Mets in a waiver deal for Xavier Nady. If you showed Mets fans this name in the rotation in, oh, August, each one would have suffered a fatal heart attack. Here's why:

3-13, 6.55, 102 K, 68 BB, 1.75 WHIP, 68 ERA+, -1.6 VORP

Perez has been a worse-than-AAA pitcher this year, except for July and August, when he was actually a AAA pitcher. His VORP comes in at 22nd on the Mets this year. If the Mets were to make a 25-man roster of only pitchers, Oliver would come in at 22nd on the VORP depth chart.

Perez, however, is an enigma wrapped in a riddle. In September he held hitters to a .244 BAA while posting a 4.74 ERA. His K/BB was a very good 28/9. The biggest mystery of Perez' season, however, is this:

Sept. 6 vs. Atlanta: 9.0 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K

A complete game shutout against one of the top offensive teams in the league. True, it was the second game of a doubleheader, but the Braves did not play their scrubs: Marcus Giles, Andruw Jones, and Jeff Francoeur each got at least three-at bats. Perez threw 107 pitches, 75 for strikes. The Mets, meanwhile, scored eight runs. The next time Perez pitched against Atlanta, he was chased for six ER in 5.1 IP.

Perez' season certainly got better in New York, but not much. He didn't allow more walks than strikeouts once, but he allowed more than three ER four times. More importantly, outside of the shutout, Perez has not gone more than 5 1/3 since June 18. In the game following Trachsel, this could be big trouble.

Perez had three starts against St. Louis this season:

April 18, vs. St. Louis: 6.2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 2 K
April 24, @ St. Louis: 5.0 IP, 10 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
June 13, vs. St. Louis: 7.0 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

The last start was in June, with the Pirates. But it was good. Pujols, however, killed Perez this year, going three-for-six with a double and two home runs. Rolen is four-for-nine with three doubles. Even David Eckstein is hitting .333 off him. Right-handers in general are hitting .300 off the kid. With runners on? .332 BAA. With RISP? .340. Nearly 25% of batted balls hit off Perez this year are line drives. One of every seven fly balls he gives up leaves the park.

There is the chance that the 6-3 210 lb. lefty could pull out another gem, but I don't like that chance. The Mets' lineup needs to come through BIG TIME in this series.

Conclusions

Weaver 2006 ERA vs. NY: 7.20
Suppan 2006 ERA vs. NY: 5.40
Carpenter 2006 ERA vs. NY: No games
Marquis 2006 ERA vs. NY: 5.27

To me that looks like 2-2 after four at best for the Mets. The loss of Hernandez is much bigger than a lot of people think, compared to the loss of Pedro. The Mets did just as well post-Pedro (50-34) as they did during (47-31). Hernandez had a great September, and his postseason prowess is legendary (9-3, 2.55). His VORP of 20.0 is four runs higher than Pedro's. The Mets will be hard pressed to get two wins out of Maine, Trachsel, and Perez. They did outscore St. Louis 35-27 this season; the lineup needs to get it done for New York to have a chance. I remember saying the same thing about the other New York team pretty much exactly one week ago; for Queens' sake, and for the sake of not having a .516 team in the World Series, I hope the Metropolitans fare much, much better.

They do have this going for 'em, which is nice.

EDIT: It was announced today (10/11) that Jason Marquis is being left off of St. Louis' NLCS roster in favor of rookie Anthony Reyes. Reyes has not faced the Mets this year, and boasts a 5.06 ERA after an abysmal second half. He has peppered a few quite good starts in with some really bad ones, and I see him as being a big downgrade under a healthy Marquis. The fans in St. Louis for game four ought to get their money's worth; neither Reyes nor Perez may last more than four or five....

posted by Carnival @ 10/10/2006