Wednesday, October 11, 2006

LiveBlogging the ALCS, Game 2

I'll be posting comments and analysis during the game every half inning or so, so keep checking for updates. Again, the baseball community is greatly saddened by the sudden death of Cory Lidle, please send your prayers to his family.

Neifi Perez is in the lineup for Detroit, as Carlos Guillen has been moved to first for an injured Sean Casey. Uh oh.

TOP 1st:

-Perez is hitting second. Second-half OBP of .248. You tell me. He strikes out looking in an awful at-bat. Why, Jim?

-Loaiza looks sharp, blows a four-seamer by Magglio Ordoñez to end the inning.

0 R, 1 H, 0 E, 1 LOB

Detroit 0, Oakland 0

BOTTOM 1st:

-Kotsay sits dead red on a Verlander heater, a misplay by Ordoñez leads to a double, he advances to third on a WP. That is a ball Pudge usually handles.

-Verlander just hit 100 for the first time against Bradley.

-Leyland takes a gamble by playing the infield in with Kotsay on third; Bradley throws the bat at the ball and gets an RBI and a hit. Half of Bradley's hits this year have been ground balls, so I don't think it was a bad decision at this point in the game. Bradley, however, was 2-for-4 this season against Verlander. Are these things that Leyland pays attention to?

-Verlander balks. I love balks.

-Another 100 heater. Now 101, but nowhere near the zone.

-Okay, a general thought on Verlander. I, personally, don't give a flip about a triple-digit fastball. I mean, FOX's little flame graphic is cool, but other than that, I don't think it should be a pitch to fall back on. The A's hitters can hit a damn fastball. Verlander needs to make smart pitches like he did to Thomas; he threw different speeds all over the zone, and Thomas didn't know what was coming. Compare that to the Kotsay at bat where he didn't throw one pitch out of the strike zone, all fastballs. Kotsay's NOT going to get a hit in that at-bat? Pudge needs to take control in this game.

1 R, 2 H, 0 E, 1 LOB

Oakland 1, Detroit 0

TOP 2nd:

1 R, 0 H, 0 E, 0 LOB

Oakland 1, Detroit 1

BOTTOM 2nd:

-I hate FOX.

-A nasty curveball to get Swisher; best one from Verlander all game. Same thing to get Scutaro. Again, If I'm Oakland, I'm a lot more afraid of Uncle Charlie than the big 1-0-0 from Verlander.

0 R, 0 H, 0 E, 0 LOB

Oakland 1, Detroit 1

TOP 3rd:

-Before the game, Lou Piniella, bless his heart, commented that Perez is mostly a defensive player, which was okay because the Tigers "have enough power in their lineup." To me, Magglio Ordoñez and Craig Monroe is not enough power to make up for Perez batting second. Marcus Thames would help, but he was left out of the lineup. Chris Shelton would help, but he was left off the roster, which is the reason Perez is playing in the first place. I think Lou is wrong, and that Leyland should mostly focus on motivating his team, and leave the lineup stuff to the bench or hitting coach.

0 R, 0 H, 0 E, 0 LOB

Oakland 1, Detroit 1

BOTTOM 3rd:

-Another great at-bat for Kotsay. He's been the only Oakland hitter to not do Verlander any favors.

-As I type that, Bradley launches a YAK. How did Bradley get the timing on that off-speed first pitch of the at-bat? Great hit.

2 R, 2 H, 0 E, 0 LOB

Oakland 3, Detroit 1

SIDE NOTE: Anyone else take offense to Chevrolet making money purely off being "very American, like apple pie" or some shit? No one else thinks this is ridiculous? Okay, back to baseball...

TOP 4th:

-Lyons: "How much of a rock star is Swisher?!" I don't know, a fair amount?

-Piniella: "I wish I could dance like that!" Sigh. Meanwhile, Loaiza is in a jam.

-Piniella also thinks Polanco should have run on Bradley's arm, possibly making the first out at third base. (Lyons: "I'm with you!") I don't really agree with him, with Carlos Guillen coming up, but if the Tigers want to scratch away (Har!), I guess try it... nah, don't try it. Guillen-Pudge-Monroe? No outs? Loaiza shaky this inning? Take your chances from 2nd. (These are all easy decisions to make from a couch, rather than while running.)

-Lyons: "They say that he hits balls so deep into the upper deck, no matter where they go!" He wasn't cut off, that was the end of his thought.

-A rare defensive miscue from Chavez leads to two more runs. Chavez has 17 FRAA this year, second-highest in his Gold Glove-studded career. Interestingly, it is scored a hit. It was a towards the edge of his range, but he seemed to miss it because he was hurrying to get the DP. Chavez should have gotten at least one out on the play.

4 R, 4 H, 0 E, 1 LOB

Detroit 5, Oakland 3

BOTTOM 4th:

-FOXTRAX sucks compared to K-Zone. Can't they afford something better? FOX is the flagship of Newscorp, and ESPN can't be higher than fifth on Disney's list of priorities...

-Verlander is dealing. Macha must be thinking "When does Kotsay come up again...."

0 R, 1 H, 0 E, 1 LOB

Detroit 5, Oakland 3

TOP 5th:

0 R, 1 H, 0 E, 1 LOB

Detroit 5, Oakland 3

BOTTOM 5th:

-Have you ever heard of D'Ángelo Jiménez? Me neither. This season: .183/.333/.268. A team of D'Ángelo Jiménez's would score a run every two games or so. I guess when you're the defensive backup for a defensive backup for Marco Scutaro, you ain't gonna be much of a hitter.

-The baseball coach at my college, a great coach, would bench any player that swung on 3-0. Not a bad philosophy. I think I would bench any player that swung on 3-0 and didn't get a hit. Subjective? You betcha. But I'm trying to win games here. (I mention this because Jason Kendall did not swing on 3-0. Good boy.)

-This game is, ironically, a much bigger test for Verlander than game two against New York. He has now gone 3-0 on two consecutive batters with a man on... and now he walks Kotsay to get to Bradley. It's been interesting, in this game you can really see when Verlander is being smart and when he isn't, in terms of pitch selection. The difference between how the batters handle the at-bats is night and day. (By the time I finished writing that sentence, Verlander had gone to 2-0 on Bradley. Let's watch.)

-Bad Frank Thomas! Do not swing on the first pitch when Verlander has gone 2-0 to the last three consecutive batters! Bad, bad Frank Thomas!

0 R, 1 H, 0 E, 0 LOB

Detroit 5, Oakland 3

TOP 6th:

-Steve Lyons and Lou Piniella are officially the worst broadcasting duo in baseball. Thom Brenneman is inoffensive.

-Holy shit, these guys are bad. The baseball analysis is not terrible, but I hate the banter, it's at McCarver or Kay level right now.

-Kendall and Loaiza need to be a little more comfortable with each other. Loaiza was shaking him off during the jam in the fourth, and now Kendall comes out to talk at 1-1 with two outs and no one on on Monroe. And Monroe hits a gapper.

-Earlier I criticized Leyland for leaving Marcus Thames out of the lineup. Well, Alexis Gomez now has four RBI after a big dinger off Loaiza. I'll tip my hat to you on this one, Jim.

2 R, 2 H, 0 E, 0 LOB

Detroit 7, Oakland 3

BOTTOM 6th:

-After the Yankees' early exit from the playoffs, that "A-Rod, if you're interested, there's a future for you in the beverage distribution industry" commercial seems a lot less ironic. (DISCLAIMER: I am a big A-Rod fan and think he should stay in NY if the Yankees know what's good for them. I just think this is funny considering all the speculation.)

-Why does the whole infield need to have a mound conference after the solo home run? I'm a fan of team unity and all that bullshit, but that seems a little touchy-feely.

-Jay Payton smokes a liner off of Verlander that is caught by Monroe. Leyland still comes to get him. I remember once when I was a young baseball fan, someone hit a hard liner off of a Yankee reliever that was caught by Paul O'Neill. Torre came out to make a switch and I turned around to my Dad and said "I think he's changing the pitcher because even though he got him out, that was a good hit." I like to think of that moment as my introduction to sabermetrics.

-Speaking of which, Leyland brings in a lefty to force Swisher to hit righty

Swisher hitting left: .241/.360/.489
Swisher hitting right: .291/.406/.504

Swisher is 1-for-2 against Ledezma, and only seven of his 35 home runs are from the right side. Me, I'll take the chance he'll hit a home run over his forty point higher OBP from the right side, thank you very much.

-Bad Marco Scutaro! Do not swing at the first pitch when Ledezma just walked the man before you! Bad, bad Marco Scutaro!

-Thom Brenneman just called Batting Average on the First Pitch "the most misleading stat in baseball", because they only count balls put in play. What about RBI? While it is true that many batters who swing and miss may get lucky on the occasional first pitch and get more hits than they should get credit for, that is one parameter that everyone who would look at that stat would know. SO MANY MORE factors go into RBI that are not considered, such as lineup, quality of baserunners, the way the pitcher will pitch you depending on where the runners are, etc. I'm not saying RBI is the most misleading stat in baseball, but I know it ain't "Batting Average on the First Pitch".

1 R, 1 H, 0 E, 1 LOB

Detroit 7, Oakland 4

TOP 7th:

-Loiaza out, Audin in. Loaiza line: 6.0 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HR

-I'm sorry, wasn't Moneyball about the A's? Then why the hell is Macha putting Polanco on base with one out?! Even Piniella is critical of this. Ordoñez, Guillen, and Rodriguez are coming up, are any of them ground ball hitters?

-Joe Kennedy brought in to face Carlos Guillen, forcing him to hit righty.

Guillen hitting left: .332/.417/.537
Guillen hitting right: .291/.354/.473

This, ladies and gentlemen, is a good example of playing the matchups.

0 R, 1 H, 0 E, 1 LOB

Detroit 7, Oakland 4

BOTTOM 7th:

-I love the idea of Nomar swinging a carving knife at an airborne lemon in his day-to-day kitchen activities. Anyway, back to baseball.

-Ugh. Fan sign: "Frank's Oakland's X-Factor." I hate those sellouts.

-FOX has informed us that "Gladiator" is Kendall's favorite movie, and Stone Cold Steve Austin is his favorite wrestler. What a scouting report.

-Holy Milton Bradley. Bradley has as many home runs in this game as in the previous seven postseason games he's played, which encompasses his whole career. Good-bye, Ledezma.

1 R, 1 H, 0 E, 0 LOB

Detroit 7, Oakland 5

TOP 8th:

-Jiménez boots one. What is this guy's upside?

0 R, 0 H, 1 E, 1 LOB

Detroit 7, Oakland 5

BOTTOM 8th:

-Swisher, Thomas and Scutaro now 0-10 this series. That's not good. However, Thom Brenneman just said that if they don't knock in runs, Oakland has "no chance". Is there actually a hyperbole class in sportscasting school?

0 R, 0 H, 0 E, 0 LOB

Detroit 7, Oakland 5

TOP 9th:

-I like the move by Macha bringing Street in here. Didn't pitch yesterday, off-day tomorrow, and Oakland is still in this game. Pinch-hit for Jiménez, and you've got the top of the order in the bottom.

-Curtis Granderson, apparently, does not agree with me. What a home run swing, he didn't even have a leg kick. That's some bat speed. And the fans threw it back! Love it.

1 R, 1 H, 0 E, 0 LOB

Detroit 8, Oakland 5

BOTTOM 9th:

-Marco? Scutaro! Marco? Scutaro! Do you think this actually happened? Nah, probably didn't have it in Venezuela.

-The injuries to both Ellis and Crosby are huge here. I don't envy Ken Macha having to pinch-hit for Jiménez with Adam Melhuse.

-I know Todd Jones is your closer, and you don't want to hurt his confidence, but Joel Zumaya has been the better pitcher this season, that's all. Where is Zumaya?

-Hearts must have stopped for all kinds of fans on the Bradley squirt. (Squirt? Eh, I'll keep it.) Mine did, and I am completely neutral. (Officially.)

0 R, 3 H 0 E, 3 LOB

FINAL: Detroit 8, Oakland 5


Well, I didn't think it, I was sure it wasn't true, but it might be true. Detroit might be a World Series team. Their pitching is, officially, the best in the playoffs now that Zito and Loaiza have put forth back-to-back bad outings. (It probably was before, but I had faith in the Oakland staff to step up. They still could step up, but now they are in a huge hole.) And it just goes to show that maybe Thom "I hate typing that first name" Brenneman may have been right, if Frankie and Swish are not driving in runs, the A's may be meat. If they can break out in frigid Detroit, with Bradley and Kotsay keeping up their pace, the A's may not be out of this series. Those are big ifs. I still believe Oakland is a team that can beat the Tigers, but four out of six might be too much to ask.

2 Comments:

At 10:40 PM, Blogger Walsh said...

"Their pitching is, officially, the best in the playoffs now that Zito and Loaiza have put forth back-to-back bad outings. (It probably was before, but I had faith in the Oakland staff to step up. They still could step up, but now they are in a huge whole.)"

I take issue with this sentence. There was never any doubt Detroit has the best pitching in the playoffs. Any British hooligan can take a look at a stat sheet and see their ERA miles ahead of any other team (0.38 better than Oakland). Besides that, waiting to make a decision on which staff is better based upon the performances of the VERY, VERY overrated Barry Zito, and the massively up-and-down-but-no-savior Esteban Loiaza (read: awful) is .... silly.

Look, there's no bigger Rich Harden fan on this planet than me, everyone knows this. But his rested, lightning throwing arm cannot make up for the fact that the rest of the A's staff is nothing more than slightly above average.

Detroit's Staff ERA:
J. Verlander: 3.63
N. Robertson: 3.84
K. Rogers: 3.84
J. Bonderman: 4.08 (team ACE)

Oakland's Staff ERA:
B. Zito: 3.83
D. Haren: 4.12
R. Harden: 4.54 (limited)
E. Loiaza: 4.89 !!!! His VORP: 12.7

Right now, Zito is the only A's starter who could start for the Tigers. I refer to him as overrated based on the fact that he's no better than a #2 starter, but will get #1-type money this offseason and be expected to perform as such, but won't.

I think it's time for the discrimination of the Tigers to end on this blog. Statistically they belong, even the numbers prove it, yet they still barely have your acceptance.

Carnival, I'm driving the Tigers bandwagon to the WS, I want you to jump on board when I pass on by.

Otherwise you may find yourself in a huge "whole".

^

 
At 11:42 PM, Blogger Carnival said...

Okay, my calling Oakland's pitching staff the best was based on a few things:

1) I thought that Robertson and Rogers were both pitching way over their heads this year. (Robertson certainly was.)
2) They have a team ERA 30 points below the league average WITHOUT Harden or the Tigers' defense.

Now, like I said, I am relying on a number of factors here. One is that all the A's pitchers pitch to their ability while the Detroit pitchers pitch to theirs. Every one of the A's pitchers has the ability to be lights out, with Loaiza the lowest on that list. Haren is like Oliver Perez on a much smaller scale... I always feel like he's either going to dominate or shit the bed. Loaiza is pitching way over his head this year, but I discount that in the face of Harden's injuries and Haren's potential. Maybe that's wrong.

Zito, whether or not he is overrated, is a great pitcher. I don't think he is overrated, although I agree with you that he will get more money than he is worth. I will take Zito over anyone on the Tigers' staff besides Bonderman, who has the highest ERA this season for the Tigers, but I think still has the best stuff. Well, no, Verlander's STUFF is better, but it ain't always working like he wants it to. Zito is also this year enjoying his best season since the Cy Young year of 2003. He got lit up on Tuesday, but anyone on that Tigers staff could get lit up, see Bonderman's season-ending start against Kansas City for more proof of that.

Harden, as you know, also has the potential to be as good as anyone we're talking about. I merely meant that IF HE PITCHES LIKE HARDEN, the A's would have the best staff. That is actually the crux of the biscuit right there. His last few starts would indicate that no, he will not in fact pitch like Harden this year, which means that as I said, the Tigers have graduated to best staff.

Also, if you re-read the Tigers article you loved so much, I believe I state in there that the Tigers have the best staff, over Oakland, despite the fact that the Tigers were aided by a defense that was, quite literally, a long way beyond anyone else in baseball this season.

This postseason so far, the Tigers have proven to have the better staff. No statistics necessary, we've all seen it. Is that what you want to hear?

 

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