The Ol' Ballfield

The NL MVP By The Numbers

A look at the senior circuit's MVP race, using some BP stats.

VORP

1. Albert Pujols, 85.4
2. Ryan Howard, 81.5
3. Miguel Cabrera, 78.7
4. Roy Oswalt, 72.4
5. Lance Berkman, 70.1
6. Brandon Webb, 68.9
7. Carlos Beltran, 68.5
8. Chris Carpenter, 67.8
9. Chase Utley, 65.2
10. Bronson Arroyo, 64.9

VORP comes closest to displaying what everyone seems to be thinking about the NL MVP race. It also brings to light the following questions:

-Is Miguel Cabrera the next Alex Rodriguez? (No, he's not as good a fielder as Rodriguez.... was.)

-Should Roy Oswalt have won the Cy Young? (Maybe.)

-Was Chase Utley's season unfairly overshawdowed by Dan Uggla? (Yes.)

-Bronson Arroyo? (ERA+ of 146, 184 Ks, 1.18 WHIP and by far the most innings of his career.)


WARP

1. Pujols, 11.9
2. Beltran, 10.4
3. Cabrera, 10.0
4. Arroyo, 9.1
T5. Berkman, 9.0
T5. Webb, 9.0
7. Jason Bay, 8.8
T8. Alfonso Soriano, 8.6
T8. David Wright, 8.6
T8. Howard, 8.6
T8. Oswalt, 8.6

Howard takes the expected big hit with WARP; he registered a -5 FRAR in 2006, earning the label of an NL DH. Like I said below, I'd vote for a DH, but only if his hitting outweighs the other candidates' hitting and fielding combined. And according to WARP, Arroyo is the most valuable pitcher in the National League. His fielding wasn't much better than Oswalt's or Webb's, and he had the lowest EqA of the three. Interesting. I wish I knew more about WARP.


EqA

1. Pujols, .346
2. Howard, .337
3. Barry Bonds, .335
4. Cabrera, .333
5. Berkman, .331
6. Chipper Jones, .326
7. Nick Johnson, .325
8. Beltran, .320
9. Brian McCann, .315
10. Garret Atkins, .310

Chipper Jones? Nick Johnson? Brian McCann? Surprising years at the plate for those three. Johnson is just a much better ballplayer than he looks like. We also have Mr. Bonds' first appearance, but it helps that it is a rate stat.


OPS

1. Pujols, 1.102
2. Howard, 1.084
3. Berkman, 1.041
4. Jones, 1.005
5. Bonds, .999
6. Cabrera, .998
7. Beltran, .982
8. Matt Holliday, .973
9. Atkins, .965
10. McCann, .961

Wait... we're at the end, and Ryan Howard doesn't lead Albert Pujols in any meaningful category except for home runs? Why Ryan Howard again?

My ballot:

1. Albert Pujols
2. Ryan Howard
3. Miguel Cabrera
4. Brandon Webb
5. Roy Oswalt
6. Carlos Beltran
7. Lance Berkman
8. Bronson Arroyo
9. Matt Holliday
10. Alfonso Soriano

It pains me to give any ink to Soriano after the ridiculous contract he signed today. And there's just no way Howard had a better season than Pujols. I just don't see it; the "better team" argument doesn't even apply. Albert Pujols is still number one. And he's younger.

posted by Carnival @ 11/19/2006