The Ol' Ballfield

LiveBlogging the NLCS, Game 2

Same deal as last time, but completely DH-free, for your convenience. Keep checking back for updates.

TOP 1st:

-Remember last night when Eckstein walked late in the game, and sprinted down the line? I'm all for hustle, but that really annoys me. You're not special because you run after a walk. I appreciate that you run out grounders, but when you run on a walk, you look like a douche.

0 R, 0 H, 0 E, 0 LOB

New York 0, St. Louis 0

BOTTOM 1st:

-After Reyes' hits a nice double off of Carpenter, I am reminded of an "ESPN The Magazine" cover that referred to Reyes as "the best shortstop in New York". I can't begin to foam at the mouth about how wrong that is, but this is statistically accurate:

Jose Reyes, Postseason 2006:
.125/.222/.125
1 SB, 1 CS
0 XBH (until just now)

Look, I like Jose Reyes. And I know postseason is a pitiful sample size. But the regular season stats don't stand in his favor. This isn't so much a Reyes vs. Jeter argument as a "Everybody calm the hell down about Jose Reyes, and yes I'm even talking to you Peter Gammons" kind of argument.

-McCarver: "Reyes hydrofoils around 1st base."

According to the American Heritage Dictionary:

hy·dro·foil (hdr-foil)
n.

1. A winglike structure attached to the hull of a boat that raises all or part of the hull out of the water when the boat is moving forward, thus reducing drag.
2. A boat equipped with hydrofoils. Also called hydroplane.

There is no verb definition.

-Although the sight of a good hitter bunting makes me throw up a little in my mouth, runner on second with no outs is actually an ideal situation to sacrifice. According to studies done by Prospectus, put into layman's terms by me, a runner on second with one out increases your team's chances only a little over 1st with no outs. A runner on third with one out increases your chances much more over 2nd with no outs.

-That home run proves that I am right, and Webb, not Carpenter, should be the Cy Young winner.

-That last bullet was a joke.

-Great slide by Wright. A little reassurance that umpires actually do watch the play and don't just go with what should have happened.

3 R, 2 H, 0 E, 1 LOB

New York 3, St. Louis 0

I'm going to take this opportunity to Bitch Like Hell about Thom Brenneman. The last two innings or so of Kenny Rogers' *amazing* start this afternoon were spent just fawning over his "resolve" and "eyes" and "readiness", not to mention that Brenneman spent a couple minutes talking about how Rogers spent 10 minutes (this is what he said) shaking hands with and apologizing to the cameraman he slugged last year. Do you think any of this would have come up if Rogers got lit up? I'm not saying that FOX is biased towards the Tigers, I just think they are pure frontrunners, adding romanticization to whoever is winning to increase the "story" potential and therefore ratings. Keep watching, and see if you notice. They will always lick the balls of whoever is out in front.

TOP 2nd:

-That's gotta be an error. Delgado got there and pulled up before the ball even arrived. He just muffed it.

-Bad pitch leads to good hit by Molina. Those signs that say "Glavine and Maine and pray for rain" are half-right.

-Buck: "The one guy who would be in the category of long reliever is Darren Oliver." Don't forget Oliver Perez, Joe. There's a PERFECT long relief guy.

-Beautifully placed fastball by Maine to get Carp.

2 R, 1 H, 1 E, 2 LOB

New York 3, St. Louis 2

BOTTOM 2nd:

-So FOX has a split screen comparing Reyes at stealing to Molina at throwing runners out. They use percentage of runners caught for Molina, and total number of steals for Reyes. That, folks, is classic data manipulation. In fact, that's not even as clever as classic data manipulation. That's just unhelpful.

-Couldn't see from the cameras, but my money says that LoDuca has a chance to beat that throw if he's runnin'.

1 R, 2 H, 0 E, 1 LOB

New York 4, St. Louis 2

TOP 3rd:

-Chris Duncan, 2006:

.293/.363/.589
25.3 VORP
.307 EqA
4.3 WARP3

That's, uh, really good. I had no idea he was having this kind of season. Color me misinformed about the league's worst divison. (Except the Pirates, thanks to Charlie.)

-I'm not going to pick apart whatever Gonzo was just talking about, but A HOME RUN IS THE BEST POSSIBLE THING AN OFFENSE CAN PRODUCE AT ANY TIME AND IS THEREFORE THE WORST THING TO HAPPEN TO THE DEFENSE.

-Big bad inning from Maine. Get your bullpen in there Willie, you can get still get out of New York with two if you're lucky.

2 R, 1 H, 0 E, 1 LOB

St. Louis 4, New York 4

BOTTOM 3rd:

-It's halfway through three, and 9:10 PM. Odiously unmanagable.

-McCarver praising the Cardinals for their patience with Carpenter. They signed him before 2003, knowing he wouldn't pitch. He had a decent '04, and then won the damn Cy Young award. Why, they oughtta change their names to the Saints!

0 R, 0 H, 0 E, 2 LOB

St. Louis 4, New York 4

TOP 4th:

-You wanna see a weird line? Here's Carpenter's hitting stats for 2005:

5-for-77, 5 H, 5 BB, 7 R

Isn't that weird?

-Eckstein does it again. I HATE THAT STUPID SPRINT. If I were David Eckstein, I would want to put more effort towards not looking like a 12-year-old.

-Good stolen base by the aforementioned. How many articles will we see tomorrow about Eckstein and the little things and speed and pluckiness? I wish LaRussa would think of the fans when he made these decisions. Regardless, the Cardinals have a big chance here with Duncan up and Pujols on deck.

-Never mind.

0 R, 0 H, 1 E, 1 LOB

St. Louis 4, New York 4

BOTTOM 4th:

-Belliard with the one-timer. You can't turn a double-play better than that; that's where Reyes' speed is very very helpful. Belliard, with -7 FRAA on the season, is no star on the field, but that was a nice play.

0 R, 0 H, 0 E, 1 LOB

St. Louis 4, New York 4

TOP 5th:

-I don't like to "toot my own horn" (he's lying), but two posts ago I wrote this:

Look for Maine to get feasted upon. His strikeouts will likely be more than made up for by his walks, and the Cardinals will take advantage.

Maine's line today: 4.0 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 3 K

Toot toot!

-Bradford this year:
2.90 ERA, 45 K, 1.15 WHIP, .254 BAA, 151 ERA+ (!)

vs. STL: 3.2 IP, 7.36 ERA, 1.91 WHIP, .385 BAA

0 R, 0 H, 0 E, 0 LOB

St. Louis 4, New York 4

BOTTOM 5th:

-Big inning here for Carpenter: Beltran, Delgado, Wright.

-Carpenter's still got some tail on his two-seamer.

-Carlos Delgado to Chris Carpenter: Good night, and good luck. Where does Delgado stand on multi-HR games? I read earlier today that his 100th, 200th, 300th, and 400th home runs all came in multi-HR games.

-Questionable call on Belliard's muff... here's the replay... oh wait that's a Delgado replay. Another replay, that doesn't even show the ball entering Pujols' mitt, and Buck says "Wright was safe." See above.

-Two bad starts, three home runs, three errors... this game is officially a shoot-out.

-Both of Delgado's home run swings tonight have been without a real leg-kick or a real shift of weight to his front foot, and both went to the opposite field. Those are some strong Puerto Rican arms. Only 4 of Delgado's 17 home runs at Shea this season went to left.

1 R, 2 H, 1 E, 2 LOB

New York 5, St. Louis 4

TOP 6th:

-The pitcher with the highest 2006 VORP that is also named "Pedro" is up in the pen for New York.... don't get excited, Martinez fans...

-I gotta imagine that when a batter argues a strike call on a Bradford pitch, the ump is thinking "Buddy, I'm tryin' just as hard as you."

0 R, 1 H, 0 E, 1 LOB

New York 5, St. Louis 4

BOTTOM 6th:

-Anderson Hernandez, career OBP: .151
Pedro Feliciano, career OBP: .143
Guillermo Mota, career OBP: .212

Why waste a bench player? Bring in Mota to pinch-hit for Feliciano, leave him in to pitch! (This is also manipulation of data, but at least it's funny.)

-Mets: 78-4 when leading after six. Y-I-K-E-S.

-A lot of this stuff isn't as interesting after the inning is finished, so I'll publish more often.

-Great hit on a pitch that had a lot of break on it. Lo Duca saw it all the way, and Reyes, of course, is a lock.

-Josh Hancock goes all "Paul O'Neill" on that water cooler. I love intensity, but that is just not helpful. It makes your teammates feel awkward.

-WHAT a play by Belliard. Buck says that St. Louis "knew Belliard was a good second baseman." You saw his FRAA; I'll bet he made that up. Two great plays tonight, though.

1 R, 1 H, 0 E, 1 LOB

New York 6, St. Louis 4

TOP 7th:

-Pujols' struggles against the Mets aren't a huge surprise, his .836 OPS against them this year was his third-lowest against an NL team. He is, however, OPSing 1.231 at Shea this year, and is two-for-five with one double against Mota in his career.

-Make that three-for-six.

-I have been dragged kicking and screaming into the idea of replay in baseball. I think the conferences take a big step towards remedying some of the problems, but they're obviously not perfect. I feel that in plays where the announces slow it down to 1/10th the speed and they're debating, then replay is not needed, any play that close can go either way. I wouldn't be opposed to video replay on home runs, but how would we do that? Can any of you at home tell most of the time what the true call is? It's real tough unless you're next to the pole.

-McCarver questions the pitch-selection on the triple, and I agree with him. Spezio has been hot, and giving him an 0-2 pitch to smoke is pretty inexcusable.

2 R, 2 H, 0 E, 1 LOB

St. Louis 6, New York 6

BOTTOM 7th:

-The Mets have used five pitchers tonight, with at least two innings left to throw. Granted, two of those pitchers threw less than five pitches, but there are three games in a row left to play, with two very questionable starters starting those games. This does not bode well for Willie n' Rick.

-Back to the discussion of the 0-2 fastball to Spezio. A popular myth is that it is easier to hit a long ball off a faster pitch than a slower one, due to the elasticity and rebound of the ball. This is simply not true. The slower the pitch, the easier to hit it hard, because the bat must first decelerate the ball's velocity to zero before even putting it forward. This translates to a lot less work on a slow pitch.

HOWEVER, this is not necessarily true in baseball for the following reason: the default setting for a hitter is to be sitting fastball. A change-up throws off that timing, causing the hitter to re-think his action, and that affects his bat-speed. Bat-speed is the key to home runs; the faster the bat, the farther the ball will go.

So, pick your poison. Judging from how Spezio looked on those changeups, I think a change-up away from the middle of the plate would have been just what the doctor ordered.

0 R, 1 H, 0 E, 1 LOB

St. Louis 6, New York 6

TOP 8th:

-Holy crap. Joe Buck crafted an able and useful response to some idiocy by McCarver, who stated that LaRussa should pinch-run for Molina. Good work, Joe. You still stuck at announcing baseball. Ever notice how Joe Buck just doesn't say anything at huge points in the game? He's not good at translating emotion to the fans. This probably has something to do with him being a better football announcer, but I don't know what.

-Gooood pitch by Heilman. Few things in baseball are as beautiful as a knee-buckling change-up. Few things are as ugly as the Mets hockey-style jersey they just showed in the stands.

-Aaarrrrggghhh. Now I know how FJM feels. McCarver, on Eckstein: "When swinging, he makes contact on 93% of pitches thrown to him." How many of those are groundballs? How many go backwards? Why does everyone focus on the positives of this guy and shift focus away from the many many negatives? It's hard to strike him out. Great. Luckily, it's not hard to get him out, via a myriad of other possibilities. His OBP is .350. That's not bad, and not great. It's pretty average. So calm down, everybody.

-Oh, Gonzo is still in the booth. He chimes in once every three innings or so.

-Holy Heilman, where the hell was that one? Fine, Eckstein makes pitchers work. I still think Heilman has done a lot more work than he needs to.

0 R, 1 H, 0 E, 1 LOB

St. Louis 6, New York 6

BOTTOM 8th:

-So... Taguchi?

-Gonzo brings nothing to this broadcast. Maybe they should have gotten a player more than three years younger than McCarver.

-It's time to stop pulling out Beltran's five home runs in NLCS play. Four of those were in one NLCS, it's not like he's pre-disposed to the format. It's like bizarro Alex Rodriguez.

-When I was studying music in high school, I figured out that if I didn't know what an instrument that I heard was, it was probably a trombone. I now think that if I don't know what a pitch is, it's probably a two-seam fastball.

0 R, 1 H, 0 E, 0 LOB

St. Louis 6, New York 6

TOP 9th:

-Bringing Taguchi in looks stupid now. How much better a fielder is he than Duncan?

Taguchi 2006 FRAA: 2
Duncan 2006 FRAA: 2

How much better a hitter is Duncan?

Taguchi 2006 EqA: .246
Duncan 2006 EqA: .307

Now, of course, literally, as I typed that, Taguchi went deep. That doesn't mean it wasn't still a bad decision. I don't buy into that Jim-Leyland-everything-turns-to-gold crap. Now, Duncan has a miserable .536 OPS against lefties, whereas Taguchi is OPSing .726 against them. That's not a huge difference considering Duncan hits left and Taguchi hits right. Stack all this up with the fact that Taguchi and Duncan are comparable in the field....I wouldn't have done it. But like I said, it sure as hell worked out for Tony. I have to give him credit for knowing Taguchi would face Wagner in the first at-bat of the inning, even though that's the reason I would have kept Duncan in.

-Bad time for Wagner to have one of his nights... the home run by Taguchi was the warning sign, but doubles by Pujols and Spiezio (right now) aren't an indication of a bad pitcher. Then Encarnacion gets the RBI annnnnnd you're pretty sure Wagner is having one of his nights.

-Last night I think they said something about Wagner not blowing a save against St. Louis since 1998. Yeesh. Annnnnnd you're done. Oh shit, they boo the hell out of him. I don't know about that. Don't cry Mets fans, it was Carpenter vs. Maine, and you entered the ninth tied. That's something.

-Fuckin' great play by Wright to fake Encarnacion out, and then an airtight rundown by the Mets. Good fundamentals.

-Judging from the reaction on the Cardinal bench, I'm guessing they weren't expecting the Taguchi shot any more than anyone else.

3 R, 4 H, 0 E, 1 LOB

St. Louis 9, New York 6

BOTTOM 9th:

-Buck compliments the turnaround of the St. Louis bullpen. Addition by subtraction, perhaps?

-Is that it?

0 R, 0 H, 0 E, 0 LOB

Final: St. Louis 9, New York 6

Series tied, 1-1

Earlier I wrote that if the Mets come out of the first four games at 2-2, they should be content with that. They split at home, getting the win they needed out of Glavine, and losing the game I thought they would against Carpenter, even though Carpenter ended up not being effective. New York's lineup is and remains more potent than St. Louis', but is it potent enough to make up for:

Suppan vs. Trachsel
Reyes vs. Perez

Are you all ready for that?! Anthony Reyes vs. Oliver Perez in NLCS Game four?! I don't think you're ready.

One good thing for the Mets: Don't count on Billy Wagner pitching like that again. That was the first loss he's taken since August 1; the second since June 21. It was the first time he's given up more than two runs since May 20 against the Yankees. He's been a closer for a long time, and he'll bounce back from that.

13 pitchers were used between the two teams tonight; 10 threw fewer than 30 pitches. The teams' bullpens have been comparably effective, and are comparably fatigued. The starting pitching falls in the favor of St. Louis, the lineup in the favor of New York. The way it works is like this: New York's lineup needs to bust their ass to get a win out of either Trachsel or Perez. St. Louis has the luxury of not being so co-dependent.

This is a pretty evenly-matched series, although neither team looks like they could tame the Tigers right now. Whoever wins better hope they do it quick; a very rested Tiger team that is playing as well as it's played all season is just around the corner. (Maybe.)

posted by Carnival @ 10/13/2006