This was brought up over on FJM (imagine that), but it turns out that David Eckstein's wife of almost a year, Ashley Drane (an actor), was a Silver Medal winner on GUTS in 1994. I can't imagine how gritty that performance must have been.
More Options than Springfield College; MLB News and Notes
Gooooooooooood morning!
-Red Sox Pick Up Wakefield's option
Wakefield's contract is structured so that every time the Sox pick up a team option, another one magically appears for the following year. Each is worth $4 million.
The Red Sox know what they are getting for their money; Wakefield is by far the longest-tenured player on the team. Of course, he will be 40 next season, and 2006 was not a good year; he threw his fewest number of innings since he spent part of the year as a closer in 1999, and didn't impress. 2005 was an excellent season for Wakefield, but 2006 looks a lot like 2004, if you get my drift. Which seasons do you think are lying to us?
-Padres Decline Option on Piazza
At first, one may look at Piazza's not bad 120 OPS+ and his not bad 27.1 VORP and wonder why. Then when one sees that his .501 slugging pct. (his best since 2002) is holding up his .342 OBP (excluding 2005, his worst since his pre-rookie year of 1992), and one adds in that Piazza was a worse-than-replacement-level fielder this year (-2 FRAR), one might begin to understand... Guys that only slug and don't play a good defense become much less valuable in PETCO Park. Piazza's buyout price was $750,000.
-White Sox Pick Up Options on Dye, Buehrle and Iguchi
No surprises there. Dye got a few yells for MVP this season, putting up a 1.007 OPS, the highest of his career, and a 64.6 VORP, ninth in the AL. His option is worth $6.75 million, which could rise to $7 million based on MVP voting results. Buehrle, entering his prime, had by far the worst season of his career in 2006, and there is little reason to believe he won't return to form in 2007; his Achilles' heel in '06 was home runs; he gave up .8 or so more home runs per game in 2006 than he did in 2005. His line drive rate sunk, though, and I don't see any evidence that he didn't just have an off year. His option was worth $9.5 million. Iguchi's numbers went up in most categories except slugging pct. and line drive pct. His option was worth $3.25 million.
-Free Agency City
Here is a list of all the players that have filed for free agency. I'm working on a more detailed list that I'll get out before the bidding starts on November 12th.
-Alfonso Soriano Apparently Cuckoo
According to the Washington Post, Soriano "is seeking a deal similar to the seven-year, $119 million deal given to center fielder Carlos Beltran by the New York Mets before the 2005 season." Despite having the best season of his career (by far) in 2006, Soriano's numbers are still not as good as Beltran's were, plus he is three years older than Beltran was at the time of his deal. Add to the equation that Beltran is a better fielder... I don't know Alfons. Someone will probably pay it, though.
Here's some info on some pitchers that are performing well in Arizona so far:
(NOTE: These are all relievers. No starters have had particularly great starts in the AFL, and they are only left in for about four innings anyway. Go figure.)
Billy Sadler (San Francisco) - RHP, Scottsdale Scorpions 9/21/1981, 6'0", 190, Louisiana State Selected by San Francisco in the sixth round of the 2003 amateur draft.
Sadler currently ranks second in the AFL with 12 strikeouts, and this with only eight innings pitched. In his first five games, appearing for one inning even in each, he registered three, two, two, two, and two strikeouts. He holds an impressive WHIP of 0.68, and only two walks. Baseball America has this to say about Sadler:
Giants righthander Billy Sadler, who took home AFL pitcher of the week honors this past week, was consistently in the 93-94 mph range with his fastball, and his hard-biting slider was impressive in his one inning of work Monday.
Sadler made 44 appearances with double-A Connecticut of the Eastern League in 2006 where he registered 20 saves and a 2.56 ERA. He was promoted to AAA Fresno of the Pacific Coast League where he was equally impressive (his ERA in 10 innings was an even better 1.80) before his contract was purchased by the parent club. In San Francisco he threw four innings, allowing five hits and two walks, while striking out six. Sadler is blooming, look for him to spend more time at new Candlestick in '07.
Lincoln Holdzkom (Chicago Cubs) - RHP, Mesa Solar Sox 3/23/1982, 6'4", 240, Arizona Western CC Selected by Florida in the seventh round of the 2001 amateur draft.
After missing all of 2004 because of Tommy John surgery, and struggling in his comeback year of 2005, Holdzkom appears back on track to become a major league pitcher. He has only pitched eight innings in the AFL so far this season, but the WHIP he has to show for it? 0.25. A lot of that is due to his giving up no walks, and striking out a batter an inning. Opposing batters are hitting .083 off of him.
Holdzkom was dealt to the Cubs in spring training with Zach McCormack for Todd Wellemeyer. He was the Marlins' rop relief prospect before the surgery, which knocked him down to #23. Holdzkom has a good fastball and hard-breaking curveball (which has also been described as a "wicked slider") that could develop into closer stuff. He does, however, tend to suffer when the game is on the line and many scouts thing he is more suited to the setup role.
Holdzkom spent some time on the DL in 2006, but in 32.1 innings pitched with West Tennessee in the Southern League (AA) he posted a 1.96 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 27 strikeouts. With the shape the Cubs' staff is in, Holdzkom could be throwing for Sweet Lou at least part time by the end of 2007.
Zach Segovia (Philadelphia) - RHP, Peoria Seguaros 4/11/1983, 6'2", 245, Forney High School (Texas) Selected by Philadelphia in the second round of the 2002 amateur draft.
Segovia is another former hot prospect whose career was put on hold for Tommy John surgery. He, like Holdzkom, missed 2004 and struggled in 2005. He is punctuating a successful 2006 with a 1.04 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in 8 2/3 innings pitched with Peoria. A walk and a single were all it took for Segovia to take the loss in a one-inning appearance against Grand Canyon on Wednesday; before that he had not allowed an earned run. He has walked a batter in each of his last three appearances.
In 107 innings pitched with Reading of the Eastern League (AA) this year, Segovia recorded a 3.11 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, as well as 75 strikeouts. He threw three complete games and one shutout. Segovia was optioned mid-way through spring training in '06; expect him to last longer this year, and at least start the season with Ottawa (AAA).
Jesse Chavez (Pittsburgh) - RHP, Grand Canyon Rafters 8/21/1983, 6'1", 160, Riverside CC (Calif.) Selected by Texas in the 42nd round of the 2002 amateur draft.
Chavez has not allowed a run in 7 2/3 innings for Grand Canyon; he has struck out seven and walked only one for a WHIP of 0.78. Chavez has a good fastball, and struck out 88 batters in 78 innings this year split between Frisco of the Texas League (AA), Oklahoma of the Pacific Coast League (AAA) and Indianapolis of the International League (AAA). His ERA hovered around 4.50 for the whole season, which seems to be about where he was last season. He was brought over at the deadline in the deal that sent Kip Wells to Texas. Chavez may eventually be useful in long relief with that fastball, but I don't see much more coming from him at this point. We'll see where the AFL success is at the end of the season.
Kyle Yates (Toronto) - RHP, Phoenix Desert Dogs 1/08/1983, 5'11", 190, Univ. of Texas Selected by Toronto in the 13th round of the 2004 amateur draft.
Yates is the only pitcher on this list that has started a game; he went three innings giving up five hits and one run. Yates has only made two other appearances this season, but each was for at least three innings, which tells me this guy is being groomed as a starter, switching his role from when he was drafted, which I've heard he is comfortable with. In Yates' first appearance this season he went three innings, striking out six and allowing but one hit; five of those strikeouts were over a stretch of six batters. Yates' 13 strikeouts lead the AFL.
Yates started out the year with Dunedin of the Florida State League, which he dominated for four games. He was promoted to New Hampshire of the double-A Eastern League, where he held batters to a .246 average while registering 102 strikeouts as well as a 3.75 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. 2007 could be a breakout year for Yates, at whatever level.
I noticed as I finished this list that I didn't choose any left-handers, which is disappointing. After perusing the league leaders once again, I found a few lefties that were having okay seasons marred by a bad appearance or two. They include Mark McLemore (Houston) and Neal Musser (Unaffiliated). I'll do another round of five from each side of the plate when the season ends in late November. Between now and then, there'll be plenty to talk about between the World Series and inevitable award injustices.
For information on what players your team sent to the AFL this year, check out your team's official website and sort of hunt around for a press release. That's what I did. There may be an easier way to find out, but all I can see now is just sifting through the rosters on the AFL webpage. At any rate, keeping up with prospects is just one of the many ways to stay entertained when your team isn't playing.
1) Kudos to Tony LaRussa for bringing Adam Wainwright in when he did. Man on third in the eighth with a one-run lead was the situation where they needed their best reliever, and that was what Tony gave them.
2) This marks the fourth throwing error in this World Series by a Tiger pitcher, and the third with huge connotations. Take your time, boys.
3) David Eckstein finally had a game that could be acceptably fawned over by sportswriters. Too bad they will praise the sac bunts of the game instead.
4) Speaking of sac bunts, that's what Placido Polanco should have been doing in the eighth. Runner on second with no outs is one of the only situations in which it is even sabermetrically acceptable to sac bunt, and Polanco swings into an easy groundout. What has Jim Leyland doing in this series? Is there any chance this will all come out later as a retroactive scandal, like much of the Kennedy administration?
Who knows how long it will be until we see Major League ball again, so let's take a look at who's performing well in the southwest winter league:
Batting Chip Cannon (Toronto) - 1B, Phoenix Desert Dogs DOB: 11/30/1981, B:L T:R, 6'5", 225, The Citadel Selected by Toronto in the eighth round of the 2004 amateur draft.
Cannon is hitting .372/.472/.767 in 12 games, and shares the league lead with five home runs, two of which have come in his last two games. On Wednesday he went 4-for-6 with a home run, a double, and three RBI in a 23-9 rout of the Peoria Javelinas. It could be inferred that Cannon is playing a bit over his head, as in 135 games with New Hampshire in the Eastern League this year, his OBP was only .335, and he strikes out more than once a game. He did hit 27 home runs with New Hampshire, however.
Most impressive are Cannon's numbers in big situations: with runners on he is 9-for-17 with three home runs and 12 RBI. His number with RISP are almost as impressive.
Cannon put up numbers close to this with Dunedin of the Class A-Advanced Florida State League last season, but again suffered when he faced the pitching of AA New Hampshire. A third straight mediocre season in AA would be a bad sign for Cannon, who turns 25 at the end of the month.
Ryan Braun (Milwaukee) - 3B, Scottsdale Scorpions DOB: 11/17/1983, B:R T:R, 6'2", 200, Miami (FL) Selected by Milwaukee in the first round of the 2005 amateur draft.
Braun has been moving up through the minors at a steady pace since being drafted fifth overall in 2005. Starting last year with Helena in the Rookie ball Pioneer league, he was promoted to West Virginia of the South Atlantic league. He started 2006 with Brevard County of the Florida State League and finished with 59 games with Huntsville of the Southern League. He hit .303/.367/.589 with Huntsville, and hit 15 home runs. This fall with Scottsdale he is .311/.385/.756 with five home runs in 45 at-bats. Braun has also been called "by far the top Jewish prospect in baseball", for what it's worth.
Interesting about Braun is the fact that he has 500 points more of OPS against righties than lefties this fall. I don't know enough about the minors to say definitively why this is, but I'd guess that either a) the LHP talent in A ball and below is not very good, so he's finally seeing some good pitches from a southpaw, or b) he's just naturally a better righties hitter. Braun also has impressive situational numbers, OPSing 1.556 with runners on and 1.524 with RISP. And only .446 (that's an OPS) with the bases empty...
I would guess (CONJECTURE WARNING) that Braun will start the season with Huntsville next year, but expect to see him in Nashville (AAA) at least once before the season is out. And hey, if the Brewers' three-deep at third continues to look like this, who knows?
Kevin Frandsen (San Francisco) - 2B, Scottsdale Scorpions DOB: 5/24/1982, B:R T:R, 6'0", 175, San Jose State Selected by San Francisco in the 12th round of the 2004 amateur draft.
Frandsen, Braun's teammate at Scottsdale, caught my attention because of one number: .537, his on base percentage. He also leads the league with a .406 batting average. (.406! .406!) This has to be heartening to Giants brass who saw Frandsen hit .215/.284/.323 in 41 games in the majors this season. That's not an overly discouraging start for a 24-year-old (especially with his two home runs), but a hot season in Arizona could solidify his status as the successor to Ray Durham. Frandsen has equalled that home run total in nine games with Scottsdale, and is OPSing over 1.000 in every split except home games. He was used primarily as a pinch-hitter down the stretch for San Fran after returning from a fractured jaw, but started the Giants' final three games. He is also a blogger.
Josh Whitesell (Washington) - 1B, Peoria Saguaros DOB: 4/14/1982, B:L T:L, 6'3", 220, Loyola Marymount Selected by Montreal in the sixth round of the 2003 amateur draft.
Whitesell is posting a .394/.488/.758 line with Peoria this fall, with two home runs, 11 RBI, and nine strikeouts in nine games. He is DESTROYING left-handers with a 1.848 OPS, albeit in only 11 at-bats. Still, maybe my guess about Ryan Braun seeing better lefties in Arizona was way off the mark...
After tearing it up with Potomac of the Carolina League (A+) last season, Whitesell regressed significantly in 2006, going .264/.354/.433 with double-A Harrisburg of the Eastern League. While his PECOTA projections are, um, less than flattering, Whitesell is impressing down in Arizona. Don't, however, expect him to crack the majors next year; unless he can produce like this for a long period of time in the minors proper, there's no way Whitesell will see RFK any time soon.
Hunter Pence (Houston) - LF, Mesa Solar Sox DOB: 4/13/1983, B:R T:R, 6'4", 220, University of Texas-Arlington Selected by Houston in the second round of the 2004 amateur draft.
Pence, long thought to have been drafted too highly by Houston, is hitting .340/.386/.566 in Arizona, with two home runs and six stolen bases in 13 games. After being listed as a centerfielder, many scouts thought he lacked agility despite his good speed, and suggested he'd be better off in one of the corners, where he is now. Pence's speed was demonstrated in a three-stolen base game a week ago against Scottsdale.
After an incredible start with Lexington of the Carolina League (A), and a slightly disappointing promotion to Salem of the Carolina League (A+) in 2005, Pence hit well in 2006 with the AA Corpus Christi Hooks of the Texas league, going .283/.357/.533 with 28 dingers, 95 RBI and 31 doubles, as well as 17 stolen bases. Pence has an "ungainly" swing, and chokes up a bit too much for a big hitter, but he apparently takes instruction well and will work on getting his walk total up. Look for him in Round Rock (AAA) at some point next year, but, barring a lost season for Houston in '07, I don't see him getting significant time until 2008. It could happen towards then end of next season, though.
That's your five hitter profiles in the Arizona Fall League. I'll be back with five hurlers tomorrow.
Let's try not to let Jeff Suppan's political views (see below) distract us one way or the other; it's time for game four! The game could be suspended by rain, but there is no word yet. According to weather.com, there's a 50% chance of rain throughout the game. No official ruling on MLB.com, we'll just have to tune in.
UPDATE: Media liason Joe Buck has said that the rain is due to let up at about 9:20 EDT, and the game should start shortly after that. Oh well, I don't mind waiting a bit for ball. More analysis will follow during the delay.
NEW UPDATE: Now they're saying 10:15 EDT. Late night baseball! Also, blogger sucks and is really giving me trouble with publishing. Not sure if the LiveBlog will be so live tonight, folks.....
FINAL UPDATE: Game's rained out. Won't be able to do a LiveBlog tomorrow, but everything you find below still stands.
Lineups
DETROIT:
1. Curtis Granderson, CF 2. Craig Monroe, LF 3. Carlos Guillen, SS 4. Magglio Ordoñez, RF 5. Sean Casey, 1B 6. Ivan Rodriguez, C 7. Placido Polanco, 2B 8. Brandon Inge, 3B 9. Jeremy Bonderman, P
ST. LOUIS:
1. David Eckstein, SS 2. Chris Duncan, RF 3. Albert Pujols, 1B 4. Jim Edmonds, CF 5. Scott Rolen, 3B 6. Preston Wilson, LF 7. Yadier Molina, C 8. Aaron Miles, 2B 9. Jeff Suppan, Hidden Political Agenda, I mean P
The big story, that is, what warranted a headline on MLB.com, is the dropping of Placido Polanco to the eight-spot. The ALCS MVP, it has been well-documented, is hitless in this World Series. Guillen had normally been hitting fifth, and has earned his spot at number three as (arguably) the Tigers' best hitter this season. His OPS of .920 was the only of Tiger regular above .900. For St. Louis there are few surprises; the inclusion of slugger Chris Duncan is a no-brainer; his OPS against righties is nearly .600 points higher than against lefties. Preston Wilson kept his spot after going 1-for-3 last night with two walks.
Pitching Matchup
Jeremy Bonderman 14-8, 4.08, 202 K, 64 BB, 1.30 WHIP, .312 OBPA, 38.3 VORP Postseason: 1-0, 3.00, 7 K, 3 BB, 0.93 WHIP, .237 OBPA Last Start: vs. OAK (W 6-3), ND, 6 2/3 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 3 K, 2 BB, 1 HR
Suppan is having a really good postseason, despite a frightening walk total. Bonderman, however, has trumped him. Bonderman was perfect through five against New York in what would be the deciding game of the ALDS, and was solid in the start displayed above, although his ass would later be saved by the most famous home run of the 2006 postseason (Sorry, So). Suppan at first glance matches up good with the Tiger offense, as he can keep the sluggers off balance with good command of his cutter, curve and change. He has trouble getting a strikeout when he needs one, though, with no real "go-to" pitch. Suppan is very able to keep St. Louis in the game, but don't expect him to dominate; in fact a couple mistakes in a row could lead to a big inning for the Tigers faster than Suppan maybe have displayed on the way to his NLCS MVP. Bonderman has more dominant stuff, and is getting better control of it all the time. His fastball is mid-90s, but has been known to hit 98 when he reaches back, and he controls it well at his age. Bonderman has a hot slider and a somewhat ineffective changeup. If his control is spot-on as it was in New York, the Tigers could easily even the series tonight. If, however, he has some problems with his location as Justin Verlander did in game one, St. Louis could be looking at the commanding 3-1 lead. With Duncan, Pujols, and Edmonds stacked at the top of that lineup, things could go wrong if Bonderman is off at the wrong time.
-The World Series gives us a certain something we only get for two other weeks out of the year, and before that not at all: AL pitchers batting. Whether or not a pitcher's mound contribution is far greater than at the plate, that is a spot in the order, and it is valuable. How do the starters, who figure to be in the game the longest, stack up against each other?
Jeremy Bonderman 2006: 0-4, 4 K, 0 SH Career: 0-19, 12 K, 0 SH
Jeff Suppan 2006: .218/.295/.236, .198 EqA, 5 BB, 11 K, 1 2B, 9 SH Career: .195/.241/.223, .170 EqA, 12 BB, 53 K, 4 2B, 1 HR, 35 SH
I'd say ol' Soupy has the edge! He's even enjoying a better year at the plate than he's used to.
-In an earlier post about the Tigers, I made the claim (based on data from The Hardball Times) that Detroit had the best fielding team in the league. At that point, Brandon Inge set out to destroy my reputation. His fielding numbers during the season were excellent; despite having 22 errors, fourth among third basemen, he ranks sixth in double plays turned, first in range factor, and put up 38 FRAR. In the playoffs he's muffed balls, missed throws, and gotten bowled over by Scott Rolen, giving up a run. Is he the Alex Rodriguez of fielding? No, because that is stupid. He is, however, doing badly enough to have Jim Leyland put in a defensive replacement for him in the form of Neifi Perez, in a rather nonsensicle double-switch. Of course, Inge's numbers may be inflated by a Tiger pitching staff that induced many ground balls during the season. Inge does rank fourth in the AL with 5.5 defensive win shares, however.
The Tigers have come to Inge's "defense" (har!), saying publicly that "hell, he gets ta mar balls then them other fielders, sos he makes more errors thereon, quandary!" That's not a direct quote, but I'm skeptical of the claim that Inge's increased range causes more errors. The bottom line for a scorer deciding what is an error is: If the play was made correctly, what would the outcome have been? If Inge is getting to balls an average fielder wouldn't, his mishandling of those particular balls shouldn't really count against him in the error department, unless he does things like hurry a throw, as he has already done more than once this postseason.
I think the evidence points to Inge as being an above average but undisciplined fielder. This is his second full year at third, and it can be expected that he will become more and more comfortable with the position as time goes on, unless he's the Alex Rodriguez of third base! Inge is an inconsistent fielder that for whatever reason had a great year in 2006 for a great defense in Detroit.
Save Us, Jeff Suppan and Mike Sweeney! Save Us From Ourselves!
In a response to Michael J. Fox's campaign ad in favor of stem cell research, seen here:
EDIT: It has been postulated to me by a few people that Fox was "obviously faking" in that ad. For the record, none of these people are doctors. One person who is a doctor put it to me that Fox's excessive swaying in the ad is indeed not a symptom of Parkinson's, which causes rigidity; the swaying you see there is dyskinesia, which is a symptom of medication that combats the rigidity and sends dopamine to the brain to free things up a little. If Fox had taken no medication, as Rush Limbaugh suggested, he would have been unable to talk. A recent video of Fox can be seen here; his swaying, though subdued, is obviously still there. The effects of the medication can vary from hour to hour; whether the ad-makers chose an hour that was particularly bad is up for debate. But whether Fox was faking, at this point, is not. And anyway, none of this has to do with the point of this post, which, I swear, will get to baseball.
An opposing ad has been made that will air during the World Series tonight, featuring some ballplayers, seen here:
WOW.
So the best way to counter an ad about stem cell research, featuring a famous person that has Parkinson's disease (his easily identifiable connection to the issue) is to run an ad featuring other famous people (Their connection to the issue? Oh, right, some of them are loosely affiliated with Missouri.). Better yet, we'll use LOTS of famous people! Fox has a legitimate reason to be concerned, and I find myself believing that because of his disease and his well-documented desire to return to acting he has put a lot of thought into the issue of how to find a cure. WHY DO I CARE ABOUT JEFF SUPPAN, KURT WARNER, PATRICIA HEATON, OR MIKE SWEENEY IN RELATION TO STEM CELLS? MOST OF THEM JUST PLAY BALL IN MISSOURI!
I won't analyze the ad, except to say that the only person that makes any kind of good point is Patricia Heaton, although I'm not sure what her connection to stem cell research OR the state of Missouri is.
And I don't care about Mike Sweeney's career anymore, now all I'll remember him for is staring at the camera and bellowing "25 women have died."
Sorry I haven't posted in a week... DIII football season has been taking a lot of my time. Don't believe me? Fine, but it's true. Here are a few quick thoughts, and tonight I will LiveBlog game four of the Series:
-Kenny Rogers is cheating, but I always thought it was kind of cool how pitchers doctored the ball. If he got caught, he should have been ejected. He wasn't caught (technically), and everyone knows about it now, so he'll be more careful next time. Everybody does it, and it's not a huge problem.
-Gaylord Perry is a gigantic douche. He takes his status as a greaser and uses it to elevate him, sort of staking a claim to the art of doctoring. Who do you have more respect for, Whitey Ford, who had a great career with some doctoring and kept quiet about it, or Perry, who had a great career with some doctoring, and keeps shooting his mouth off in a bragging manner about how he "beat the system", even though countless pitchers have done it since the beginning of time, and who has chosen for this to be his legacy to baseball. How many baseball fans know Perry won two Cy Youngs? Not as many compared to the factions that know him for his doctoring.
-An interesting payroll/performance graphic. The most effeciently-run teams? Minnesota and Oakland. No surprise there. Kudos also to Florida, who come in at third with a $15 million payroll. WOW. And reverse kudos to the Cubs. Dusty Baker needed to go, but I think Jim Hendry needs to go even worse. (Warning to Firefox users: sometimes this link makes my browser close, don't know why. Fair warning.)
-Billy Beane and Tony LaRussa are suffering from the same disease: "A-little-bit-overrated-because-a-book-came-out-about-how-great-you-are-but-as-a-result- the-backlash-has-been-overcompensating-and-now-you-are-somewhat-underrated-itis." Beane, in addition to suffering the wrath of crotchetysportswriterseverywhere, has incurred more criticism for firing Ken Macha. Beane has been labeled as too controlling over the team, not giving his manager enough sway or power, as well as overruling his decisions and diminishing the manager's standing with the players. A number of A's player have gone on record saying Macha was not a good handler of the team's needs, but people have speculated that Beane forced them to say it. My thoughts: Look, Michael Lewis may have polished Billy Beane's knob a little much in Moneyball, but that doesn't change the fact that Beane has done a remarkable and revolutionary job at the helm of Oakland. The A's, under Beane, have more collective victories than any team in baseball apart from the Yankees, and have made the playoffs more than any AL team apart from the Yankees. With a payroll that has never been in the top ten in baseball, this is a remarkable feat. And it wasn't because of Art Howe or Ken Macha; it was because of the players put on the field by Billy Beane. Managers going into Oakland should know that this is Beane's team, and he calls the shots. That's not the way it has been done in baseball, and it's not the popular method even now. But Beane's rejection of these standards is what has made him successful. As far as LaRussa is concerned, George Will'sMen at Work is also a bit of a knob-polisher. It led people to view LaRussa as some sort of law-school-trained deity of baseball thinking, and when he didn't win a World Series since 1989, that led to his labelling of "overrated". The people that do this labelling are the same people that fell for Will's romanticization; i.e. THE ONLY ONES THEY'RE REACTING TO ARE THEMSELVES. Tony LaRussa may not be a God of managing, but he gets respect from his players and the media, handles his pitching staff well and plays the percentages as best he can. That's really all that can be asked of a good manager.
Tonight could be the clincher for St. Louis, and I'll be providing you with half-assed commentary the whole way. Here are the starting lineups:
St. Louis 1. David Eckstein, SS 2. Scott Spiezio, LF 3. Albert Pujols, 1B 4. Jim Edmonds, CF 5. Juan Encarnacion, RF 6. Scott Rolen, 3B 7. Ronnie Belliard, 2B 8. Yadier Molina, C 9. Chris Carpenter, P
New York 1. Jose Reyes, SS 2. Paul Lo Duca, C 3. Carlos Beltran, CF 4. Carlos Delgado, 1B 5. David Wright, 3B 6. Shawn Green, RF 7. Jose Valentin, 2B 8. Endy Chavez, LF 9. John Maine, P
Edmonds is bumped up to cleanup, where he was for the Cardinals' 9-6 victory in game two. Disgruntled Rolen is in the lineup, albeit at sixth. No argument here; Rolen is a sure thing at third, but is OPSing a paltry .494 in the postseason. I would like to see Chris Duncan in the place of Spiezio; despite a couple big hits, Spiezio is one of the few Cardinal regulars batting worse than Rolen. Duncan is also a left-handed bat against the right-handed Maine; why not use Spiezio's switch-hitting in a matchup situation later against the Mets' powerful bullpen?
John Maine Reg. Season: 6-5, 3.60, 71 K, 33 BB, 1.13 WHIP, .287 OBPA, 20.1 VORP Postseason: 0-0, 4.32, 8 K, 7 BB, 1.80 WHIP, .395 OBPA Last start: vs. STL (L, 6-9) ND, 4.0 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 3 K, 5 BB, 1 HR
These two last met in game two, and neither pitcher fared particularly well then. Maine has a real problem with his strikeout-to-walk ratio, and Carpenter also exhibited control problems last week. Willie Randolph is hoping to get a lot of time out of Maine, especially since long-reliever Darren Oliver is a possibility to start a deciding game seven. The Cardinals are very, very beatable, but Maine can't allow the Redbirds' lineup to get good spurts against him.
If any lineup can beat Carpenter, it's the Mets'. With some good left-handed hitting, this could be another long night for last year's Cy Young winner. They could, however, go anemic as they did against righty Jeff Suppan in game three.
Should be a good game, check back for updates.
Pre-game:
-Oh, goody, an interview with Todd Jones coming up! Yuck.
-"I'm rollin' with my rims"? Yeesh. Why is FOX always trying to combine sports with pop culture? It's like if Bill Simmons had his own network. I shudder at the thought of it.
-I'm sorry, did Kevin Kennedy just say that both of Kenny Rogers' postseason starts were on the road?! Yankee and Athletic fans will tell you that is nottrue. How hard is it to be right about this stuff, seriously?
-When comparing Maine and Carpenter, FOX uses Carpenter's 4-0 postseason record, and Maine's four innings from last week. Carpenter's postseason has been shaky despite his record, but even if you are going to use a stupid stat, why not make it even and mention Maine's 0-0 record?! I hate hate HATE FOX.
TOP 1st:
-Glad to see the Mets are going with the pinstripes. I don't like the basic whites as much... although both are much better than the blacks, which look like BP jerseys.
-I was waiting until after the Pujols at-bat to comment on Maine. It wasn't a badly-pitched at-bat. If you can throw five straight heaters at Pujols and not get hit, you're locating them well. And even though Tim McCarver said that Maine "hung" the curveball, it actually was a good pitch; Pujols dug it out from his ankles, as Pujols is known to do.
-Great block by Lo Duca. Calm down, meat. Make your pitches. I swear this lineup is not as scary as it looks.
-Got out of it. Let's see if Maine can build off that.
0 R, 2 H, 0 E, 3 LOB
St. Louis 0, New York 0
BOTTOM 1st:
-There's that left-handed hitting.... Cy Carpenter is hiding in this series. I love Reyes' golf home run swing.
-"'Legit' #1 starter" and "First things first" do not mean anything. How is that a scouting report? I hate hate hate HATE FOX.
1 R, 1 H, 0 E, 0 LOB
New York 1, St. Louis 0
TOP 2nd:
-Another supid scouting report. Also, McCarver doesn't even elaborate, he just reads the text off the screen.
-Aaaaaaagggghhhh the "keys to the game" are even worse aaaaaagggghhhhhh. Wow, Maine is the sixthrookiepitcher to start an LCS game with his team facing elimination. I italicized all the modifiers in that sentence. WHO CARES? Okay, I'll stop complaining about FOX for a while.
0 R, 0 H, 0 E, 0 LOB
New York 1, St. Louis 0
BOTTOM 2nd:
-I wonder how much Carpenter's great numbers are inflated by his division? The answer later.
0 R, 1 H, 0 E, 0 LOB
New York 1, St. Louis 0
TOP 3rd:
-Not much. He has a sick 0.92 ERA against Pittsburgh, but he also has a 6.00 ERA against Milwaukee. He has bad and good numbers against other teams from around the league. Boring answer, sorry.
-The first walk for Maine. This could open up the floodgates.
-McCarver just said that Cardinal hitters have to lay off Maine's "high-riding" fastball, and wait for him to get the ball down. I don't know, if that high-riding fastball is anything but great, it could be a home run ball pretty easily. How close was Pujols on those two fouls straight back?
-Lo Duca having a great game behind the plate so far. If I cared, I'd want him to win the Gold Glove.
-No, no, no, Willie! Why are you walking Pujols to get to Edmonds, who hit a home run off of Maine last game, while Pujols has been having a sub-par series? Why are you walking anyone at all when you have a one-run lead?
-Edmonds just missed that one. I stand by my criticism of Randolph.
-Encarnacion did not "just" miss that one. Chalk one up to McCarver on the "lay off the high fastball" strategy. Hey, that reminds me of A League of Their Own. "Lay off the high ones!" "I like the high ones!" Oh, Geena Davis!
0 R, 1 H, 0 E, 2 LOB
New York 1, St. Louis 0
BOTTOM 3rd:
-Carpenter has a terrible pickoff move. He might as well take a three-step drop. Maybe that's why Molina's CS numbers are so high.
-Lo Duca's walking-to-the-plate music is "Stayin' Alive"! There are so many reasons to like this guy.
-Ever notice how the best any kind of player any former player has ever seen played at the same time as the commenter? That was a convoluted sentence.
-I don't care who you are, no man deserves to have Ronnie Belliard fall on him.
0 R, 1 H, 0 E, 1 LOB
New York 1, St. Louis 0
TOP 4th:
-Maine is starting to put it all together. After a shaky first couple, he is starting to buckle down and take my advice about the Cardinals' lineup.
-McCarver: "A bad walk for John Maine and the Mets, but not for the Cardinals." Thank you.
-Why, we've got ourselves a mini-pitchers' duel, with neither pitcher being particularly dominant. All it's gonna take is one team breaking it open to decide the game.
0 R, 0 H, 0 E, 1 LOB
New York 1, St. Louis 0
BOTTOM 4th:
-Jeez Chris, where's that deuce been all night?
-Yes, Joe Buck, Delgado could have hit that harder. He could have hit it so hard that it went over the fence.
-Shawn Green gets lucky to the tune of an RBI. That's two hits that have gotten through to Eckstein's right. Maybe he's shading a little too far.
1 R, 2 H, 0 E, 2 LOB
New York 2, St. Louis 0
TOP 5th:
-The ol' behind-the-back and Maine is starting to look like a big-leaguer.
-That pitch to Pujols was a lot like the one Pujols hit in the 1st... only better. Last week I said that Maine had to have more strikeouts than walks to win the game. Tonight: 5 K, 3 BB.
0 R, 0 H, 0 E, 0 LOB
New York 2, St. Louis 0
BOTTOM 5th:
-Chad Bradford was warming up in the pen at the end of that last inning. In 13 1/3 career postseason innings pitched, Bradford has never allowed an earned run. His rate stats: .308 OBPA and 1.05 WHIP.
-Met fans will get mad at me for this, but Reyes is having a Derek Jeter-type game, spraying hits all over the field.
-Not a great play by Belliard. If Eckstein catches that he has a very real chance at a double play. I should give him credit, though, for not trying to cut the lead runner after grabbing it.
0 R, 1 H, 0 E, 1 LOB
New York 2, St. Louis 0
TOP 6th:
-Maine's line: 5.1 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 5 K
Still too many walks, but you can't argue with 5 1/3 of scoreless ball. Nice job to the rookie. With Bradford coming in, look for the Mets to get out of this one. Rolen is a prime GIDP candidate.
-Bradford on the season has inherited 53 runners, and only 10 have scored. That ain't bad. Looks like he's found a niche on his third team in three years.
-And there's the GIDP. Once Carpenter leaves the game, I want to see Rolen out, Spiezio to third, and Chris Duncan in the game.
0 R, 0 H, 0 E, 0 LOB
New York 2, St. Louis 0
BOTTOM 6th:
-Carpenter is really starting to remind me of Justin Verlander, only with more hardware. If that curve is working, it is nigh unhittable. Big If.
0 R, 0 H, 0 E, 0 LOB
New York 2, St. Louis 0
TOP 7th:
-If Molina gets on here, you gotta pinch-hit with Duncan and do the double-switch. Take care of this game TONIGHT.
-Bradford's pickoff move is also submarine! I never noticed that.
-I might still put Duncan in. The Cardinals' bullpen is good.
-I am a cot-damn genius. Here comes Feliciano. This series: 4.2 IP, 1.93 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, .222 OBPA. Duncan is OPSing a cool .593 against lefties this year, without that HR last night of course.
-WHAT?! Okay, the homer last night, sure, but you are looking at a difference of .600 in OPS! This is dumb. Get Feliciano out there.
-This NLCS crew should be censured. The strike zones are terrible.
-Still dumb, GIDP notwithstanding.
0 R, 1 H, 0 E, 0 LOB
New York 2, St. Louis 0
BOTTOM 7th:
-Randolph's handling of the pitching staff is actually quite good. The Mets lead the NL (in a tie with Houston) in shutouts this season; only three of those came on complete games.
-So how do people like Luis Gonzalez, Al Leiter, Vernon Wells, Eric Byrnes, or even Bret Boone get these gigs when their teams are out? Are they selected? Or is there actually an application process, and these guys are legitimately interested?
-I can't BELIEVE LaRussa didn't double switch. Get Rolen out of the damn game, Duncan will be much, much more useful.
-Braden Looper lives for this.
-Prospectus is right. It is really unbelievable that Lastings Milledge is not on this postseason roster.
-Spiezio, 2006: 4 FRAR Duncan, 2006: 6 FRAR
Not a big difference, but who knows about that catch....?
Of course, most will argue that Rolen's sparkling glove should be in at third. I'll bet more of the Mets' lineup will spray opposite field shots to LF than rockets to third.
-Molina usually gets that one. Sometimes I don't know about the pitch-out on a steal, it seems to upset the rhythm of a catcher used to throwing people out from the squat, or at least having to get out of it. But it works more often than not.
-I also don't know about the fake-to-third-look-to-first move. What does it accomplish? If you do mess someone up, and you put it in play, you are risking a run no matter what. That is more likely to fall in the runners' favor than the fielders'.
-Lo Duca comes up huge. That Reyes steal just makes things worse. And there's really nothing a catcher can do about it (even if the middle infielders are covering). I always thought on that play that catcher should make a convincing fake throw to second and see if he can catch the runner off third.
-Braden Looper does not live for this.
2 R, 3 H, 1 E, 2 LOB
New York 4, St. Louis 0
TOP 8th:
-Uh oh, here comes another HP Player Personality! And no, Joe Buck, we don't all remember when Scott Spiezio was on "She Spies". I certainly don't.
-So much for Heilman being a candidate to start tomorrow. I don't think it was such a bad idea, myself.
0 R, 1 H, 0 E, 1 LOB
New York 4, St. Louis 0
BOTTOM 8th:
-Thank you, Tim McCarver, for expressing the opinion that Tyler Johnson was not throwing at Shawn Green. I'm sure if he wanted to send a message to Green, the top of the 8th in game six of the NLCS is not when he would have done it.
-Valentin has left four runners on base today. So has Scott Rolen.
-Thank you, Tim McCarver, for being one of the first people I've ever heard use the word "bevy" without the word "veritable" in front of it.
-I think there's at least a small part of every baseball fan that wants to see Julio Franco do well. How do you not root for a 48-year-old? Unless you're a Mets fan, I mean.
0 R, 0 H, 0 E, 1 LOB
New York 4, St. Louis 0
TOP 9th:
-I don't have any baseball-related commentary left in me. All I can think of is Billy Wagner looks like a turtle.
-Oops, that gives me something. After my last LiveBlog, I stated that Wagner's next outing would be a quality one. Please don't prove me wrong. and WHY IS SCOTT ROLEN STILL PLAYING AAAAAAAAAAAAAAA.
-Sorry about that. Everyone is proving me wrong tonight. Wagner is hanging more shit than a framer.
-Sorry about that.
-So... Taguchi? Randolph made the Mota move based on one recent performance... will LaRussa's pay off?
-WOW Gary Darling. You are a veteran. Can't pull that shit.
-There it is for Taguchi. Clutch player of the decade?
-McCarver is actually right here. Why slider after slider? Something must be up with the fastball, they are setting it up way too much.
-All the pluckiness in the world couldn't save Eckstein on that one.
2 R, 3 H, 0 E, 1 LOB
FINAL: New York 4, St. Louis 2
A seven-game series is the only true justice in the baseball postseason. So much luck comes into play either way, but at least when you get a bigger sample size, you feel less cheated.
The biggest decision is obviously on Willie Randolph for tomorrow evening. He has two choices for starting pitcher:
I mean, is there even a decision to make here? Kevin Kennedy seemed to think that not having started in a couple years will shake Oliver's confidence, and also that he is more valuable coming out of the pen than Perez. I definitely agree with the second point, but I also believe that Randolph giving him the ball will do wonders for his confidence. Perez can be dominant, but he is a veritable heart monitor, and you never know what you're going to get. In game seven, go with the guy that's given you quality innings all year. Go with Oliver. If he gets in trouble, get a couple innings out of Glavine until you get to your excellent bullpen. This should be Randolph's game plan.
The Cardinals will have Jeff Suppan throwing, who pitched eight shutout innings against New York in game three. This was a stark contrast to his start against the Mets on May 16, when he gave up four earned over 6 2/3. He also had a shaky start against San Diego in the LDS, giving up six hits and three earned over 4 1/3. I am inclined to believe that the Mets will be energized by tonight's win, and won't fall victim to Suppan in game seven.
My prediction: New York 7, St. Louis 3. Of course, what I think will happen is that Oliver Perez will start, because I don't trust Randolph. But I think it will just be a matter of where those three runs come from. In my experience, a team that doesn't close out a clinching game six on the road is a team that has made a big mistake. Combine that with the fact that New York is a better baseball team and St. Louis shouldn't have even made the playoffs, and I place my money on the Mets.
"I'm very independent, and I need my own time, so I can't have somebody really clingy."
and, later:
"The guys give me a hard time about how the girls are all like, 10, 11, 12 years old. Women show me pictures of their daughters and granddaughters."
-David Wright
Well gee, David, it sounds like you've found the perfect situation. During the baseball season you'll be independent with a game every day and road trips every two weeks, and during the offseason you'll still have your independence from 9-3 when your girlfriend is busy with the fifth grade.
"How long is Jim Hendry going to be there? What if Jim Hendry goes and they bring in some 26-year-old guy with a computer who says, 'We don't need a manager. I can run the club and see what happens.'"
-Bruce Bochy's agent Mark Attanasio
Look at the product the Cubs have put on the field. Now look at their $94.5 million payroll. My money says that Bochy would be just as frustrated with Hendry as he would with any "26-year-old guy with a computer." Could computers have told Hendry that Juan Pierre was not worth the money, or that Dusty Baker was destroying Mark Prior's arm?
--
"They need guys like Paul O'Neill, like Joe Girardi, like me."
-Jim Leyritz
Paul O'Neill, career: .288/.363/.470 Joe Girardi, career: .267/.315/.350 Jim Leyritz, career: .264/.362/.415 2006 New York Yankees: .285/.363/.461
So, what you meant was, the Yankees could probably use Paul O'Neill. Also, if they had Joe Girardi, there would be absolutely no use for you.
Your postseason OBP was .319, but you slugged .607. So if Torre could figure out which one or two at bats every three games you'd be useful for then yeah, you might have been something less than dead weight.
Oakland A's manager Ken Macha was relieved of his duties by general manager Billy Beane today, wrapping up an eight-year tenure on the staff. He compiled a 368-280 record in four years at the helm of one of the American League's most consistently successful teams. Macha's first job as a manager was impressive; the team's worst finish came last season at 88-74, good for 2nd in the AL West, and their trip to the 2006 ALCS was the organization's first since 1992.
The opening in Oakland will be viewed somewhat warily by potential candidates. Since 2000, The A's have compiled 664 victories and qualified for the playoffs four times, second only in the AL to the Yankees in both categories. They have also fallen in the bottom 50% of major league payrolls each of those years. The potential for success for any manager that takes the job is great; the 2007 team should look a lot like the 2006 team, apart from the likely absence of staff ace Barry Zito. However, many feel the team is under the control of Beane, not the manager, and that whoever takes the job will be restricted to carrying out orders from above. This is a bit overblown; while Beane is a notorious control freak, his commitment to winning is very real, and he knows good baseball when he sees it. That said, his definition of good baseball changes every year in order to squeeze as many outs as possible out of his dollars, and this can create friction between him and managers that are set in their ways.
No one has been mentioned as a possible successor to Macha; the only name that jumps out at me would be third-base coach Ron Washington, who is currently being courted by many teams with open managerial positions. Oakland has a reputation as being a great atmosphere on the field and off, and if it's Beane's fancy, it might not take much to lure Washington back.
Another name that may come up if Oakland's trend of soft-spoken skippers is to continue (Tony LaRussa, Art Howe, Macha) is Buck Showalter, recently fired from the Texas Rangers. Showalter has been the victim of some bad timing; he had two jobs before Texas, and was fired from both the year before his respective teams went on to win the World Series (New York in 1995 and Arizona in 2000). He did manage each of those teams to a first-place finish (including the strike-shortened season of 1994), and he has won two Manager of the Year awards (1994 and 2004). As an added bonus, Showalter was voted the most popular manager in baseball earlier this year by the MLBPA.
Showalter's laid-back style would be a great fit in Oakland; his youth (he'll turn 51 in May) and short, unsuccessful playing career are two more indications that he would mesh with Beane's progressive philosophy. Whatever happens, the Athletics are always one of the most interesting teams to follow in baseball, and the announcement will be a big deal in the AL West.
--
In other news out of baseball today, the Chicago Cubs are expected to hold a press conference Tuesday naming Lou Piniella as manager. Piniella's fast style of play should be a good match for Chicago, but he also likes to win. The Cubs had the seventh-highest payroll in the majors this year and finished dead last in the NL. Piniella says he feels "refreshed" after two years off after a disastrous managing tenure in Tampa, with bad blood on both sides. It's easy to imagine that happening again with the Cubs and GM Jim Hendry, but Chicago has what Tampa didn't: loyal fans that will always come out to see baseball. Any player will tell you that there is nothing worse for morale than playing for empty seats, and that's a scourge Sweet Lou won't have to deal with on the north side. Another thing that irks Piniella is having to teach the mental aspect of the game to more than one or two players. This will also likely not be a big problem in Chicago, which is young but not inexperienced.
--
Remaining manager positions open:
San Francisco Oakland Texas Washington
Prediction/conjecture: If St. Louis falls to the Mets in the NLCS this week, look for Tony LaRussa to be on the hot seat. His very distinct style is wearing out its welcome in championship-starved St. Louis; the Cardinals have been playing in October six of the past seven years, only advancing to the World Series in 2004 where they were swept by the Boston Red Sox. Another failure may be enough for LaRussa's ouster. They might want to look into starting pitching, but, you know, that's too hard. LaRussa, one of the most respected managers in the game and a prominent subject of George Will's seminal book Men at Work, should have no trouble finding another job.
--
Game five of the NLCS has been officially postponed due to rain. There won't be a LiveBlog tomorrow night, but it's a possibility for game six on Wednesday. Enjoy the four hours of FOX reruns.
As we enter the 2006-07 offseason, I have one piece of advice for the Yankees' general manager: don't, don't, DON'T fall back on your old plan of hiring old Yankees, thinking they've all got some magic fairy dust that will lead New York back to the World Series (or at least a seven-gamer).
Not sure what I mean?
Here are some Yankees that played during their primes in the nineties and came back withered under Cashman's request in the 2000s, God knows why:
Tino Martinez David Wells Ramiro Mendoza Mike Stanton Jeff Nelson Luis Sojo Shane Spencer (never made team 2nd time) Ruben Sierra Miguel Cairo* Orlando Hernandez Karim Garcia* Sterling Hitchcock Gerald Williams Dwight Gooden Luis Polonia Roberto Kelly Jim Leyritz Al Leiter** Lee Mazzilli***
*first stint was also in 2000s. **first stint was prior to 1994. ***just kidding.
Granted, Wells is an ageless wonder, and a lot of the guys towards the end did play in a Series winning year. But Cashman, buy some damn binoculars and take a look outside your video room that's stocked with film from the glory years. Be creative! Don't trade Alex Rodriguez!
FOX Fires Lyons for Racial Remark (or: Y-I-K-E-S, Steve Lyons)
Steve "Psycho" Lyonswas fired after Friday's game for making racially insensitive comments about hispanics. According to ESPN.com:
[Lou] Piniella had made an analogy involving the luck of finding a wallet, then briefly used a couple of Spanish phrases during Friday's broadcast.
Lyons said that Piniella was "hablaing Espanol" -- butchering the conjugation for the word "to speak" -- and added, "I still can't find my wallet."
"I don't understand him, and I don't want to sit too close to him now," Lyons continued.
Now at first I must say I thought this was overreactive on the part of FOX. But the more I look at those comments, the more I realize that they are things that a human with a normal brain-to-mouth filter would never say on the air. This goes way beyond the World Baseball Classic announcers continually referring to the Cuban team as "fiery" and the Japanese team as "calculating". It's one thing (still wrong) to make light of personality traits associated with race; it's a very different thing to make a stolen wallet joke on network television.
And, what a surprise, this is of course not Lyons' first offense. In 2004, after noted jewish ballpayer Shawn Green sat out an important game down the stretch against the Giants, Lyons had this to offer, again on the air:
[Green is] not a practicing Jew. He didn’t marry a Jewish girl. And from what I understand, he never had a bar mitzvah, which is unfortunate because he didn’t get the money.
And of course who could forget the nearly blind fan at Shea Stadium for the NLDS, whose vision-assisting device was mocked on air by Lyons and broadcast partner Thom Brenneman. According to the New York Times:
What was he wearing, they wondered?
“A Psycho-meter,” Brennaman said, to welcome Lyons to town.
“Maybe he’s in virtual reality,” Lyons said. If he is, Lyons explained, “he should stay there.”
And maybe, Lyons suggested, the Dodgers should don the contraptions to better hit Tom Glavine. Lyons then hit on the most logical puerile explanation: “He’s got a digital camera stuck to his face.”
Los Angeles Angels announcer Jose Mota was called upon to replace Lyons for the remainder of the series.
Before signing off, I'd like to offer two more criticisms, this time on how the media presented the Lyons debacle. In the AP article linked above, Lyons' many on-air goofs are punctuated with this final statement before moving on to his playing stats: "He also once pulled his pants down on the field during his playing days." Lyons undid his pants to brush dirt off after a slide. They make it sound like he whipped it out at the stands. He quickly realized where he was and pulled them back up.
Before Lyons' most recent remarks happened, there was a very good article in the Times about (ironically) the lackluster performance of Lyons and Brenneman in the booth. It is soured, however, by this ridiculous last section:
Lyons...has mastered the art of the absolute statement but falters at factual precision. Alex Rodriguez had an “unbelievable” season, he said, but he clearly did not. Derek Jeter had his best year, he said, but his numbers were better in 1999.
As the Yankees succumbed to Detroit’s Jeremy Bonderman on Saturday, Lyons ignored mounting evidence that the Yankees’ potency was more the stuff of fantasy baseball than of postseason reality, to say they comprised “arguably the best offensive lineup that’s ever been produced.”
Alex Rodriguez did not have an "unbelievable" season, but he had a very good one. Whether this or 1999 was Jeter's best year is completely arguable, and I would say that this one trumps it, although I believe I am looking at different numbers than the Times. Anyone who didn't think the Yankees' lineup entering this season was the best in history was fooling themselves. It is complete hindsight editorializing for the Times to call it "more the stuff of fantasy baseball than of postseason reality." I would love to know who would be in Murray Chass' ideal lineup. This season the Yankees outscored everyone in the league by a large, large margin, without the Matsui and Sheffield bats they were to have in the postseason. It would be tough to argue that the Yankees' lineup, one to nine, wasn't the best ever. Perhaps three games of slump are too few to judge nine players' potential performance on.
The point is that these are not comments a broadcaster should be chided for making, when announcers everywhere make stupider statements every day. Has the Times ever seen Baseball Tonight? It's the only sports show on television where the anchor is a lot better at analyzing than the analysts.
Enough ranting. Farewell, Psycho. You won't be missed.
’’Hey, the game of baseball is not rocket-science stuff. As a manager, you let the players play and you keep percentages on your side as much as possible.’’
-Lou Piniella, leading candidate to become manager of the Chicago Cubs.
And the damndest thing about it is... he's right. If more managers could get a feel for what percentages really mattered, well... then they'd be better managers.
Same deal as last time, but completely DH-free, for your convenience. Keep checking back for updates.
TOP 1st:
-Remember last night when Eckstein walked late in the game, and sprinted down the line? I'm all for hustle, but that really annoys me. You're not special because you run after a walk. I appreciate that you run out grounders, but when you run on a walk, you look like a douche.
0 R, 0 H, 0 E, 0 LOB
New York 0, St. Louis 0
BOTTOM 1st:
-After Reyes' hits a nice double off of Carpenter, I am reminded of an "ESPN The Magazine" cover that referred to Reyes as "the best shortstop in New York". I can't begin to foam at the mouth about how wrong that is, but this is statistically accurate:
Jose Reyes, Postseason 2006: .125/.222/.125 1 SB, 1 CS 0 XBH (until just now)
Look, I like Jose Reyes. And I know postseason is a pitiful sample size. But the regular season stats don't stand in his favor. This isn't so much a Reyes vs. Jeter argument as a "Everybody calm the hell down about Jose Reyes, and yes I'm even talking to you Peter Gammons" kind of argument.
-McCarver: "Reyes hydrofoils around 1st base."
According to the American Heritage Dictionary:
hy·dro·foil (hdr-foil) n.
A winglike structure attached to the hull of a boat that raises all or part of the hull out of the water when the boat is moving forward, thus reducing drag.
A boat equipped with hydrofoils. Also called hydroplane.
There is no verb definition.
-Although the sight of a good hitter bunting makes me throw up a little in my mouth, runner on second with no outs is actually an ideal situation to sacrifice. According to studies done by Prospectus, put into layman's terms by me, a runner on second with one out increases your team's chances only a little over 1st with no outs. A runner on third with one out increases your chances much more over 2nd with no outs.
-That home run proves that I am right, and Webb, not Carpenter, should be the Cy Young winner.
-That last bullet was a joke.
-Great slide by Wright. A little reassurance that umpires actually do watch the play and don't just go with what should have happened.
3 R, 2 H, 0 E, 1 LOB
New York 3, St. Louis 0
I'm going to take this opportunity to Bitch Like Hell about Thom Brenneman. The last two innings or so of Kenny Rogers' *amazing* start this afternoon were spent just fawning over his "resolve" and "eyes" and "readiness", not to mention that Brenneman spent a couple minutes talking about how Rogers spent 10 minutes (this is what he said) shaking hands with and apologizing to the cameraman he slugged last year. Do you think any of this would have come up if Rogers got lit up? I'm not saying that FOX is biased towards the Tigers, I just think they are pure frontrunners, adding romanticization to whoever is winning to increase the "story" potential and therefore ratings. Keep watching, and see if you notice. They will always lick the balls of whoever is out in front.
TOP 2nd:
-That's gotta be an error. Delgado got there and pulled up before the ball even arrived. He just muffed it.
-Bad pitch leads to good hit by Molina. Those signs that say "Glavine and Maine and pray for rain" are half-right.
-Buck: "The one guy who would be in the category of long reliever is Darren Oliver." Don't forget Oliver Perez, Joe. There's a PERFECT long relief guy.
-Beautifully placed fastball by Maine to get Carp.
2 R, 1 H, 1 E, 2 LOB
New York 3, St. Louis 2
BOTTOM 2nd:
-So FOX has a split screen comparing Reyes at stealing to Molina at throwing runners out. They use percentage of runners caught for Molina, and total number of steals for Reyes. That, folks, is classic data manipulation. In fact, that's not even as clever as classic data manipulation. That's just unhelpful.
-Couldn't see from the cameras, but my money says that LoDuca has a chance to beat that throw if he's runnin'.
1 R, 2 H, 0 E, 1 LOB
New York 4, St. Louis 2
TOP 3rd:
-Chris Duncan, 2006:
.293/.363/.589 25.3 VORP .307 EqA 4.3 WARP3
That's, uh, really good. I had no idea he was having this kind of season. Color me misinformed about the league's worst divison. (Except the Pirates, thanks to Charlie.)
-I'm not going to pick apart whatever Gonzo was just talking about, but A HOME RUN IS THE BEST POSSIBLE THING AN OFFENSE CAN PRODUCE AT ANY TIME AND IS THEREFORE THE WORST THING TO HAPPEN TO THE DEFENSE.
-Big bad inning from Maine. Get your bullpen in there Willie, you can get still get out of New York with two if you're lucky.
2 R, 1 H, 0 E, 1 LOB
St. Louis 4, New York 4
BOTTOM 3rd:
-It's halfway through three, and 9:10 PM. Odiously unmanagable.
-McCarver praising the Cardinals for their patience with Carpenter. They signed him before 2003, knowing he wouldn't pitch. He had a decent '04, and then won the damn Cy Young award. Why, they oughtta change their names to the Saints!
0 R, 0 H, 0 E, 2 LOB
St. Louis 4, New York 4
TOP 4th:
-You wanna see a weird line? Here's Carpenter's hitting stats for 2005:
5-for-77, 5 H, 5 BB, 7 R
Isn't that weird?
-Eckstein does it again. I HATE THAT STUPID SPRINT. If I were David Eckstein, I would want to put more effort towards not looking like a 12-year-old.
-Good stolen base by the aforementioned. How many articles will we see tomorrow about Eckstein and the little things and speed and pluckiness? I wish LaRussa would think of the fans when he made these decisions. Regardless, the Cardinals have a big chance here with Duncan up and Pujols on deck.
-Never mind.
0 R, 0 H, 1 E, 1 LOB
St. Louis 4, New York 4
BOTTOM 4th:
-Belliard with the one-timer. You can't turn a double-play better than that; that's where Reyes' speed is very very helpful. Belliard, with -7 FRAA on the season, is no star on the field, but that was a nice play.
0 R, 0 H, 0 E, 1 LOB
St. Louis 4, New York 4
TOP 5th:
-I don't like to "toot my own horn" (he's lying), but two posts ago I wrote this:
Look for Maine to get feasted upon. His strikeouts will likely be more than made up for by his walks, and the Cardinals will take advantage.
-Big inning here for Carpenter: Beltran, Delgado, Wright.
-Carpenter's still got some tail on his two-seamer.
-Carlos Delgado to Chris Carpenter: Good night, and good luck. Where does Delgado stand on multi-HR games? I read earlier today that his 100th, 200th, 300th, and 400th home runs all came in multi-HR games.
-Questionable call on Belliard's muff... here's the replay... oh wait that's a Delgado replay. Another replay, that doesn't even show the ball entering Pujols' mitt, and Buck says "Wright was safe." See above.
-Two bad starts, three home runs, three errors... this game is officially a shoot-out.
-Both of Delgado's home run swings tonight have been without a real leg-kick or a real shift of weight to his front foot, and both went to the opposite field. Those are some strong Puerto Rican arms. Only 4 of Delgado's 17 home runs at Shea this season went to left.
1 R, 2 H, 1 E, 2 LOB
New York 5, St. Louis 4
TOP 6th:
-The pitcher with the highest 2006 VORP that is also named "Pedro" is up in the pen for New York.... don't get excited, Martinez fans...
-I gotta imagine that when a batter argues a strike call on a Bradford pitch, the ump is thinking "Buddy, I'm tryin' just as hard as you."
0 R, 1 H, 0 E, 1 LOB
New York 5, St. Louis 4
BOTTOM 6th:
-Anderson Hernandez, career OBP: .151 Pedro Feliciano, career OBP: .143 Guillermo Mota, career OBP: .212
Why waste a bench player? Bring in Mota to pinch-hit for Feliciano, leave him in to pitch! (This is also manipulation of data, but at least it's funny.)
-Mets: 78-4 when leading after six. Y-I-K-E-S.
-A lot of this stuff isn't as interesting after the inning is finished, so I'll publish more often.
-Great hit on a pitch that had a lot of break on it. Lo Duca saw it all the way, and Reyes, of course, is a lock.
-Josh Hancock goes all "Paul O'Neill" on that water cooler. I love intensity, but that is just not helpful. It makes your teammates feel awkward.
-WHAT a play by Belliard. Buck says that St. Louis "knew Belliard was a good second baseman." You saw his FRAA; I'll bet he made that up. Two great plays tonight, though.
1 R, 1 H, 0 E, 1 LOB
New York 6, St. Louis 4
TOP 7th:
-Pujols' struggles against the Mets aren't a huge surprise, his .836 OPS against them this year was his third-lowest against an NL team. He is, however, OPSing 1.231 at Shea this year, and is two-for-five with one double against Mota in his career.
-Make that three-for-six.
-I have been dragged kicking and screaming into the idea of replay in baseball. I think the conferences take a big step towards remedying some of the problems, but they're obviously not perfect. I feel that in plays where the announces slow it down to 1/10th the speed and they're debating, then replay is not needed, any play that close can go either way. I wouldn't be opposed to video replay on home runs, but how would we do that? Can any of you at home tell most of the time what the true call is? It's real tough unless you're next to the pole.
-McCarver questions the pitch-selection on the triple, and I agree with him. Spezio has been hot, and giving him an 0-2 pitch to smoke is pretty inexcusable.
2 R, 2 H, 0 E, 1 LOB
St. Louis 6, New York 6
BOTTOM 7th:
-The Mets have used five pitchers tonight, with at least two innings left to throw. Granted, two of those pitchers threw less than five pitches, but there are three games in a row left to play, with two very questionable starters starting those games. This does not bode well for Willie n' Rick.
-Back to the discussion of the 0-2 fastball to Spezio. A popular myth is that it is easier to hit a long ball off a faster pitch than a slower one, due to the elasticity and rebound of the ball. This is simply not true. The slower the pitch, the easier to hit it hard, because the bat must first decelerate the ball's velocity to zero before even putting it forward. This translates to a lot less work on a slow pitch.
HOWEVER, this is not necessarily true in baseball for the following reason: the default setting for a hitter is to be sitting fastball. A change-up throws off that timing, causing the hitter to re-think his action, and that affects his bat-speed. Bat-speed is the key to home runs; the faster the bat, the farther the ball will go.
So, pick your poison. Judging from how Spezio looked on those changeups, I think a change-up away from the middle of the plate would have been just what the doctor ordered.
0 R, 1 H, 0 E, 1 LOB
St. Louis 6, New York 6
TOP 8th:
-Holy crap. Joe Buck crafted an able and useful response to some idiocy by McCarver, who stated that LaRussa should pinch-run for Molina. Good work, Joe. You still stuck at announcing baseball. Ever notice how Joe Buck just doesn't say anything at huge points in the game? He's not good at translating emotion to the fans. This probably has something to do with him being a better football announcer, but I don't know what.
-Gooood pitch by Heilman. Few things in baseball are as beautiful as a knee-buckling change-up. Few things are as ugly as the Mets hockey-style jersey they just showed in the stands.
-Aaarrrrggghhh. Now I know how FJM feels. McCarver, on Eckstein: "When swinging, he makes contact on 93% of pitches thrown to him." How many of those are groundballs? How many go backwards? Why does everyone focus on the positives of this guy and shift focus away from the many many negatives? It's hard to strike him out. Great. Luckily, it's not hard to get him out, via a myriad of other possibilities. His OBP is .350. That's not bad, and not great. It's pretty average. So calm down, everybody.
-Oh, Gonzo is still in the booth. He chimes in once every three innings or so.
-Holy Heilman, where the hell was that one? Fine, Eckstein makes pitchers work. I still think Heilman has done a lot more work than he needs to.
0 R, 1 H, 0 E, 1 LOB
St. Louis 6, New York 6
BOTTOM 8th:
-So... Taguchi?
-Gonzo brings nothing to this broadcast. Maybe they should have gotten a player more than three years younger than McCarver.
-It's time to stop pulling out Beltran's five home runs in NLCS play. Four of those were in one NLCS, it's not like he's pre-disposed to the format. It's like bizarro Alex Rodriguez.
-When I was studying music in high school, I figured out that if I didn't know what an instrument that I heard was, it was probably a trombone. I now think that if I don't know what a pitch is, it's probably a two-seam fastball.
0 R, 1 H, 0 E, 0 LOB
St. Louis 6, New York 6
TOP 9th:
-Bringing Taguchi in looks stupid now. How much better a fielder is he than Duncan?
Taguchi 2006 FRAA: 2 Duncan 2006 FRAA: 2
How much better a hitter is Duncan?
Taguchi 2006 EqA: .246 Duncan 2006 EqA: .307
Now, of course, literally, as I typed that, Taguchi went deep. That doesn't mean it wasn't still a bad decision. I don't buy into that Jim-Leyland-everything-turns-to-gold crap. Now, Duncan has a miserable .536 OPS against lefties, whereas Taguchi is OPSing .726 against them. That's not a huge difference considering Duncan hits left and Taguchi hits right. Stack all this up with the fact that Taguchi and Duncan are comparable in the field....I wouldn't have done it. But like I said, it sure as hell worked out for Tony. I have to give him credit for knowing Taguchi would face Wagner in the first at-bat of the inning, even though that's the reason I would have kept Duncan in.
-Bad time for Wagner to have one of his nights... the home run by Taguchi was the warning sign, but doubles by Pujols and Spiezio (right now) aren't an indication of a bad pitcher. Then Encarnacion gets the RBI annnnnnd you're pretty sure Wagner is having one of his nights.
-Last night I think they said something about Wagner not blowing a save against St. Louis since 1998. Yeesh. Annnnnnd you're done. Oh shit, they boo the hell out of him. I don't know about that. Don't cry Mets fans, it was Carpenter vs. Maine, and you entered the ninth tied. That's something.
-Fuckin' great play by Wright to fake Encarnacion out, and then an airtight rundown by the Mets. Good fundamentals.
-Judging from the reaction on the Cardinal bench, I'm guessing they weren't expecting the Taguchi shot any more than anyone else.
3 R, 4 H, 0 E, 1 LOB
St. Louis 9, New York 6
BOTTOM 9th:
-Buck compliments the turnaround of the St. Louis bullpen. Addition by subtraction, perhaps?
-Is that it?
0 R, 0 H, 0 E, 0 LOB
Final: St. Louis 9, New York 6
Series tied, 1-1
Earlier I wrote that if the Mets come out of the first four games at 2-2, they should be content with that. They split at home, getting the win they needed out of Glavine, and losing the game I thought they would against Carpenter, even though Carpenter ended up not being effective. New York's lineup is and remains more potent than St. Louis', but is it potent enough to make up for:
Suppan vs. Trachsel Reyes vs. Perez
Are you all ready for that?! Anthony Reyes vs. Oliver Perez in NLCS Game four?! I don't think you're ready.
One good thing for the Mets: Don't count on Billy Wagner pitching like that again. That was the first loss he's taken since August 1; the second since June 21. It was the first time he's given up more than two runs since May 20 against the Yankees. He's been a closer for a long time, and he'll bounce back from that.
13 pitchers were used between the two teams tonight; 10 threw fewer than 30 pitches. The teams' bullpens have been comparably effective, and are comparably fatigued. The starting pitching falls in the favor of St. Louis, the lineup in the favor of New York. The way it works is like this: New York's lineup needs to bust their ass to get a win out of either Trachsel or Perez. St. Louis has the luxury of not being so co-dependent.
This is a pretty evenly-matched series, although neither team looks like they could tame the Tigers right now. Whoever wins better hope they do it quick; a very rested Tiger team that is playing as well as it's played all season is just around the corner. (Maybe.)
dr
-foil
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