The Ol' Ballfield

July at Christmas: Red Sox and Matsuzaka Reach Deal Before Deadline

It's official. The Red Sox and Daisuke Matsuzaka have come to terms on a six-year, $52 million deal. Incentives can bring the total up to $60 million. The deal will put Matsuzaka in Boston until age 32.

This is an interesting one to analyze. My first instinct tells me that Boston has gotten the better deal here. If Matsuzaka is as good as advertised, they have locked up a top-tier starter through his prime, for a salary below what top-notch starters are making, especially in this market.

If Matsuzaka falters, however, the Red Sox could end up with the kind of albatross contract that is often born out of these signings. Keep in mind that Matsuzaka has thrown an incredible workload for his age, including an especially brutal high school senior season. If he starts to wear down (and big league hitters start to figure him out) within three or four years, the Red Sox could have spent a lot more money than will be returned, and would be hard-pressed to move him.

I had heard that originally Scott Boras was seeking a three-year deal for his pitcher, hoping to get more money per season and also to get Matsuzaka back on the market in the middle of his prime. This is obviously impossible now, and Matsuzaka is faced with a real "make it or break it" situation over the next three years. (Not REALLY, since he gets the money either way. I'm speaking in terms of legacy and role with the Sox, I suppose.) I don't think Matsuzaka will be another Hideki Irabu, but I don't see him turning out to be Sidd Finch either.

One more comment: I think it's unfair to just throw around the negative implications behind the accusation that "Boston is investing over $100 million in this guy!" It technically is true, but what Boston did was what was necessary to lock him up. You can't say they really overspent; the posting fee was a blind process, and though Theo Epstein did outbid Brian Cashman by about $20 million, you can't fault him for making sure he had some clearance in hurdling the Yankees' bid. The Yankees have a much larger reputation for overspending, and if Epstein had let Matsuzaka get away to New York, he'd never have heard the end of it, as he still hasn't over Johnny Damon. As far as the actual contract is concerned, Boras had every right to contest that the posting fee should not significantly negatively affect Matsuzaka's earnings, since Matsuzaka will see none of that money and it doesn't count towards the Red Sox's reported salary. Considering that the Sox would have paid more for Barry Zito, or even Jason Schmidt, this contract strikes me as reasonable. (I personally would have cut it by a few years.)

Boston is taking a gamble, but it strikes me as a very reasonable one. Until Barry Zito finds a new home, Boston has the most sought-after signed player of the offseason, and for less than $10 million a year, a price they can surely afford. With Toronto making sensible moves as well (although not as many as you'd like to see), the AL East should be another wild ride in 2007.

posted by Carnival @ 12/13/2006