The Ol' Ballfield

Can the Tigers Survive the Jungle?

by Carnival Matleuse
September 26, 2006
All data valid through games of 9/25


Last night the Detroit Tigers defeated the Kansas City Royals 11-4, clinching their first playoff berth since the 1987 season, when they were ousted in the League Championship series by eventual world champion Minnesota, four games to one. A playoff spot should come as no surprise to the Tigers, who have held first place in the AL Central since May 16, save for a couple hours last week. Nevertheless, perhaps no team in the AL has more critics, or more people crying "pretender". The "pretender" cry should be put to rest, at least for now, as Detroit has accomplished what every team sets out the season to accomplish (with the possible exception of the Yankees). No team that survives a 162-game season and makes the playoffs deserves the "pretender" moniker; in fact, many teams that find postseason success are "pretenders", knocking off a team in a five-game series that would have whooped them in nine or 19. No, Detroit belongs in the playoffs. The new question is, do they have what it takes at this point?

One might argue that such an attempt at analysis is futile, given the unpredictability of the playoffs. I couldn't agree more, but we might as well take a critical look at the AL Central leaders (as of this writing) to examine whether this criticism is justified. The Tigers have a higher payroll than both the Twins and Athletics, but both of those teams are notorious for their low-budget regular season success. Detroit has come out of nowhere. The Tigers have not had a winning season since 1993; their last two seasons produced .438 and .444 winning percentages, and every baseball fan in Michigan will wince at the mere mention of 2003: 43-119, by far the worst season in the 105-year history of the franchise.

2006, however, may go down in history for the opposite reason.

----

Detroit burst out of the gate in 2006, starting the season 5-0. Granted, two of those wins were against Kansas City, but for a week anyway, Detroiters had smiles on their faces. A mere 10 days later, they were at 7-7, and everyone went back to thinking about the NHL and NBA playoffs. Those 10 days included a three-game sweep by Chicago and a four-game split with Cleveland. The division seemed to be panning out the way everyone predicted. The Tigers stayed the course, however, and entered a late-April series with Minnesota 1.5 games out of first at 13-9. Detroit dominated the Twins, sweeping the series and outscoring Minnesota 35-1. The AP recap of the middle game of the set, an 18-1 thrashing, starts: "The Detroit Tigers now have one thing in common with their 1993 counterparts -- a 17-run victory." Another interesting tidbit for Tiger fans was that none of those wins came from staff ace Jeremy Bonderman. Nate Robertson won game one, extending a scoreless inning streak to 14 and beginning a first-half performance far above his normal level. Justin Verlander won game two (although with that score Jose Lima could have gone nine), and people started to notice the kid with the high-90s heat. Game three was won by veteran Kenny Rogers, who was fast proving himself to be yet another age-defying pitcher in today's MLB. The Tigers went on to win three more in a row, and on May 3 stood at 19-9, just a half game behind the White Sox.

People around baseball began to notice the Tigers at this point; nearly everyone had slated them to finish fourth behind the defending World Series champions and two teams stacked with talented youth in the Twins and Indians. On May 12, the Tigers went into Jacobs Field and took three games out from under the Indians, came home and took three from the Twins, again with wins from Robertson, Verlander, and Rogers. The first win over the Twins gave Detroit sole possession of first place, and when the series was over they sat atop the Central, where they would stay, at 27-13. Detroit was now the official "story" of the season.

Another Detroit pitcher began to turn heads. Todd Jones, one of the many talented players high-tailing out of Florida in the 05-06 off season, had cemented himself as closer for Central leaders. Jones converted 16 of 17 save opportunities in April and May, and the role was his. (Fun fact: Detroit went 21 straight games in May and June without having a save converted against them.) Jones was credited with much of the Tigers' success, with some writers, however idiotically, throwing his name into the mix for AL Cy Young. His setup-man, Joel Zumaya, also attracted attention throughout the season as perhaps the hardest-throwing pitcher in the league.

The Tigers suffered very little personnel drama during the season. Mike Maroth was sidelined from June until mid-September, and has yet to work his way back into the rotation. Placido Polanco went on the DL on August 16th with a shoulder injury, and also has just recently made his way back to the field. The Tigers acquired Sean Casey at the deadline, and claimed Matt Stairs off waivers in September. The main "Outside the Lines" talking point this season has been Dimitri Young, who after injury and production problems was released unconditionally by the team on September 6. The team cited slowing production and clubhouse demeanor as the main reasons, but many of Young's teammates came to his defense as a vital part of their clubhouse culture and lives. Zumaya referred to Young as a big brother, and Casey called him one of this all-time favorite teammates. Though management denies it, it is speculated that Young's substance-abuse problems contributed to the decision.

Detroit hit a bump in the road in their final series of May, dropping three straight to the Yankees. The four-game losing streak would be their last until August, though, and the Tigers went from 2.5 games up on Chicago at the beginning of June to 7.5 up at the end of July. A 13-16 August, however, and the Tigers were at the height of talk about who deserved to be winning and who didn't. Heading into Tuesday's game, Detroit has an 11-11 record in September, and stand but one game ahead of Minnesota for the Central lead.

Though it appears Detroit is in full-scale regression, they are still in first place, after all. .500 baseball is not a cancer for a team that was 59-29 at the break, but it's certainly not a good sign either. I have chosen a series of questions to aide my analysis of just how good the Tigers are:

1. Has Detroit been lucky this season?

2. How do the Tigers stack up in terms of:
a. Rotation
b. Lineup
c. Bullpen (and management thereof)
d. Defense
e. Bench

3. How has Detroit fared against the other three playoff teams?

4. What factors does Comerica Park provide?

The first three are obviously the most important, but one must not discount the effect a ballpark can have; one might argue it's the reason the Padres are a playoff team.


1. Has Detroit been lucky this season?

What do I mean by "lucky"? Put simply, a baseball team's two jobs are scoring runs and preventing the other team from scoring runs. These two jobs, during a game, can and often do have very little to do with each other. Obviously a solid pitching performance is more valuable in a tight game than in a blowout, but optimistically speaking, the defense's performance doesn't affect the offense, and vice versa.

Much of baseball is situational, and that's where luck comes into play. If Peyton Manning barely overthrows Marvin Harrison, they both look bad. If Derek Jeter strikes out, it in no way lessens Jason Giambi's chances of getting a hit. Each member of a baseball offense or defense has little to no control (the obvious exception being throws on defense) over each other member of the team's success.

An offense's ability to consistently score runs, however, is not lucky, nor is a defense's ability to consistently prevent them. That is based on the talent and effort of the players on the team. It doesn't always balance out perfectly, though.

Back to the beginning: A baseball team's two jobs are scoring runs and preventing the other team from scoring runs. A lot of flukes can happen that will lose you some games, but a team that does those two things well should be a winning team over time. In practice, a team that is winning games by a large margin and losing games by a small margin can be said to be unlucky; if the scoring evened out, they might win more games. Conversely, a team losing by a lot and winning by a little is getting lucky. Much of this can have to do with "clutch hitting"; whether or not clutch hitting exists is a matter for the courts. What we DO know, however, is that while some players may be predisposed to hit better in big situations, they are very rarely ones that do it in such a way that it makes a difference over a 162-game season, or even a 20-game postseason. Clutch hitting, for our purposes, is negligible.

The easiest way to determine whether a team has been lucky is the Pythagorean winning percentage. Developed by Bill James, Pythagorean winning percentage balances runs scored versus runs allowed and calculates what a team's winning percentage is expected to be given those factors. The formula:

(Runs Scored)^1.83
-----------------------------------------------------------
(Runs Scored)^1.83 + (Runs Allowed)^1.83

If the Tigers have been lucky, this should find that they are estimated to win fewer games than the 94 they have this season.

Detroit 2006 Runs Scored: 787 (6th in AL)
Detroit 2006 Runs Allowed: 629 (1st in AL)

Pythagorean W-L: 94-62
Actual W-L: 94-62

This method shows that the Detroit team that shows up in the standings is the Detroit team that shows up on the field. There has been little to no deviation between the Tigers' production and the Tigers' success. Not only do the Tigers belong at the top of the AL Central, they should have a higher margin, as the Twins have won three more games than their Pythagorean experiment predicts.

Whether Detroit has the tools to be a contender is now a non-issue. Let's go further to examine whether Detroit has the tools to win it all.

2. Analysis of The Detroit Tigers

I have compiled the following projections for the Tigers' playoff run, based on a combination of what has happened and what, according to me, should happen:

• Projected Rotation

1. Jeremy Bonderman
2. Kenny Rogers
3. Justin Verlander
4. Nate Robertson

This is, of course, pure speculation on my part. Bonderman is the unquestioned ace of the staff, and though sources have him pitching the season finale October 1 against Kansas City, that seems to me to be a terrible idea. Why waste Bonderman against the Royals and have to go with a secondary option in game one? That will probably change. Rogers will likely get the number two spot due to his experience and due to the fact that Verlander will have less rest at that point. Robertson should get the final spot over Wilfredo Ledezma. They are both in the rotation currently, but Robertson is a starter in and out, and is also more experienced. Plus the glasses are intimidating.

• Projected Lineup

• CF Curtis Granderson
• 2B Placido Polanco
• C Ivan Rodriguez
• RF Magglio Ordoñez
• SS Carlos Guillen
• DH Marcus Thames
• LF Craig Monroe
• 1B Chris Shelton
• 3B Brandon Inge

This is open to a lot more interpretation. Granderson is pretty set at the top. Magglio and Guillen are pretty set in 4 and 5. Some of the other predictions are more based on what I think SHOULD happen. For example, I think Leyland should start Chris Shelton over Sean Casey. Shelton is younger, has better numbers, and is a better fielder. Shelton also has the distinct advantage of NOT being the only player I've ever seen get thrown out at first from left field. Whether or not Leyland agrees with me, I don't know. Casey has had the edge recently in terms of starts. Polanco, recently back from injury, is another question mark. He hasn't been starting yet, but I can't see any reason why he shouldn't be in the lineup at playoff time. Another question is at DH: I think Marcus Thames should start, but it could very well go to Matt Stairs, a veteran. Again, Thames has better numbers, is younger, and has never had his swing described as a "beer-league softball swing". Which I take offense to, being a beer-league softball player. Regardless, I'm going to guess that Leyland will not do what I would do in either of these cases.

This leaves, in no particular order:

• Bullpen

• Todd Jones (CL)
• Fernando Rodney
• Mike Maroth
• Wilfredo Ledezma
• Joel Zumaya
• Jamie Walker
• Jason Grilli
• Zach Miner
• Andrew Miller

• Bench

• Matt Stairs (OF)
• Sean Casey (1B)
• Neifi Perez (IF)
• Vance Wilson (C)
• Bert Clevlen (OF)
• Ramon Santiago (IF)
• Omar Infante (IF)
• Alexis Gomez (OF)
• Mike Rabelo (C)

a. The Starting Rotation

....is the best in the American League. If you ask me. It is the weakest part of the Yankees, with only Wang doing anything consistent; Minnesota shifts the spotlight to the best pitcher in the league, Johan Santana, while shifting the spotlight away from possibly the worst pitcher in the league, Carlos Silva. The Twins have lost Liriano to injury, and Radke is attempting a comeback under watchful eyes. Oakland has Barry Zito, Dan Haren, Rich Harden, and Joe Blanton. Zito, of course, is great, but Harden has been hurt and is only just now returning to form, and Haren and Blanton are very unpredictable, not to mention inexperienced. Oakland is a close second, but going into the playoffs, I'll take the foursome mentioned above. Here are the numbers:

Bonderman (13-8, 4.11, .259 BAA)
Rogers (17-6, 3.63, .248)
Verlander (17-9, 3.63, .266)
Robertson (13-12, 3.66, .254)

As far as innings pitched, they are all within 20 of each other (Rogers actually putting in 12 more than Verlander). But at first glance, Detroit's best pitcher has been Rogers, with Verlander not too far behind. Detroit is one of two teams in the AL with two 17-game winners, the other being the Yankees, for whom Randy Johnson has won 17 games with an ERA of 5.00 even. Talk about the benefit of a lineup. But in more accurate indicators of production, the surprising thing is the grouping of Detroit's pitchers among the league's best. Verlander and Rogers are tied for seventh in the AL in ERA, with Robertson coming in at ninth. Verlander is seventh among AL pitchers in VORP (47.2), with Rogers ninth (45.3) and Robertson 10th (45.1). No one dominates the league, but no other team has a rotation that is ALL so good. Taking the VORP literally, those three have been responsible for nearly 14 of Detroit's wins BY THEMSELVES. That may not seem like a lot, but take any of those wins away and the playoff picture is dramatically different.

This leads us, of course, to another surprising development: where has Bonderman been? His ERA is miles above the other three, although still below the league average (4.56). His walk rate is actually better than the other three (save Rogers, who is ahead by .02), and he strikes out nearly three batters per game more than Verlander, the next closest. A glance at Bonderman's career numbers puts this season at one of his best, his ERA more than a half run better than his career mark. He has also allowed fewer home runs this season than any past and struck out far more batters. Poor run support wouldn't change the numbers we're looking at, so what is responsible?

According to Baseball Prospectus' Quality of Batters Faced table, Bonderman has the worst luck in this department of the four, facing batters with an average OPS of .774. The next three aren't that far behind, however, Robertson at .771, Verlander at .769, and Rogers at .767.

Another variable is the defense behind them. I'm going to give away a little something here: Detroit's defense this year has been astoundingly incredible. But I'll talk more about that in that section. Which pitcher has benefited the most?

Prospectus uses Defensive Efficiency, the rate at which balls put into play are converted to outs by a team's defense. Since Veros McCracken proved that a pitcher has no control over where a batted ball goes (except for over the fence), this can be crucial to a pitcher's success. Here are the DEF EFFs for the rotation:

Rogers: .741
Robertson: .721
Verlander: .703
Bonderman: .677

For whatever reason, the Tigers defense has thrown up on themselves behind Bonderman. Bonderman does not allow more line drives than his compatriots, however; only Rogers has a lower line drive percentage. Could the defense be the reason for his statistical inferiority? Maybe a little bit, but I have a different idea.

My conclusion is that Verlander, Rogers, and Robertson are responsible, each having career years while Bonderman is remaining consistent. Verlander is a rookie and could be a star, Robertson has never been near the league average in ERA, even Rogers is posting his sixth-best ERA in his 18-year career. Bonderman, in my mind, is still the staff ace, and deserves the ball in game one. In fact, any player left from the awful 2003 Tigers deserves to play in game one a little bit.

Here is the rotation's record against playoff teams:

Bonderman: 0-4, 5.26
Rogers: 5-0, 3.46 (No starts against NY)
Verlander: 4-0, 2.49
Robertson: 4-5, 4.26

It should be mentioned that in Verlander's only start against the Yankees he gave up six runs in five innings and did not factor in the decision. He does, however have a 0.82 ERA against Minnesota.

For whatever reason, Bonderman STILL stands out as the worst of the bunch. I'm going to go out on a limb and call it a fluke. I just can't see anyone else starting game one.

Detroit's team ERA is a ridiculous 3.75, the only AL ERA below 4. Their pitching is solid enough to win them a world championship, but perhaps not as solid as the numbers make it look. For one thing, only Kenny Rogers has playoff experience, where he is 0-3 with an 8.85 ERA. I don't see this fazing Bonderman, and Verlander has potential to make a big mark his rookie year. Robertson may be a question mark; his numbers are so much better than the rest of his career that he may be in for a rude awakening in the playoffs. At any rate, I don't think this is a huge dock to the Tigers, but it counts.

As I mentioned, I rate the Tigers' pitching staff the best of the four AL playoff teams. That said, I would rather have Chien-Ming Wang, Johan Santana, or Barry Zito pitching for my team this playoffs than anyone on Detroit. We shall see whether the rotation can do what it has done all year: be the best as a whole to give Detroit a chance.

b. The Lineup

For your convenience, here again is what I predict/recommend:

CF Curtis Granderson
2B Placido Polanco
C Ivan Rodriguez
RF Magglio Ordoñez
SS Carlos Guillen
DH Marcus Thames
LF Craig Monroe
1B Chris Shelton
3B Brandon Inge

I don't know about you, but to me that looks like a damn decent lineup. Again, inevitable Manager of the Year Jim Leyland will probably alter it to make it worse (this man actually led off Neifi Perez for more than one game).

Numbers!

Runs/Game:

DET: 5.04
NYY: 5.71
MIN: 5.01
OAK: 4.71

Second best among playoff teams, edging out the Morneau-Mauer led lineup in Minneapolis, although not much higher than the league average of 4.97. Some other numbers:

OBP: .328 (last among playoff teams)
SLG: .450 (2nd among playoff teams)
HR: 195 (2nd among playoff teams, 3rd in AL)
BB: 410 (last among playoff teams, 2nd-last in AL)
GDP: 114 (lowest among playoff teams, 2nd-lowest in AL)
SB %: 58.8 (dead last in the majors)
LD %: .189 (3rd-last in AL)

It's tough to ascertain much from this. A paltry OBP is helped by a healthy SLG. The incredibly low GDP is offset by an incredibly low walk total. The low line drive percentage doesn't explain the good power. The running game, simply put, is losing the Tigers runs. It all adds up, pretty honestly, to explain the Tigers' almost average run output.

Detroit has the third-most homers in the AL, despite having no 30 HR guys. They do, however, have four 20 HR guys, with Guillen at 19. Detroit has a .450 SLG, and only Guillen is above .500 among regulars. The only regular below .450 is Pudge.

Look, the Tigers' offense is unremarkable. They make up for below average hitting and walking with above-average power, albeit not amazing power, certainly no match for the Yankees. Their OPS, accordingly, falls at 7th in the AL, right in the middle of the pack. It is, however, better than both the Twins' and Athletics'. The story of this year's AL field is not offense; the top slugging team, Chicago, is safely out of the mix, as is #2 Toronto. The Yankees are obviously the exception. In fact, the Tigers have a better SLG than every team in both leagues still eligible for the playoffs besides the Yankees. One out of eight ain't bad, but Detroit doesn't get on base enough to have a clear advantage. If Detroit is going to go far this postseason, it's not going to be because of the bats.

Some individual highlights:

Carlos Guillen has a stellar .398 OBP. He is the only Tiger with an OBP over .350.

Marcus Thames is slugging .555. His potential competition for the DH spot, Matt Stairs, is slugging .346. Don't ask about his OBP, you don't want to know...

Craig Monroe leads the team with 27 homers. He doesn't like to walk, though, and it shows in his .305 OBP. Jason Giambi he ain't.

The Tigers have eight players in the double digits in home runs. They are the only playoff team with that many.


It is becoming clear that the Tigers' strength is ability up and down the lineup, with no real highlights or fireworks.

c. Bullpen (and management thereof)

Todd Jones ranks tied for fifth in the majors with 36 saves, and has pitched the fewest innings of any of the seven pitchers with 36 saves or more. He went from June 10 to September 2 without blowing a save, and since June has allowed an earned run in only one game each month. This is the good news. The bad news is that he has a 4.10 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP (high for a closer), and has 36 fewer strikeouts than last season when he saved 40 games with a 2.10 ERA for the Marlins. Jones has also stated publicly that he would refuse to take the field with a gay teammate, which, though it has no effect on his performance, is worth mentioning.

The numbers above, however, are worth examining. Look at Jones' first half/second half splits:

ERA:
1st: 5.82
2nd: 1.78

WHIP:
1st: 1.44
2nd: 0.95

BAA:
1st: .302
2nd: .223

He also has more strikeouts in fewer innings. A rough first half is the likely cause of a lot of those shaky numbers.

Jones, however, didn't do particularly well in big situations; his Inherited Runs Prevented stands at -1.8 (with zero being average). Granted, the closer usually comes in in the ninth the start the inning, but many playoff situations involve emergency roles for the closer. In this regard Jones stands at 144th in the majors in Adjusted Runs Prevented (which combines inherited and bequeathed runners), sandwiched between Scott Sauerbeck and Mike Remlinger. He is nowhere near the top of his team in this category.

But enough dwelling on the closer; all in all Detroit's bullpen has been quite good. There is a lot of evidence to this end... for instance Detroit has the highest LOB% in the AL at 75%. I would say that since the middle of a big inning is the most likely time to see a reliever, that this indicates good bullpen support in terms of inherited runners. In FACT, I have much better evidence to that effect; Prospectus' bullpen support table ranks Rogers at 13th, Verlander at 16th, Robertson at 21st and Bonderman in 27th, the highest collective ranking for four pitchers on the same team in the majors. This is good for the bullpen, but also points in another direction: Jim Leyland has been using his relievers quite well. Getting 36 saves out of a 4.10 ERA guy is big, but consider this: The Tigers have 16 shutouts this season -- best in the bigs by four. Complete games? Third lowest in the AL, only three. Take away the only complete game shutout (Verlander), and the Tigers would still stand atop the majors in team shutouts. Put that together with the fact the Detroit has only one pitcher in the top 40 of Pitcher Abuse Points (Verlander), and that's a case for Leyland for the aforementioned MOTY. Now why can't he learn to use his lineup effectively?

Detroit also, simply put, has a lot of good pitchers in the pen. Ledezma, before being put in the starter's role (where he has struggled), had a 2.07 ERA. Fernando Rodney lost the closer role to Jones in May, but he has a 3.44 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and, here's the kicker, .194 BAA. Mike Maroth lost his spot in the rotation to injury, but is a veteran lefty with solid, if not spectacular career numbers. Jamie Walker is a better lefty that is effective against hitters on both sides; he boasts a 2.20 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.

There is one name I have left out, and of course by now you've noticed that it's Joel Zumaya. How this guy is not closing is honestly beyond me. In 19 more innings than Jones he has 66 more strikeouts, has allowed but two more home runs, has a team-low ERA of 1.95, and hitters are batting .181 against him. .181! He ranks fifth in the majors with 30 Adjusted Runs Prevented, nearly six more than Joe Nathan and Mariano Rivera. But the most fun number of all is this: 98.56. That is the speed, in MPH, of Zumaya's average fastball. Average means that some are slower, and some are faster. It is the highest average fastball of any pitcher in the last two years by over two miles per hour. Wagner clocks in at 96.47. Could it be that Leyland is actually doing the right thing with Zumaya, using him as a relief ace in high-leverage situations, saving the less-talented Jones for the ninth? I'm not prepared to give him that much credit. But there is no reliever in the AL playoffs, save for Rivera and possibly Nathan, that I'd want to face less.

When Leyland takes the ball from his starter, I look to the ninth if I'm the opposing team; that may be where the weakest link lies. The Tigers' bullpen is very, very solid.

d. Defense

Detroit's defense is its claim to.... well, not fame. But success. I mentioned earlier that Detroit boasts a 3.75 team ERA, by far the best in the AL. Detroit's Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which measures success on all the factors the game the pitcher has complete control over, is 4.33, by far not the best in the AL. The Twins lead with 4.06. This suggests that either Detroit's pitchers have been very lucky, or that Detroit's defense has been really, really good. Detroit has the fifth-most errors in the majors at an even 100. So luck accounts for this ERA? Not likely.

It is very hard to get charged for an error on a ball ya can't get to. A lot of slower-fielding teams have an advantage with this particular scoring system. Detroit’s Defense Efficiency Ratio (similar to DEF EFF) is .719, highest in the AL. (Other sources list it at .708, with different criteria. It's still highest in the AL.) The Hardball Times lists teams "Plus/Minus" defense numbers, comparing the number of plays a team has made compared to the league average. Detroit has 62; next highest in the AL is 40 (Toronto), third highest is six (New York). THT goes a step further and splits it up into types of batted balls. Detroit converted an astounding 75 ground balls above average; next highest is Toronto's 26. The outfield, however converted thirteen fly balls BELOW average. Inge, Guillen, and Polanco have been integral to Detroit's success. Detroit is the best fielding team in the American League by a large margin, the largest of any of it's strong points.

e. Bench

A good pinch-hit can be the difference in a playoff game. Hell, Aaron Boone was brought into Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS as a pinch-runner. For the Tigers all this bodes... bad. If the bench described above is the Tigers' actual bench, the highest OBP will belong to Omar Infante at .333. In fact, only he, Alexis Gomez and Bert Clevlen would have OBPs over .300. What we're looking at here is a bunch of defensive replacements for a great defensive team. Neifi Perez is Neifi Perez, and his BA is eight points higher than potential DH Matt Stairs, whose BA is only 25 points higher than Nate Robertson's. Small sample size, but come on. The Tigers, when in need, would be best served to stick to Sean Casey when they need a big hit off the bench, and even he is not putting up numbers that indicate he could deliver. Detroit may be consistent, but it's not deep.


The analysis of all of this has led me to the following conclusions:

1. Detroit's pitching is rock-solid, but not dominant enough to be a guarantee, especially against the Yankees' lineup.

2. Detroit's hitting is average, but is made up for by its pitching.

3. Detroit's defense is the best there is, but defense does not win championships. Hell, defense rarely wins games.

4. Jim Leyland is ok.


This is an underwhelming evaluation. I believe Detroit to be a better team then I am portraying it. I don't see them competing well enough with the Yankees or Twins to put my mind at ease that they could beat either of them. But let's see what the season has to tell us on this front.

3. How has Detroit fared against the other three playoff teams?

In case you haven't noticed, I've been referring to New York, Minnesota and Oakland as the other three playoff teams. New York and Minnesota have clinched, and Oakland's magic number is one, so I don't see this as irresponsible. How has Detroit played these teams in actual games during the season?

a. Minnesota

Divisional opponents play each other 19 times during a season, so we have the most data surrounding Minnesota. Here is the blow-by-blow:

4/28 - W, 9-0
4/29 - W, 18-1
4/30 - W, 6-0
@5/5 - W, 9-6
@5/6 - L, 6-7
@5/7 - L, 2-4
5/16 - W, 7-4
5/17 - W, 2-0
5/18 - W, 5-3
@7/28 - W, 3-2
@7/29 - W, 8-6
@7/30 - L, 4-6
8/7 - W, 9-3
8/8 - L, 2-4
8/9 - L, 3-4
@9/7 - W, 7-2
@9/8 - L, 5-9
@9/9 - L, 1-2
@9/10 - L, 1-12

Overall: 11-8
Home: 7-2
Away: 4-6

A slight edge for the Tigers, although they managed to avoid Minnesota's unbelievable run in June.

Pyth. W-L = 13-6

According to runs scored/allowed, the Tigers played well enough to win two more games than they actually did. This is of course aided by the 18-1 massacre in May.

Pitching records:

Bonderman: 0-2, 5.33, .314 (!)
Rogers: 3-0, 2.41, .217
Verlander: 3-0, 0.82, .250
Robertson: 3-2, 3.38, .274

Of the five of the last six that Detroit lost, Robertson took two of the losses, Bonderman one.

How have the pitchers handled Minnesota's big boys?

Morneau:

vs. Bonderman: 2-10, 2 BB, 5 K
vs. Rogers: 1-5, 1 BB, 4 K
vs. Verlander: 1-6, 3 BB
vs. Robertson: 2-12, 1 HR

Advantage Detroit. And Mauer:

vs. Bonderman: 4-9, 1 2B, 3 BB
vs. Rogers: 0-2, 1 BB
vs. Verlander: 4-10, 2 K
vs. Robertson: 3-10, 1 2B, 1 K

Nothing spectacular, although he seems to have Bonderman's number.

How do Detroit's big bats stack up against the AL soon-to-be-Cy?

Magglio: 5-14, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Guillen: 3-9, 1 2B, 3 BB, 4 K
Monroe: 1-14, 1 2B, 1 BB, 4 K

Santana has 47 strikeouts against Detroit. Marcus Thames is 0-11 against him.

Again, nothing spectacular. I don't expect Detroit's pitching to be able to make up for the lack of hitting in a short series. A 7-gamer, however, could be interesting. A solid performance from the top four could drown out da noiz around Santana, especially if Ordoñez and someone else get hot. I'd call it just about even in that case. Detroit's rotation is as deep as you'll find, with a solid bullpen. Minnesota's lineup, however, is superior to Detroit's. I'm afraid to make a prediction here, it could come down to something as simple as home field, which is yet to be decided.

b. New York

The regular season meetings with the Yanks didn't treat Detroit too well:

5/29: L, 0-4
5/30: L, 6-11
5/31: L, 1-6
6/1: W, 7-6
@8/29: Ppd.
@8/30: L, 0-2; W, 5-3
@8/31: L, 4-6

Overall: 2-5
Home: 1-3
Away: 1-2

It is easy to see that Detroit won both their games by small margins, so I won't bother with the Pythagorean calcuations. Suffice to say it was ugly. For Detroit to have a chance in this series they need to a) wallop the Yankees' pitching, and b) stop the lineup from producing. This series has the same advantages and disadvantages as the Twins series would, but on a much larger scale. Here is how the rotation has fared:

Bonderman: 0-2, 5.68, .357
Rogers: Has not faced NY this year
Verlander: 0-0, 10.80, .333
Robertson: 0-2, .460, .313

Verlander pitched one game and lasted five innings giving up six runs. Not a SINGLE Detroit starter has a win against the Yankees. Fernando Rodney picked up the win in June (Verlander's start), pitching a scoreless 8th and 9th; Detroit rallied in the bottom of the ninth off replacement closer Kyle Farnsworth for the win. In game 2 of the August doubleheader, Jason Grilli picked up the win by being in the right place at the right time. Grilli pitched the last out of the 8th, and in the top of the ninth Detroit rallied again, this time off of Scott Proctor, to win, with Jones picking up the save (0 Ks). Only two wins, and they both came in ninth inning rallies? Neither of which featured Mariano River? Not to mention that NONE of the games between these two teams featured Gary Sheffield or Hideki Matsui.

But enough of that good news. How has Detroit fared against Yankee pitching?

Ordoñez: 8-24, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 K
Guillen: 7-29, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Monroe: 3-27, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 10 K
Rodriguez: 7-28, 1 3B, 1 HR, 5 K
Thames: 5-17, 1 HR, 4 BB, 4 K

Ordonez has had the most success, and it's heartening to see that everyone's gone deep. (Watch out, RJ.) But those are not the numbers you want from the best hitters on your team.

Normally, a long series favors Detroit because of the depth of their rotation and consistency of their lineup. But the Yankees' lineup is astrological compared to the Tigers, and has already proved it can slap their starters around with a weaker edition. In a five-game series, I would pick the Yankees in four. In a seven-game, Yankees in six. If I'm Detroit, I am busting my butt to win the division and put the Yanks off for at least another week.

c. Oakland

Out of the gauntlet, into a breath of fresh air. If Pythagorean W-L were the name of the game, Oakland would be in THIRD PLACE in the AL West. How has the luckiest playoff team played the Tigers this year?

@4/18: L, 3-4
@4/19: W, 11-4
@4/20: W, 4-3
@7/3: L, 3-5
@7/4: L, 1-2
@7/5: W, 10-4
7/21: W, 7-4
7/22: L, 5-9
7/23: W, 8-4

Overall: 5-4
Home: 2-1
Away: 3-3

The Tigers and A's haven't played since late July, so this would be the freshest match-up for Detroit. Not that that means anything. They've played pretty evenly.

Pyth. W-L: 6-3 (barely)

So nothing much different than what we saw. Oakland has the only rotation that matches up with Detroit's, and it's no secret that pitching would be the key in this series.

Bonderman: 0-0, 3.86, .200
Rogers: 2-0, 4.85, .220
Verlander: 1-1, 2.25, .203
Robertson: 1-1, 5.79, .226

Them A's ain't hittin' but .230 on the lot of 'em. Bonderman only had one start; he went seven giving up three runs and striking out only one. The A's don't strike out much though. Not that that matters much with Detroit's infield.

Could Detroit muster enough offense to make it a lock? I won't get into the numbers because they're stark, but Zito has owned the Tigers, while Dan Haren and Esteban Loaiza have gotten their asses handed to them on a platter. Joe Blanton has had some luck (emphasis on luck), scratching a 2-1 record out of an 8.27 ERA and a .384 BAA.

The question mark is Rich Harden, whom the Tigers have not faced all year. If the hoser pitches like he did Tuesday night, it could easily be a win for the A's... if they can score on the Tigers. Maybe I'm being too harsh, but both these lineups are anemic compared to New York's.

Detroit's best chance this postseason is against the A's. The A's have a lot of talent and always look to be for real... but they've won eight games more than they should have this year. It will be close, but the advantage falls, again, to Detroit's depth in the rotation, especially considering their numbers against Oakland this season. In a fiver I would take Detroit in 4, and Detroit in 5 in a seven-gamer. Again, the Tigers should be dying to clinch the division right now and guarantee a first-round match-up with Oakland.


Detroit against the field? This is kind of the ultimate question, isn't it? I'm going to have to side with the field. Detroit could get out of the LDS, as any team that falls ass-backwards into the playoffs can (not that the Tigers have done that). But they don't match up well enough against EITHER New York or Minnesota to go the distance.

4. What about the ballpark?

It's getting late. So, nothing. In terms of favoring runs, Comerica comes in at 24th in the bigs; a pitcher's ballpark for a pitcher's ballclub. Detroit's 49-32 road record, however, is the best in the majors. They are (therefore) 46-30 at home, good but not as good the Yankees, Twins, A's, or a few other teams. Of Monroe's 27 dingers, 11 have come at Comerica. Inge has 15 of his 26 on the road. Ordonez: 8 of 24 at home.

If Comerica is so unforgiving to hitters, does at least give a leg-up to the staff? Bonderman is over a run better on the road. Rogers is mediocre on the road and lights out at home. Verlander is a little better at Comerica and Robertson has a slight edge in other parks.

I don't see enough evidence here for me to let it affect the evaluation of the team. The Tigers should be pretty consistent no matter where they play.

And that has been the story of the season. They have played exactly as well as they needed to get where they are. But they also played Kansas City 16 times (three more upcoming), as well as poor Cleveland, while avoiding Minnesota's rampage through the National League. In the playoffs, everyone has as good a chance as anyone, but, based on baseball that's been played, the Tigers do not look like a pennant-winning team. They are a great story, and everyone that was around for 2003 deserves some champagne. I'm just saying they'd better get their fill now. And play drunk.

posted by Carnival @ 9/27/2006 2 comments