The Ol' Ballfield

Prove Joe Morgan Something

Happy new year to everyone from The Ol' Ballfield! 2007 should be a great year for baseball, especially if 1907 is any indication! It was the year the 107-win Cubs defeated Detroit in the first of three straight World Series' Detroit would lose, in an Atlanta Braves-like run. Chicago won the series in five games, 4-0-1. That's right, you read that right, the 1907 World Series featured the first of two ties in modern postseason history. (This, of course, does not count the 2002 All Star Game.) In game one, the two teams were locked at 3-3 when the game was called on account of darkness in the 12th inning.

I doubt the Cubs will have 107 wins in 2007, or even smell third place, but with the signing of Gary Sheffield, the Tigers are in prime position to lose a couple more World Series'.

Where was I? Ah, yes, the title of this post. I posted today because of something Joe Morgan said that I thought was stupid, and I was going to try to prove him wrong. But I thought I would post first, and then try to prove him wrong, so that if I turned out to be wrong, I wouldn't be able to get out of it.

The quote in question concerns this happy character:


Dave Concepcion, whose passing over for the Hall makes baby Jesus cry year after year. Before we get to Joe's comment, there are a couple things to point out:

1) In this picture Concepcion looks like he's way to young to be holding a bat, much less playing for Cincinnati. Honestly, is it me, or are there pimples on his chin? Would we have to re-create those for the plaque? And the extra-long last name doesn't exactly help the fact that his jersey looks five sizes too large.

2) In this article, Concepcion says the following about choosing a jersey number:

"The 58 jersey was too big, and I wanted 8, 11, 17 and a bunch of others, but they were all gone," former Reds great Dave Concepcion said during breakfast at his home on Thursday. "I thought about my mom and how she was born in 1913. I am glad because that No. 13 has brought me good luck. Nineteen was gone, too."

A true hall-of-famer puts his family foremost in his mind. Or after 58, eight, 11, 17 and a bunch of others. But it was his mother that truly inspired his choice. Oh, 19 was gone too. (By the way, who wrote that article? What kind of number formatting is that? Can you manage to be consistent within one paragraph, at least?)

3) In this article, Davey has this to say:

"I know some people who had good stats are coming up, like Cal Ripken and Tony Gwynn," Concepcion said. "But I only have two more opportunities to get in or I'll have to sit out for years and wait for the veterans to vote."

Boo-fucking-hoo! It doesn't matter who has more of a chance to get into the Hall. What matters is that the right people get in. And it's gonna take a lot of convincing to convince me that you're the right person. Concepcion's WARP3 was 109.7, very impressive, but not as good as Gwynn or Ripken, or Joe Morgan or Paul Molitor or even Ozzie Smith. His FRAR, adjusted for all-time, was 712, also very impressive, in fact better than Ripken's but still not drop-dead enough to guarantee admission on fielding alone. Not to mention that Concepcion's EqA was a dismal .257, worse than a LOT of people, plenty of whom are nowhere near Cooperstown.

Besides the fact that Concepcion is a borderline case at best, it sickens me to see athletes campaigning like this. Whatever happened to the phrase "I let my playing do the talking"? I think a lot of players realized later that their playing, it turns out, doesn't really dig this whole public speaking thing, and they'd better add some whining of their own.

But, uh, I'm glad to see Concepcion is eating breakfast, the most important meal of the day, especially for hall-of-famers.

Anyway, on to what Joe Morgan, who should be and is a hall-of-famer, had to say:

"During my era, Davey was the best shortstop in baseball," Morgan said in a statement. "He was a Gold Glove winner and one of the best clutch hitters on the best team in baseball. He has been overshadowed by the new generation of sluggers at the shortstop position. If he played in the home run era, he would have hit 20-30 homers per year. He is definitely a Hall of Famer."

Now, Morgan is right about the fielding. Concepcion was an incredible fielder. Really, even by the numbers. But there is just no way this guy, who averaged seven home runs a season, would have hit 20-30 in the late nineties. The mound was lowered after the 1968 season, two years before Concepcion's debut, so it ain't like he piled up those numbers in a tight defensive era. The "home run era" saw about half a run more per game than Concepcion did during his career. Using BaseballReference's fantastic new neutralizing feature, let's see what the analysts say about Davey's chances to be a Derek Jeter-type hitter while fielding much, much, much much better.

Concepcion hit 101 home runs in his career, or 65 more than Phil Rizzuto, if you're an idiot supporting his candidacy. His career high was 16 in 1979. Adjusted so that his totals reflect seasons played at the historical average 4.63 runs per game (rather than the 4.22 that was the average during Concepcion's career), we see his totals leap to 109 on his career, 17 in 1979. You can also use this feature to choose a particular year. Let's choose 2000, which saw 5.14 runs per game, the most since 1936. You can also adjust for league and ballpark. The NL scored .3 runs fewer per game than the AL that year, so in the interest of proving Joe really wrong, we'll say AL, even though Davey was a Red. We'll also go with a neutral park. What happens?

Concepcion's total skyrockets to 117 on his career, and a high of... 18 in 1979! We're getting closer to making Morgan's prediction even relevant, if not fathomable. Let's put those same stats into the Metrodome, the most hitter-friendly park this feature offers. Concecpcion's career total becomes 122, with a career-high of.... 19 in 1979! We're getting closer!

To sum up, there's no freakin' way this guy would have hit 20-30 home runs in the late nineties/early 2000s, and he probably wouldn't even have hit 20 once. This power-hungry, roided up shortstop would have averaged eight dingers a year. Ladies and Gentlemen, we have proved Joe Morgan wrong!

Concepcion was a good enough shortstop that there should at least be some discussion about the Hall. But the only other shortstop to get in based purely on defense was Ozzie Smith, and even he was a better hitter, and a much better fielder.

I would write a longer conclusion, but I'm getting tired. Happy New Year!

posted by Carnival @ 1/01/2007