The Ol' Ballfield

A Closer Look at the 2006 Arizona Fall League All-Prospects Team, Part I: Pitchers

The Phoenix Desert Dogs were darlings of a nation as they closed the book on the 2006 Arizona Fall League season, defeating the Grand Canyon Rafters 6-2 to take home the crown. Some say it was fate, some say it was luck, others claim that Phoenix was the only team that finished the regular season with a winning record. But we're not here to talk about any of that. We're here to see what players took advantage of playing nearly every day for two months in front of a slew of scouts and coaches deciding their major league fates for 2007. In this post and a couple to follow, I'll be breaking down the 2006 All-Prospects team, hopefully shedding some light on what we can expect in 2007 from these lil' rascals. I'm starting today with the hurlers.

Starters

Kyle Yates (Toronto) - RHP, Phoenix Desert Dogs
1/08/1983, 5'11", 190, Univ. of Texas
Selected by Toronto in the 13th round of the 2004 amateur draft.

2006:
A+ Dunedin (Florida State League): 2-0, 0.64, 14.0 IP, 0 HR, 8 H, 0 BB, 13 K, BAA .163
AA New Hampshire (Eastern League): 6-9, 3.75, 1 SHO, 1 SV, 127.1 IP, 10 HR, 118 H, 38 BB, 115 K, BAA .246
AFL: 2-0, 1.13, 24.0 IP, 1 HR, 19 H, 6 BB, 25 K, BAA .224

2007 Projections:
PECOTA: 5-7, 5.8, 104.3 IP, 19 HR, 39 BB, 62 K, 1.54 WHIP, 0.8 VORP, 1.3 WARP
ZiPS: 8-10, 5.29, 165.0 IP, 29 HR, 48 BB, 95 K
Marcels: N/A

At age 24 as of a couple weeks ago, Yates appears to be on the right track. A short stint at high-A led to a successful season at AA (record's not much to look at, but check out the K/BB), and he finished it off pitching for the champion Desert Dogs and being named to the all-AFL team, leading the league with his 25 strikeouts.

Firstinning.com has this to say about Yates:

Yates had an eye-catching 1.91ERA at Dunedin last year, but his component statistics suggests he won't repeat that level of success in the near future. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is good, but Yates is too hittable to have much success in the upper minor leagues.

Not very optimistic; they project Yates to be a back-end starter for the Jays in 2008. Toronto, however, is stocked with starting pitching, so if Yates' productivity doesn't increase somewhat, look for him to be headed back to the pen (after the recent conversion to starter) before he hits the AL.

Yates is a meat-and-potatoes fastball, curveball, changeup pitcher with a fastball that tops out at about 90 or 91 and his changeup is 79-81. Some people that have watched Yates think there may be some problems with his delivery (short-arming the release, shaky throwing arm), but the reports I'm reading are from a couple years ago, so I'm sure if there was anything wrong it's been caught by now, and the numbers he put up this year agree with that. Look for him to get a real chance at AAA in 2007; that could be a do-or-die situation for Yates.



Matt Albers (Houston) - RHP, Mesa Solar Sox
1/20/1983, 6'0", 205, San Jacinto Community College (Texas)
Selected by Houston in the 23rd round of the 2001 amateur draft.

2006:
AA Corpus Christi (Texas League): 10-2, 2.17, 116.0 IP, 4 HR, 96 H, 47 BB, 95 K, BAA .223
AAA Round Rock (Pacific Coast League): 2-1, 3.96, 25.0 IP, 2 HR, 24 H, 10 BB, 26 K, BAA .253
MLB Houston: 0-2, 6.00, 15.0 IP, 1 HR, 7 BB, 11 K, 1.60 WHIP, BAA .298
AFL: 0-1, 3.94, 16.0 IP, 1 HR, 14 H, 6 BB, 9 K, .241

2007 Projections:
PECOTA: 7-9, 4.84, 127.7 IP, 16 HR, 64 BB, 95 K, 1.50 WHIP, 9.0 VORP, 1.9 WARP
ZiPS: 8-10, 4.90, 156.0 IP, 19 HR, 156 H, 75 BB, 106 K
Marcels: 2-3, 4.50, 50.0 IP, 6 HR, 19 BB, 38 K, 1.40 WHIP

Okay, before I say anything I have to point out that Wikipedia has Albers's middle name incorrectly listed as "Kip." Moving on: Albers spent some time on the big league roster this season; his best appearance came July 27 against Cincinnati, when he came in in the third in relief of Taylor Bucholz. Albers proceeded to go five innings, giving up two hits, walking three, striking out four and allowing no runs. His other three appearances weren't as stable.

Albers boasts a fastball, slider, and changeup. He has excellent command of the low-90s heater and the slider has potential. Kevin Goldstein at Prospectus rates him as the seventh-best Astros prospects ("good"), and offers the following criticism:

A little short, and his pitches tend to come in straight. He began to nibble as he moved up levels, walking too many batters at Triple-A and a brief big league stint. He can overthrow his slider at times, causing it to flatten out, while also giving him trouble against lefties.

Albers's stint in the bigs puts him on the map, but something revolutionary will have to happen for him to be a force. I expect Albers to be back and forth next season, but ultimately find a place on the Astros by the end of the year. He is commonly projected as a future back-of-the-rotation starter.


Relievers

Billy Sadler (San Francisco) - RHP, Scottsdale Scorpions
9/21/1981, 6'0", 190, Louisiana State
Selected by San Francisco in the sixth round of the 2003 amateur draft.

2006:
AA Connecticut (Eastern League): 20 SV, 2.56, 45.2 IP, 1 HR, 23 H, 29 BB, 67 K, BAA .146
AAA Fresno (Pacific Coast League): 1 SV, 1.80, 10.0 IP, 1 HR, 5 H, 2 BB, 12 K, BAA .156
MLB San Francisco: 0 SV, 6.75, 4.0 IP, 2 HR, 2 BB, 6 K, 1.75 WHIP, .294 BAA
AFL: 3 SV, 1.29, 14.0 IP, 0 HR, 9 H, 4 BB, 22 K, BAA 1.84

2007 Projections:
PECOTA: 1 SV, 4.54, 56.0 IP, 5 HR, 41 BB, 52 K, 1.59 WHIP, 5.6 VORP, 1.0 WARP
ZiPS: 4.72, 80.0 IP, 10 HR, 76 H, 45 BB, 69 K
Marcels: 4.67, 27.0 IP, 4 HR, 10 BB, 21 K, 1.37 WHIP

No, that is not Billy Sadler on the CD cover, but it's the best picture I could come up with that would fit. Thank Blogspot for that one. Sadler was the first pitcher I profiled in my midseason AFL roundup, and he kept up his pace... for his remaining six innings of work. Sadler's four big league innings are obviously a small sample size, but he was decent enough to get some looks for '07, his best outing coming in the seventh inning on September 21 against Milwaukee; Sadler faced five batters, walking one, allowing one hit and striking out the rest (Tony Graffanino, Geoff Jenkins, and Drew Anderson). After striking out 22 in 14 innings in Arizona, Sadler should get some good looks for the Giants' pen, even as full as it already is.

As far as Sadler's stuff, there is some disagreement; undisputed is his 93-95 mph tailing fastball, but Prospectus says he features a "plus curve", while Baseball America has said that his "hard-biting slider" is whiffing people. Prospectus also says that he can get into trouble with his curve; he probably has both pitches, one better than the other.

Either way, he should see significant big-league time next year. But with the crowded bullpen, full rotation, and plethora of pitching prospects the Giants have, that's hardly a guarantee. It's amazing what a clusterfuck SF's roster is.



Jesse Chavez (Pittsburgh) - RHP, Grand Canyon Rafters
8/21/1983, 6'1", 160, Riverside CC (Calif.)
Selected by Texas in the 42nd round of the 2002 amateur draft.

2006:
AA Frisco (Texas League): 4 SV, 4.42, 59.0 IP, 5 HR, 54 H, 28 BB, 70 K, BAA .245
AAA Oklahoma (Pacific Coast League): 0 SV, 4.50, 2.0 IP, 0 HR, 3 H, 0 BB, 3 K, BAA .333
AAA Indianapolis (International League): 0 SV, 4.24, 17.0 IP, 0 HR, 18 H, 9 BB, 15 K, BAA .273
AFL: 4 SV, 0.64, 14.0 IP, 1 HR, 6 H, 3 BB, 11 K, BAA .122

2007 Projections:
PECOTA: N/A
ZiPS: N/A
Marcels: N/A

It's tough to find info about Chavez; as you can see above, there are no projections for him, plus Prospectus doesn't even list him as a top ten prospect in their Pirates article. There was some speculation that he was eligible for the Rule 5 draft... turned out he wasn't. Ummm, I've heard he has a good fastball... should see some time with the Pirates in 2007. 24 years old. That's all I got for you folks. More would take extensive Googling, which, to be honest, I'm not up for.


There are 18 more members of the All-Prospects team; needless to say it will take me a while to get around to all of them. But hey, that's why Walsh is here; to pick up the slack!

posted by Carnival @ 1/25/2007