The AL MVP By The Numbers
A look at some of the all-inclusive sabermetric stats, and what they have to say about this year's MVP races. (A good, funny glossary.)VORP (Value Over Replacement Player)
1. Derek Jeter, 80.5
2. Travis Hafner, 79.7
3. Johan Santana, 79.6
4. David Ortiz, 76.8
5. Grady Sizemore, 69.1
6. Roy Halladay, 68.0
7. Joe Mauer, 66.9
8. Carlos Guillen, 66.3
9. Manny Ramirez, 66.1
10. Miguel Tejada, 65.9
Add in defense and Jeter skyrockets above the rest. Also, keep in mind that he is a shortstop. What's more valuable, a DH with the second-highest VORP, or a shortstop (above-average defensively, at least this year) at first?
WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player)
1. Santana, 10.6
2. Jeter, 9.8
3. Mauer, 8.9
T4. Jermaine Dye, 8.5
T4. Sizemore, 8.5
T6. Halladay, 8.4
T6. Tejada, 8.4
8. Jonathon Papelbon, 8.2
9. Michael Young, 8.1
T10. Hafner, 8.0
T10. Joe Nathan, 8.0
WARP does account for defense, and gives Santana the edge. So what's more valuable? A shortstop that's the best hitter in the league, or a unanimous Cy Young ace? I'm tempted to go with the ace, especially given the standout quaility of Jeter's year compared to his career. But then, should that quality negatively or positively affect the voting? I'm going with negative; give the award to the guy who is least likely to be a fluke, but only go to that in a dead heat.
EqA (Equivalent Average)
1. Hafner, .355
2. Ramirez, .342
3. Ortiz, .334
4. Jim Thome, .328
5. Jason Giambi, .326
6. Mauer, .321
7. Dye, .320
8. Jeter, .316
9. Vladimir Guerrero, .314
10. Alex Rodriguez, .311
An A-Rod sighting! But more importantly, Jeter takes a hit. His lack of power hurts him in this category. This stat is getting a lot more notice, by the way. It will be interesting to see in the next couple years if one of these breaks the foil of mainstream coverage, much like the "Passer Rating" in the NFL. Why are football fans so ready to accept that complex formula, but baseball fans can't handle this stuff?
OPS (On Base Plus Slugging)
1. Hafner, 1.097
2. Ramirez, 1.058
3. Ortiz, 1.049
4. Thome, 1.014
5. Dye, 1.006
6. Giambi, .971
7. Mauer, .936
T8. Vladimir Guerrero, .934
T8. Morneau, .934
10. Paul Konerko, .932
The most crude of the four; I still can find no reason Justin Morneau is actually getting ink for this award. How many RBI would he have had hitting in front of Mauer? Not to mention that you have two points difference in OPS, except the higher one is coming from the catcher position, as opposed to first base. Morneau should be dropped off the ballot.
I don't think DH's are ineligible by any means. If they can help their team hitting as much as other players can help with hitting+defense, more power to them. Sure, some of them might not make an NL roster, but this ain't the NL.
Biggest surprise: if someone had told you Grady Sizemore was the fifth-or-so-best hitter in the AL this year, would you have believed them? What is wrong with the Indians?
Here is what my ballot would look like, and keep in mind I could care less about the team that surrounds the MVP:
1. Johan Santana
2. Derek Jeter
3. Joe Mauer
4. David Ortiz
5. Grady Sizemore
6. Travis Hafner
7. Roy Halladay
8. Miguel Tejada
9. Manny Ramirez
10. Jermaine Dye
Fuck. I have to tell you I had Jeter in the number one spot and Santana in number two, and I spent some time staring and thinking. I honestly asked myself "If I'm starting a baseball team, who would I pick first?" The answer is Santana. (Trivia: the last pitcher to win MVP? Dennis Eckersley, 1992. The last starting pitcher? Roger Clemens, 1986. The last Twin? Rod Carew, 1977.)
I only think the first four are legitimate candidates, but I was going to do a top five, and then I couldn't put Sizemore on without putting Hafner on, and it ballooned from there. (I think Hafner may have been one of the most overlooked players this season... of course his injury didn't help.)
My ballot is not purely based on the numbers. It is mostly based on the numbers. But I'm human too, and little things came down to the gut and thinking about "intangibles" and crap like that.
Back with the NL later.
posted by Carnival @ 11/17/2006
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