Top Ten List of the Day
The top ten
active leaders in on-base percentage.1.
Barry Bonds (41), .4429
2.
Todd Helton (32), .4300
3.
Frank Thomas (38), .4242
4.
Albert Pujols (26), .4186
5.
Lance Berkman (30), .4161
6.
Jason Giambi (35), .4134
7.
Bobby Abreu (32), .4124
8.
Manny Ramirez (34), .4110
9.
Jim Thome (35), .4089
10.
Brian Giles (35), .4083
One name conspicuously absent?
Ichiro Suzuki, who it turns out almost never walks.
And if there's one disclaimer about rate stats, it's that shorter careers have the advantage. Can I then get one big "holy shit" for
Bonds and
Thomas, still getting on base at an outstanding rate. It's too bad
Dusty Baker would never have those two "clogging up" his basepaths! Yes-sir-ee.
Swift Boat Veterans for Bloodsockgate
Are you a Massachusetts resident? Are you sick of high taxes, illegal immigrants, the BIG DIG, and queers marrying queers at a rate that would put any Vegas chapel to shame? Are you sick of
John Kerry flip-flopping his shit all over your beautiful state constitution? Are you sick of the hours of C-SPAN footage of
Ted Kennedy falling asleep on the senate floor? Does Cape Cod look just a little too phallic for your liking? Would you push your own Grandmother down the stairs just to get
JFK back in office? Do you think the Pawtucket Red Sox are the only redeeming feature of Rhode Island? Do you get pissed off at the constant stream of hippies commuting to and from Maine? Do you wake up every morning and think to yourself "Man, FUCK Connecticut." Do you read
Bill Simmons more regularly than... do you only read
Bill Simmons? Most importantly, registered voter in Massachusetts, DO YOU LOVE THE RED SAWX AND HATE THE FUCKING YANKEES?
Registered voter in Massachusetts, when you pick up the paper on November 5, 2008, to read about the previous night's senatorial race results, what do you want to see? What image would give you the most hope? Would it look something, anything, like this?
That's right,
Curt Schilling. Whispers of him taking on
Kerry in '08 are...
whispering. And why not? If there's one non-baseball thing
Schilling is famous for, it's siring two children that developed melanoma, a skin cancer that makes sunlight rather dangerous, and then taking a contract in Phoenix, the sunniest city in the United States*. But if there are TWO things, he's famous for his stumping, support, and everything short of physical romantic passion for
George W. Bush.
At least we hope he stopped short of physical romantic passion. Because we know that if there's one thing you hate, registered Massachusetts voter, it's
queers.
Let's use Wikipedia's
Curt Schilling article to help us illustrate, in a
Stephen Colbert-ish manner, just why
Schilling would be right for
Massachusetts.
-We need someone with a
cool head.
During a game as a Diamondback in 2001, he destroyed a camera with a bat because he disagreed with their intended purpose.
-We need someone that isn't afraid to
tell it like it is.
When Red Sox relief pitcher Scott Williamson began to experience arm pain mid-way through the 2004 season, Schilling reportedly told Williamson to stop "acting." Williamson then lost the remainder of the season to reconstructive arm surgery.
-We need someone that will
support the administration.
While with the Phillies, Schilling was a vocal critic of team management, stopping just short of calling the front office incompetent...Schilling campaigned for President George W. Bush in 2004, while the ownership of the Red Sox campaigned for the challenger, Senator John F. Kerry.
-We need someone that will
stand behind his colleagues.
He was called to Capitol Hill to testify about steroid use in March of 2005, not as a suspected user but rather as a vocal opponent. However, many were disappointed as he equivocated on his position. Later, he supported having Rafael Palmeiro's stats erased from the record books.
-We need a
Pittsburgh Steelers fan that lives in
Drew Bledsoe's old house.
Today, Schilling lives in Medfield, Massachusetts, in Drew Bledsoe's old house.
Schilling is a Pittsburgh Steelers fan.
But the real point of this is of COURSE
Schilling would be better than
Kerry. I mean, which of these images strikes you as more courageous?
This one or
this one?
This one or
this one?
You, Massachusetts voter, will have to decide in 2008.
You will have to decide which is a more important issue: fewer tax cuts that benefit the wealthy, or to “fire everybody and anybody who had anything to do with the Big Dig”?
In an election like this, it may very well come down the character and makeup. And we all know that of the two of them,
Kerry has
never won the big one. And true Massachusettsites aren't measured in experience on the senate floor, they're measured in
moments.
One
Schilling quote that didn't make it into the article: "I can't wait to tell 49 percent of the electorate to
shut up."
*Yeah, yeah, it's his hometown. We still think this is funny.
A Closer Look at the 2006 Arizona Fall League All-Prospects Team, Part I: Pitchers
The Phoenix Desert Dogs were darlings of a nation as they closed the book on the 2006 Arizona Fall League season, defeating the Grand Canyon Rafters 6-2 to take home the crown. Some say it was fate, some say it was luck, others claim that Phoenix was the only team that finished the regular season with a winning record. But we're not here to talk about any of that. We're here to see what players took advantage of playing nearly every day for two months in front of a slew of scouts and coaches deciding their major league fates for 2007. In this post and a couple to follow, I'll be breaking down the 2006 All-Prospects team, hopefully shedding some light on what we can expect in 2007 from these lil' rascals. I'm starting today with the hurlers.
Starters
Kyle Yates (Toronto) - RHP, Phoenix Desert Dogs
1/08/1983, 5'11", 190, Univ. of Texas
Selected by Toronto in the 13th round of the 2004 amateur draft.
2006:
A+ Dunedin (Florida State League): 2-0, 0.64, 14.0 IP, 0 HR, 8 H, 0 BB, 13 K, BAA .163
AA New Hampshire (Eastern League): 6-9, 3.75, 1 SHO, 1 SV, 127.1 IP, 10 HR, 118 H, 38 BB, 115 K, BAA .246
AFL: 2-0, 1.13, 24.0 IP, 1 HR, 19 H, 6 BB, 25 K, BAA .224
2007 Projections:
PECOTA: 5-7, 5.8, 104.3 IP, 19 HR, 39 BB, 62 K, 1.54 WHIP, 0.8 VORP, 1.3 WARP
ZiPS: 8-10, 5.29, 165.0 IP, 29 HR, 48 BB, 95 K
Marcels: N/A
At age 24 as of a couple weeks ago,
Yates appears to be on the right track. A short stint at high-A led to a successful season at AA (record's not much to look at, but check out the K/BB), and he finished it off pitching for the champion Desert Dogs and being named to the all-AFL team, leading the league with his 25 strikeouts.
Firstinning.com has this to say about Yates:
Yates had an eye-catching 1.91ERA at Dunedin last year, but his component statistics suggests he won't repeat that level of success in the near future. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is good, but Yates is too hittable to have much success in the upper minor leagues.
Not very optimistic; they project
Yates to be a back-end starter for the Jays in 2008. Toronto, however, is stocked with starting pitching, so if
Yates' productivity doesn't increase somewhat, look for him to be headed back to the pen (after the recent conversion to starter) before he hits the AL.
Yates is a meat-and-potatoes fastball, curveball, changeup pitcher with a fastball that tops out at about 90 or 91 and his changeup is 79-81. Some people that have watched
Yates think there may be some problems with his delivery (short-arming the release, shaky throwing arm), but the reports I'm reading are from a couple years ago, so I'm sure if there was anything wrong it's been caught by now, and the numbers he put up this year agree with that. Look for him to get a real chance at AAA in 2007; that could be a do-or-die situation for
Yates.
Matt Albers (Houston) - RHP, Mesa Solar Sox
1/20/1983, 6'0", 205, San Jacinto Community College (Texas)
Selected by Houston in the 23rd round of the 2001 amateur draft.
2006:
AA Corpus Christi (Texas League): 10-2, 2.17, 116.0 IP, 4 HR, 96 H, 47 BB, 95 K, BAA .223
AAA Round Rock (Pacific Coast League): 2-1, 3.96, 25.0 IP, 2 HR, 24 H, 10 BB, 26 K, BAA .253
MLB Houston: 0-2, 6.00, 15.0 IP, 1 HR, 7 BB, 11 K, 1.60 WHIP, BAA .298
AFL: 0-1, 3.94, 16.0 IP, 1 HR, 14 H, 6 BB, 9 K, .241
2007 Projections:
PECOTA: 7-9, 4.84, 127.7 IP, 16 HR, 64 BB, 95 K, 1.50 WHIP, 9.0 VORP, 1.9 WARP
ZiPS: 8-10, 4.90, 156.0 IP, 19 HR, 156 H, 75 BB, 106 K
Marcels: 2-3, 4.50, 50.0 IP, 6 HR, 19 BB, 38 K, 1.40 WHIP
Okay, before I say anything I have to point out that Wikipedia has
Albers's middle name incorrectly listed as "Kip." Moving on:
Albers spent some time on the big league roster this season; his best appearance came July 27 against Cincinnati, when he came in in the third in relief of
Taylor Bucholz.
Albers proceeded to go five innings, giving up two hits, walking three, striking out four and allowing no runs. His other three appearances weren't as stable.
Albers boasts a fastball, slider, and changeup. He has excellent command of the low-90s heater and the slider has potential.
Kevin Goldstein at Prospectus rates him as the seventh-best Astros prospects ("good"), and offers the following criticism:
A little short, and his pitches tend to come in straight. He began to nibble as he moved up levels, walking too many batters at Triple-A and a brief big league stint. He can overthrow his slider at times, causing it to flatten out, while also giving him trouble against lefties.
Albers's stint in the bigs puts him on the map, but something revolutionary will have to happen for him to be a force. I expect
Albers to be back and forth next season, but ultimately find a place on the Astros by the end of the year. He is commonly projected as a future back-of-the-rotation starter.
Relievers
Billy Sadler (San Francisco) - RHP, Scottsdale Scorpions
9/21/1981, 6'0", 190, Louisiana State
Selected by San Francisco in the sixth round of the 2003 amateur draft.
2006:
AA Connecticut (Eastern League): 20 SV, 2.56, 45.2 IP, 1 HR, 23 H, 29 BB, 67 K, BAA .146
AAA Fresno (Pacific Coast League): 1 SV, 1.80, 10.0 IP, 1 HR, 5 H, 2 BB, 12 K, BAA .156
MLB San Francisco: 0 SV, 6.75, 4.0 IP, 2 HR, 2 BB, 6 K, 1.75 WHIP, .294 BAA
AFL: 3 SV, 1.29, 14.0 IP, 0 HR, 9 H, 4 BB, 22 K, BAA 1.84
2007 Projections:
PECOTA: 1 SV, 4.54, 56.0 IP, 5 HR, 41 BB, 52 K, 1.59 WHIP, 5.6 VORP, 1.0 WARP
ZiPS: 4.72, 80.0 IP, 10 HR, 76 H, 45 BB, 69 K
Marcels: 4.67, 27.0 IP, 4 HR, 10 BB, 21 K, 1.37 WHIP
No, that is not
Billy Sadler on the CD cover, but it's the best picture I could come up with that would fit. Thank Blogspot for that one.
Sadler was the first pitcher I profiled in my midseason AFL roundup, and he kept up his pace... for his remaining six innings of work.
Sadler's four big league innings are obviously a small sample size, but he was decent enough to get some looks for '07, his best outing coming in the seventh inning on September 21 against Milwaukee;
Sadler faced five batters, walking one, allowing one hit and striking out the rest (
Tony Graffanino,
Geoff Jenkins, and
Drew Anderson). After striking out 22 in 14 innings in Arizona,
Sadler should get some good looks for the Giants' pen, even as full as it already is.
As far as
Sadler's stuff, there is some disagreement; undisputed is his 93-95 mph tailing fastball, but Prospectus says he features a "plus curve", while Baseball America has said that his "hard-biting slider" is whiffing people. Prospectus also says that he can get into trouble with his curve; he probably has both pitches, one better than the other.
Either way, he should see significant big-league time next year. But with the crowded bullpen, full rotation, and plethora of pitching prospects the Giants have, that's hardly a guarantee. It's amazing what a clusterfuck SF's roster is.
Jesse Chavez (Pittsburgh) - RHP, Grand Canyon Rafters
8/21/1983, 6'1", 160, Riverside CC (Calif.)
Selected by Texas in the 42nd round of the 2002 amateur draft.
2006:
AA Frisco (Texas League): 4 SV, 4.42, 59.0 IP, 5 HR, 54 H, 28 BB, 70 K, BAA .245
AAA Oklahoma (Pacific Coast League): 0 SV, 4.50, 2.0 IP, 0 HR, 3 H, 0 BB, 3 K, BAA .333
AAA Indianapolis (International League): 0 SV, 4.24, 17.0 IP, 0 HR, 18 H, 9 BB, 15 K, BAA .273
AFL: 4 SV, 0.64, 14.0 IP, 1 HR, 6 H, 3 BB, 11 K, BAA .122
2007 Projections:
PECOTA: N/A
ZiPS: N/A
Marcels: N/A
It's tough to find info about
Chavez; as you can see above, there are no projections for him, plus Prospectus doesn't even list him as a top ten prospect in their Pirates article. There was some speculation that he was eligible for the Rule 5 draft... turned out he wasn't. Ummm, I've heard he has a good fastball... should see some time with the Pirates in 2007. 24 years old. That's all I got for you folks. More would take extensive Googling, which, to be honest, I'm not up for.
There are 18 more members of the All-Prospects team; needless to say it will take me a while to get around to all of them. But hey, that's why
Walsh is here; to pick up the slack!
This Ballfield Just Got a Little Ol'er...
Folks, I am pleased to announce that this blog has a new member: Mr.
Brian Walsh.
Walsh will provide somewhat of a different perspective on many issues, although I'm sure you'll find that the viewpoints are well-presented and the analysis thoughtful. I am aware that by doing this I am literally cutting my readership in half, but it should be worth it for some of the lively debate this will start. And if you don't believe me, just read his first post, which will shortly follow.
So welcome,
Mr. Walsh, and let's keep truckin' through this offseason.
Fun With BBRef's Streak Finder
Baseball Reference is doing some amazing things, and I highly recommend the new PI feature. Today's fun:
An indication of just how dominant
Mark Prior was, and could be again. He holds the second-longest streak of games pitched with five or more strikeouts (since 1957), with
50.
Prior has started 106 games in his major league career, and 50 of those, in a row, contained five or more strikeouts.
Yes, I do have a non-sexual crush on
Mark Prior. Oh, please be good again! Curse you
Dusty!
The longest streak?
Randy Johnson with 69. If you look at the
streak leaders for 10 or more,
Johnson's name shows up an amazing amount.
Big news coming up with the next post.
I Can't Decide Who I Hate More: The Actual Maris Family or the Actors That Portrayed Them in 61************
Rich Maris, son of former Yankee legend
Roger Maris, is saying some stupid things, most recently in an
interview with our favorite SI writer,
Jon Heyman:
Maris is a man who chooses his words carefully but leaves little doubt as to where he stands on issues involving his father, including whom he believes is still the true single-season home run record holder. "If everything comes out the way it looks like it's going to come out, I feel my dad is," Maris told me.
For someone whose father was so dogged by claims that his record was illegitimate that he was driven to chain smoking which aided the lung cancer that killed him, this seems to me to be a confusing claim.
Roger Maris had the following to say about his treatment:
They acted as though I was doing something wrong, poisoning the record books or something. Do you know what I have to show for 61 home runs? Nothing. Exactly nothing.
We don't know exactly what effect steroids has on one's ability to hit a home run. We do know the exact effect of having eight extra games to do it in.
Mark McGwire, of course, hit his 61st in 143 games, leaving no doubt.
Just for fun, here's everyone that's hit 60 home runs, and the amount of games their team had played to that point, and when they hit their 61st (respectively):
Babe Ruth (1927): 154
Roger Maris (1961): 158, 162
Sammy Sosa (1998): 149, 150
Mark McGwire (1998): 141, 143
Sammy Sosa (1999): 148, 149
Mark McGwire (1999): 155, 156
Sammy Sosa (2001): 157, 158
Barry Bonds (2001): 141, 144
It seems like there are a lot of possible answers to that question, and none of the most interesting ones would involve
Maris, steroids or not.
Heyman (or as I call him,
Verducci-for-a-day) makes it clear in the article that
Rich Maris has made a very nice life for himself. I think he should let this one go.
It's Officially the Offseason: Brian Cashman Finally F***s Up (And, Amazingly, So Does Terry Ryan)
The Yankees have, pending a physical, agreed to a short-term contract with first baseman
Doug Mientkiewicz. This move ostensibly helps the Yankees' defense by giving
Jason Giambi more opportunities to DH. How good a fielder, though, is
Mientkiewicz really? The one thing he's always had to his credit was the 2001 Gold Glove Award, but as we've learned, Gold Gloves, especially at first base, are pretty flimsy awards at best, because they're voted on by managers that don't see people play unless they're in the opposing dugout. But is his professed prowess enough to make up for what the Yankees would lose in offensive production? Let's look at some stats (BRAR=Batting runs above replacement; FRAR=Fielding runs above replacement):
Mientkiewicz BRAR, 2006: 12
Giambi BRAR, 2006: 55
So
Mientkiewicz gave the Royals about one win with the bat last season,
Giambi gave the Yankees about five and a half.
Mientkiewicz FRAR, 2006: 0
Giambi FRAR, 2006: -4
That's right; Prospectus says that
Mientkiewicz was actually a AAA-level fielder in 2006. The difference of 33 runs in batting is not nearly made up for by the four runs in fielding. Let's look farther back:
Mientkiewicz BRAR, 2004-06: 21
Giambi BRAR, 2004-06: 121
That's including an 80-game 2004 for
Giambi.
Mientkiewicz FRAR, 2004-06: 4
Giambi FRAR, 2004-06: -1
This is telling me that
Mientkiewicz--who had three great seasons from 2001-03 before his production took a big hit--is not that much better a fielder than
Giambi (compare 7 errors in the past two seasons to 14; twice as many, but not a huge figure cumulatively), while being a far inferior hitter. His batting stats actually took a jump in Kansas City; he EqA'd .265, giving him an above-average figure for the first time since 2003.
Giambi, of course, has not EqA'd less than .300 in a full season since 1998.
Of course, a good argument for getting Giambi off of first is durability; more games DHing means more games he's not straining his hand, or whatever. But this is money wasted when
Andy Phillips could be giving the Yankees their replacement-level hitting and fielding for cheaper. Hell, if people are so up in arms about
Melky Cabrera having nowhere to go, teach
him to play first, or
Hideki Matsui, as has been suggested. Dumb move in New York.
---
Twins agree to minor-league deal with Sydney PonsonWHY WHY WHY WHY WHY WHY WHY?!
Ponson, since 2003:
Seasons with an ERA under 5.30: ZERO
Seasons with an ERA+ over 100: ZERO
Seasons with a WHIP under 1.55: ZERO
Seasons with above-average pitching runs: ZERO
Number of judges assaulted in his native Aruba: One
The numbers don't lie.
Tribute to Steve Yzerman
Again, this isn't even close to baseball news, but tonight the Detroit Red Wings will be retiring the number 19 of my all-time favorite athlete,
Steve Yzerman. Since I, you know, don't have any other websites, this is where I'm putting my tribute. I don't have much to say about
Yzerman that hasn't already been said, but he was truly an admirable athlete and special hockey player. The longest-tenured captain in NHL history, he transformed from a star rookie (drafted fourth overall in 1983) to an elite player (65 goals and 90 assists in 1988-89) to one of the great team leaders in the history of sports (three Stanley Cup championships as captain [1997, 98, 2002], Conn Smythe Trophy winner [1998], Selke Award winner [2000], Bill Masterson Memorial Trophy winner [2003]).
Yzerman also attained success in international play, playing for two Canadian Olympic teams (1998, 2002), winning the gold in 2002.
Wayne Gretzky announced in late 2005 that no one would ever again wear number 19 for the Canadian national team.
My favorite personal memory of
Yzerman encompasses basically all of the first half of 2002.
During the regular season he had reaggravated a knee injury that would cost him 30 games and require immediate post-season surgery. He still finished the season sixth on the team in scoring, and helped team Canada to a gold medal. (As an American I wasn't really
rooting for Canada, but seeing
Stevie win one was consolation enough.) He then went on to finish second among all players in scoring that playoff season en route to his third and final Stanley Cup victory. I watched every game that playoff, to the point where I was in a school play and had hooked up a TV backstage to watch game seven of the Conference Final when I wasn't on. Every time
Yzerman fell or was pushed to the ice, it required the utmost effort to get back on his feet, using his stick for leverage and support every time. It was truly painful to watch, and yet this man finished second in scoring and first in faceoff percentage. (Finishing first in scoring that playoffs was
Peter Forsberg, who later admitted to playing with a broken wrist. That was a year for battlers.)
As a leader
Yzerman was soft-spoken, but all who played under his captaincy speak to the attention he commanded when he had
something to say. He was the epitome of a leader by example, someone who let his playing and effort do the talking. He never did many ads, never held out for salary, never seemed to lose his focus as an
entire city went nuts for him.
Yzerman finished with 1,755 career points, good for sixth all-time; he is one of two players in the top ten (
Mario Lemieux) to have scored all his points for one team. His totals for career goals, assists, and playoff points also all register in the top ten all-time. Hell, he even had a couple
fights (ugly though they were).
I feel extremely fortunate to have been able to follow a player like
Stevie Y and even see him play in person a couple times. I wrote to him as a child and he sent me a signed card, which was a thrill. He will always be a hockey legend, and one of my personal heroes. Thanks for a great career,
Stevie.
There are a bunch of tribute videos on YouTube, but I freakin' hate how they put a stupid song along with every one, so
pick your poison.
---
And in case anyone was wondering,
Lou Gehrig is my all-time favorite baseball player. Never got to see him play, though.
The next post will be far less sappy and lip-service-y, I promise.
Prove Joe Morgan Something
Happy new year to everyone from The Ol' Ballfield! 2007 should be a great year for baseball, especially if
1907 is any indication! It was the year the 107-win Cubs defeated Detroit in the first of three straight World Series' Detroit would lose, in an Atlanta Braves-like run. Chicago won the series in five games, 4-0-1. That's right, you read that right, the 1907 World Series featured the
first of
two ties in modern postseason history. (This, of course, does not count the
2002 All Star Game.) In game one, the two teams were locked at 3-3 when the game was called on account of darkness in the 12th inning.
I doubt the Cubs will have 107 wins in 2007, or even smell third place, but with the signing of
Gary Sheffield, the Tigers are in prime position to lose a couple more World Series'.
Where was I? Ah, yes, the title of this post. I posted today because of something
Joe Morgan said that I thought was stupid, and I was going to try to prove him wrong. But I thought I would post first, and then try to prove him wrong, so that if
I turned out to be wrong, I wouldn't be able to get out of it.
The quote in question concerns this happy character:
Dave Concepcion, whose passing over for the Hall makes
baby Jesus cry year after year. Before we get to
Joe's comment, there are a couple things to point out:
1) In
this picture Concepcion looks like he's way to young to be holding a bat, much less playing for Cincinnati. Honestly, is it me, or are there pimples on his chin? Would we have to re-create those for the plaque? And the extra-long last name doesn't exactly help the fact that his jersey looks five sizes too large.
2) In
this article,
Concepcion says the following about choosing a jersey number:
"The 58 jersey was too big, and I wanted 8, 11, 17 and a bunch of others, but they were all gone," former Reds great Dave Concepcion said during breakfast at his home on Thursday. "I thought about my mom and how she was born in 1913. I am glad because that No. 13 has brought me good luck. Nineteen was gone, too."
A true hall-of-famer puts his family foremost in his mind. Or after 58, eight, 11, 17 and a bunch of others. But it was his mother that truly inspired his choice. Oh, 19 was gone too. (By the way, who wrote that article? What kind of number formatting is that? Can you manage to be consistent within one paragraph, at least?)
3) In
this article,
Davey has this to say:
"I know some people who had good stats are coming up, like Cal Ripken and Tony Gwynn," Concepcion said. "But I only have two more opportunities to get in or I'll have to sit out for years and wait for the veterans to vote."
Boo-fucking-hoo! It doesn't matter who has more of a chance to get into the Hall. What matters is that the right people get in. And it's gonna take a lot of convincing to convince me that you're the right person.
Concepcion's WARP3 was 109.7, very impressive, but not as good as
Gwynn or
Ripken, or
Joe Morgan or
Paul Molitor or even
Ozzie Smith. His FRAR, adjusted for all-time, was 712, also very impressive, in fact better than
Ripken's but still not drop-dead enough to guarantee admission on fielding alone. Not to mention that
Concepcion's EqA was a dismal .257, worse than a LOT of people, plenty of whom are nowhere near Cooperstown.
Besides the fact that
Concepcion is a borderline case at best, it sickens me to see athletes campaigning like this. Whatever happened to the phrase "I let my playing do the talking"? I think a lot of players realized later that their playing, it turns out, doesn't really dig this whole public speaking thing, and they'd better add some
whining of their own.
But, uh, I'm glad to see
Concepcion is eating breakfast, the most important meal of the day, especially for hall-of-famers.
Anyway, on to what
Joe Morgan, who should be and is a hall-of-famer, had to say:
"During my era, Davey was the best shortstop in baseball," Morgan said in a statement. "He was a Gold Glove winner and one of the best clutch hitters on the best team in baseball. He has been overshadowed by the new generation of sluggers at the shortstop position. If he played in the home run era, he would have hit 20-30 homers per year. He is definitely a Hall of Famer."
Now,
Morgan is right about the fielding.
Concepcion was an incredible fielder. Really, even by the numbers. But there is just no way this guy, who averaged seven home runs a season, would have hit 20-30 in the late nineties. The mound was lowered after the 1968 season, two years before
Concepcion's debut, so it ain't like he piled up those numbers in a tight defensive era. The "home run era" saw about half a run more per game than
Concepcion did during his career. Using
BaseballReference's fantastic new neutralizing feature, let's see what the analysts say about
Davey's chances to be a
Derek Jeter-type hitter while fielding much, much, much much better.
Concepcion hit 101 home runs in his career, or 65 more than
Phil Rizzuto, if you're an idiot supporting his candidacy. His career high was 16 in 1979. Adjusted so that his totals reflect seasons played at the historical average 4.63 runs per game (rather than the 4.22 that was the average during
Concepcion's career), we see his totals leap to 109 on his career, 17 in 1979. You can also use this feature to choose a particular year. Let's choose 2000, which saw 5.14 runs per game, the most since 1936. You can also adjust for league and ballpark. The NL scored .3 runs fewer per game than the AL that year, so in the interest of proving
Joe really wrong, we'll say AL, even though
Davey was a Red. We'll also go with a neutral park. What happens?
Concepcion's total skyrockets to 117 on his career, and a high of... 18 in 1979! We're getting closer to making
Morgan's prediction even relevant, if not fathomable. Let's put those same stats into the Metrodome, the most hitter-friendly park this feature offers.
Concecpcion's career total becomes 122, with a career-high of.... 19 in 1979! We're getting closer!
To sum up, there's no freakin' way this guy would have hit 20-30 home runs in the late nineties/early 2000s, and he probably wouldn't even have hit 20 once. This power-hungry, roided up shortstop would have averaged eight dingers a year. Ladies and Gentlemen, we have proved
Joe Morgan wrong!
Concepcion was a good enough shortstop that there should at least be some discussion about the Hall. But the only other shortstop to get in based purely on defense was
Ozzie Smith, and even he was a better hitter, and a much better fielder.
I would write a longer conclusion, but I'm getting tired. Happy New Year!
