The Ol' Ballfield

Zito, In An Unexpected Move, Signs a F***ing Huge Contract

The San Francisco Giants have signed Barry Zito to a seven-year $126 million contract. That is $1 million per year more (on average) than Alfonso Soriano will receive from the Cubs. I am a big Zito fan. This is insane.

Regardless of insanity, this is the first move that GM Brian Sabean has made that resembles any kind of a commitment to winning since acquiring Jason Schmidt in 2001 for Armando Rios and Ryan Vogelsong (translation: Ryan Birdsong). The irony here is that if he had just tried harder to nail down Schmidt (who signed a three-year, $47 million deal with Los Angeles), he would have a better pitcher for much less money. I believe Sabean is a candidate for worst GM in the game, along with Jim Hendry and Ned Colletti (who, not by coincidence, have all doled out dumbass contracts this offseason). I'd say the Zito deal actually is very reminiscent of the Soriano deal; way too much money for a great player, but not as great as you obviously think he is, and will end up costing your team more than he brings in.

The Giants needed pitching help, but not this badly. Zito gets thrown to the front of a rotation that will likely include Matt Cain, Matt Morris, Noah Lowry and Brad Hennessey. In 2006, only Lowry and Hennessey had ERAs below the league average; none had an ERA under 4.

Zito had both of those things but also posted a WHIP of 1.40, highest among the four pitchers that will be following him. Experts have stated that this will hurt Zito, who is leaving an assumedly better defense in Oakland. John Dewan's plus/minus system, however, ranks San Francisco's defense ahead of Oakland's in every category for 2006. The Giants posted a DER of .703 to the A's .690; Prospectus has San Francisco leading Oakland .705 to .694 in team defensive effeciency. Zito, however, was the benefactor of a .713 DEF EFF while he was on the mound. I think it is reasonable to believe that Zito will have a similar year to 2006 in 2007, hopefully posting an ERA of around 3.6 or 3.7. That is worse than what Schmidt did in 2006 (3.59). What helps Zito here is his age; he is 28 to Schmidt's 33. That is a solid number two starter for the next seven years, especially considering that Zito has never missed a start due to injury, obviously not true for Schmidt. But this is a huge amount of money to invest in guy you want to help you win down the road. To save a lot of typing, I'll just say that San Francisco's depth chart looks like this at this point. They have three great prospects in Kevin Frandsen (second base), Tim Lincecum (righty), and Angel Villalona (third base, and sixteen years old, so doesn't factor in immediately). Add to that lefty Jonathan Sanchez who may very well beat Hennessey out for a spot in the rotation next year and you've got a team that will contend in the division for a few seasons. The Giants still need plenty more pieces, however (!OUTFIELD¡), and this much money going Zito's way hurts their ability to lock it up. I think this signing will, in the long run, hurt San Francisco more than it helps.

One thing is for sure: a lot of big-name players are headed to the NL West. Every team but Colorado has been involved in big offseason moves (counting Arizon's Randy Johnson trade talks), and this division could be a tight one, and not for reasons of mediocrity like this year's NL Central.

EDIT: Add $1.8 million per year (!) to Scott Boras' salary discussed below, plus $1 million for Matsuzaka. Holy shit.

posted by Carnival @ 12/29/2006